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July 2, 2009
  
Minor League Checkup 2: Cruise Control

Taking three games from the Cards had me feeling pretty good, but going 9-18 for the month left me not wanting to write about this current team. Thus, I’m sticking with the minors this week. Last week, I discussed prospects on Toby Hyde’s Top 10, so today I’ll discuss some players that didn’t make the cut.

Ike Davis

Year Age Lvl PA BB% K% ISO wOBA BABIP
2008 21 A- 239 9.7 20.0 0.070 0.307 0.320
2009 22 A+ 255 12.3 23.4 0.198 0.386 0.350
2009 22 AA 31 25.8 30.4 0.130 0.463 0.500

It’s amazing what 200 or so plate appearances can do for a prospect. In 2008, 200 plate appearances earned Ike the bust label from fans. In 2009, 200 plate appearances have garnered talk of Ike being our first basemen of the future. I was really rooting for Davis, and I hate premature labels of any kind (I realize the irony). Davis moved to a very tough hitting environment in St. Lucie and not only found his power but increased his walk rate. His strikeout rate increased as well, but that might be more indicative of Ike’s true approach, as opposed to the low power, fewer walks and fewer strikeouts Ike of ‘08. So, while his BABIP is high, his rate stats are solid. Solid enough to play at a premium offensive position? Probably not, but this season has been a great bounce back year for Ike.

Eddie Kunz

Year Age Lvl IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP BABIP GO/AO
2007 21 A- 12 6.75 6.00 0.00 3.95 0.344
2008 22 AA 48.1 8.01 3.18 0.00 3.03 0.295 3.55
2009 23 AAA 34.1 6.29 4.46 0.52 4.13 0.270 2.75

Kunz showed a lot of promise after the ‘08 season. In Double-A, Kunz had a good strikeout rate, alright walk rate and outstanding groundball rate. Sure, he got beat up a little in the majors, but overall, I would call the ‘08 season a success. Kunz was sent to the Arizona Fall League and not only did he get shelled, but he also showed off his “writing” ability. Per graduate of MLB Scouting Bureau’s Scouting Development Program (huh?) Jason Grey:

“Comparing Kunz’s delivery to the one he displayed last season in the AFL, it appears the team has adjusted him to stand taller in his delivery, presumably to help his command, handle lefties better or both. However, it hasn’t been working well here. The raw stuff is still there, including the heavy sink on his ball, but he needs to improve his command to stick in the big leagues.”

The latter is not new by any means. The Mets have taken a successful college pitcher with a three-quarters delivery and changed him to more over-the-top before—Aaron Heilman. However, Heilman was not an effective major league pitcher until they switched him back before the ‘06 season. I have not seen Kunz pitch this year, so I’m not sure if he is still using the new delivery. Regardless, Kunz has taken a step back in every category this season and will need a big second half to regain his luster.

Josh Thole

Year Age Lvl PA BB% K% ISO wOBA BABIP
2007 20 A 458 13.6 14.7 0.044 0.327 0.313
2008 21 A+ 402 11.5 11.0 0.127 0.372 0.326
2009 22 AA 296 10.8 9.8 0.109 0.392 0.38

I make no secret of it: I really like Josh Thole. Thole reminds me of the band Fintroll. I really liked both of them, because they were both either unknown or unappreciated. Thole has flaws; he lacks power and has questionable defense, but his strengths of limiting strikeouts, taking walks, and playing a position where the average major leaguer has a .254/.326/.397 line makes up for it. Thole has his limits but is good at what he is. Concurrently, Fintroll is a limited band; they play Troll Metal, so there are only so many directions they can go, but they are great at what they do. Continuing the metaphor, recently both Thole and Fintroll have gained in popularity and, as the cycle go, seem to be getting overrated and over-hated. I’ve read that Thole’s numbers and lack of power is comparable with those of Joe Mauer. The latter is not true. Also, I’ve read backlash against Thole; yes, Thole’s BABIP is very high, and it will come down, but he still could be a very useful piece to a winning ball club. As for Fintroll: no, they don’t take themselves seriously, and, no, that doesn’t mean they’re not “real” musicians. Think about it this way: Fintroll:The Princess Bride :: Metal:Fairy Tales.

Jeurys Familia

Year Age Lvl IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP BABIP GO/AO
2008 18 GCL 51.2 6.62 2.26 0.35 3.16 0.290 1.80
2009 19 A 82.1 6.78 3.17 0.22 3.36 0.273 1.61

While all Mets fans are drooling over Mejia (and rightfully so), there’s another 19-year-old pitcher in the Mets’ system. Familia is flying slightly under the radar due to the fact that none of his numbers really jump out at you. Familia’s biggest strength right now is his lack of a real weakness. His strikeout rates are all right. His walk rates are all right. He has a really good homerun rate and an all right ground ball rate. The sum total makes him a little bit better than all right. He’s been a bit lucky, but the combination of solid rate stats have given him a great FIP. Familia has a mid-90s fastball that he couples with a raw changeup and a raw slider. While Mejia may have raised expectations for a 19-year-old pitching prospect, what Familia has done this season has been great, and he could be primed for a breakout year next year.

Tobi Stoner

Year Age Lvl IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP BABIP GO/AO
2008 23 A+ 52 8.31 1.56 0.52 2.74 0.304 1.10
2008 23 AA 79 6.72 3.30 0.80 4.07 0.308 0.82
2009 24 AA 47 5.36 2.49 0.92 4.29 0.180 0.88
2009 24 AAA 14.2 2.45 4.91 0.00 4.29 0.313 0.65

I don’t get it. I just don’t see it. Stoner is starting to get into fan discussions when talking about Mets prospects, and I don’t understand why. He’s a flyball pitcher that has decent control, bad strikeout rates and is always too old for his league. When he moves to the bullpen I might be more interested.

Ruben Tejada

Year Age Lvl PA BB% K% ISO wOBA BABIP
2007 17 R 150 13.7 13.3 0.083 0.375 0.327
2008 18 A+ 497 7.6 15.5 0.066 0.277 0.268
2009 19 AA 255 8.9 14.5 0.082 0.340 0.324

During the offseason, Tejada was the primary example of how hard the Mets push some of their prospects. Tejada had a seemingly dreadful ‘08 season with a .588 OPS after questionably skipping A-ball. With Reese Havens needing a spot at St Lucie, the Mets were forced to promote Tejada even though he didn’t earn it. Surprisingly, Tejada has played extremely well in Binghamton, holding his own with the bat while playing solid defense. Maybe his performance this year shouldn’t have surprised me though. His BABIP last year was unlucky but the overall skills held up for the most part, especially considering he was young for the league and only had 150 professional plate appearances under his belt. His walk and strikeout rates as well as his power have remained relatively consistent year-to-year. The latter is much better than it looks at a glance, considering his age and environmental conditions. It wouldn’t be surprising if Tejada became nothing more than an adequate bench player with an okay bat and good defense up the middle. However, the fact that Ruben is so young and being pushed through the system, means that maybe Tejada will catch up to the league, and it’s really good to see that he has such a solid foundation to build off of.


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