Well, I took a little break from the Mets while they were stinking up the joint, and, well, they might not be finished yet. But for better or for worse, I’m back with another Upcoming Series. Next up, the Mets take on the Phillies, with a chance to take back first place in the NL East, believe it or not (I choose not to). While the Mets had their worst month since the Art Howe days in June, the Phils didn’t exactly set the world on fire. After winning seven of their first ten June games, they lost 12 of their final 16.

The Phillies won’t be throwing their best out this weekend. They’ll send Rodrigo Lopez (0-0, —), Jamie Moyer (6-6, 6.05), and Joe Blanton (4-4, 5.08) to the mound. The Mets will turn to Livan Hernandez (5-3, 4.04), Fernando Nieve (2-1, 2.25), and Johan Santana (9-6, 3.34).

Game 1: Rodrigo Lopez, RHP

What’s the Story? OK, I’ll be honest: when I first saw who was getting the start on Friday, the first words out of my mouth were, “He’s still around?” Apparently, he is, and the Phils picked him to start in place of the injured Antonio Bastardo, robbing me of the chance to write a report on a name I’ll sometimes say just for fun, the way Dave Letterman used to say “Mookie.” Lopez was pitching okay for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, going 5-4 with a 3.91 ERA and 52 strikeouts against 13 walks in 71 innings of work. At one time, Lopez was a promising young pitcher for the Orioles, winning 15 games and taking second in the 2002 Rookie of the Year balloting. Since then, it’s been up-and-down, finishing as one of the AL’s worst pitchers in 2003 before winning 14 and 15 games over the next two seasons. But he lost 18 in 2006, which led to him getting traded to the Rockies. There, he pitched pretty well over 14 starts, but underwent Tommy John surgery in August. The Braves signed him last August, but he pitched only five innings in their minor league system, and he signed a minor league contract with the Phils this past offseason. Lopez has a high-80s fastball that used to touch 93 (I don’t have a recent velocity report) with a variety of different secondary pitches, including a cutter, changeup, curve, and a pretty good slider.

Last Year: I believe Lopez has never faced the Mets before.

What to Expect: As far as veterans go, Lopez is something of a mystery. It’s been two years and one surgery since anyone last saw him pitch, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see him throwing anywhere from the mid-80’s to the low-90’s. With Baltimore, Lopez was known as a guy who’d change speeds and needed to locate his fastball well to have any chance to succeed. When he was able to paint the corners, he was able to mix in all his pitches to their greatest effect to keep hitters off balance. Whether he still has the sort of command and stuff necessary to continue with his former approach remains to be seen.

Game 2: Jamie Moyer, LHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original report on Moyer here.

This Year: The Mets have already faced Moyer thrice. In the first, he lasted five and two-thirds innings, allowing five runs on seven hits, while showing uncharacteristically poor control (four walks). He fared even worse in the second start, getting yanked with just one out in the third, having given up seven runs on seven hits (including three homers) and two walks. In the third game, he pitched better. He went six innings, allowing three runs on eight hits and no walks. It was one of only four starts this season where he didn’t give up a homerun.

What to Expect: Moyer’s really not having a good season, which, despite everything, saddens me; I was really hoping he’d remain an effective pitcher up until he was 50. Right now, I can’t imagine the Phils are too happy about giving him a two-year deal, but he could still turn things around. Lord knows he’s been written off as finished before. The real problem this year has been homeruns—he’s given up just one fewer in 2009 than he gave up all last year. While I’m sure location has been a problem, it just really seems like he’s not fooling anyone anymore, which doesn’t bode well for Moyer. With the Phillies needing to improve their rotation immediately, you have to wonder how much longer Moyer will be allowed to flounder.

Game 3: Joe Blanton, RHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original report on Blanton here.

This Year: The Mets haven’t faced Blanton this year. Please refer to the link above for his 2008 performance.

What to Expect: Blanton hasn’t been pitching great this year—though he’s been pitching a little better recently—and the real problem has been the same as Moyer’s: homeruns. He’s allowed 18 of them in 88 innings. While the stadium is certainly somewhat to blame for the troubles of both pitchers, Blanton is really a guy who needs to locate his pitches low in the zone while aiming for the corners. He has been striking hitters out at a higher rate, so maybe he’s trying a different approach this year.

Overall

I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but I’m picking the Mets to take two of three here. I’m thinking the Mets are going to do the absolute minimum to fool people into thinking they’re still in the hunt for the NL East for as long as possible before letting everyone down. So I say the Mets win the first and the third games while dropping the second. Don’t have any true reason for believing this, other than a hunch.