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July 1, 2009
Buy-Low Trade Possibilities
Taking part in talk radio style trade proposals (“let’s trade Evans and Kunz for Cliff Lee”) is generally a pointless endeavor. However, given the current state of the Mets, non-depressing discussion topics are scarce. There’s only so many ways to say “this team can’t hit.” To remedy my frustration with this team, I figured I’d descend into WFAN territory, albeit without bringing up the bigger trade targets (Nick Johnson, Brad Hawpe, Aubrey Huff). These players have been discussed ad nauseum, so here are some rarely talked about “buy-low” players who may be available in a trade. (Note: Stats for 2009 are presented, via Fangraphs) Milton Bradley, OF, Chicago Cubs, Age 31 The colorful Bradley has worn out his welcome in Chicago, just a few months into a three-year, $30 million contract. He recently tossed a ball to the bleachers while playing the field, despite there being just two outs. Cubs manager Lou Piniella has had enough of his antics. To top it off, he has been a replacement level performer this season. It’s a classic buy-low situation, and a team probably wouldn’t have to sacrifice much to acquire him. Despite missing significant time due to injury, he has been a very respectable 2.5 to 3.5 win player in his career. If the Cubs offered to pay part of his salary, Bradley would become a more enticing option. Paying an injury prone head case the full $25 million or so over the next two-and-a-half seasons would be a gigantic risk, and there’s a significant chance he would be Oliver Perez redux. Orlando Cabrera, SS, Oakland A’s, Age 34 Almost all of Cabrera’s value has historically come from his glove, so it is a major problem that he is on pace for his worst defensive season ever. He is also on pace to have his worst offensive season ever. Needless to say, he has been a tremendous disappointment after signing a one-year, $4 million deal which looked like a bargain this past offseason. With Jose Reyes’s return uncertain, a change of scenery might help turn things around for Cabrera. The thought of Omar Minaya dealing with Billy Beane scares me, even if it’s for a guy playing as awful as Cabrera. It shouldn’t take anything at all to acquire a guy who’s been one of the top 5 least valuable players in baseball this season. Elijah Dukes, OF, Washington Nationals, Age 25 Dukes is the only player in baseball who makes Milton Bradley look like an Eagle Scout. I won’t detail his off-the-field issues, but just know that the Nationals apparently appointed a “Special Assistant: Player Concerns” to accompany him and make sure he stays out of trouble. His shenanigans are more tolerable when he is producing on the field, as he did in 2008 (.382 wOBA). He is struggling this season, and ,considering the Nationals’ new policy of shipping out undesirable characters, is almost certainly available. Dukes is also still young and capable in the field when playing a corner OF spot. J.R. Towles, C, Houston Astros, Age 25 Brian Schneider is a free agent after this season and unlikely to be re-signed. Omir Santos is Omir Santos and is not a long-term solution at catcher. With a weak crop of free agent catchers available next offseason, and plate discipline guru Josh Thole not yet ready to handle full-time duties, the Mets need depth at catcher. Towles was a highly touted prospect, both for his offense (.867 minor league OPS) and defense. He has struggled mightily in limited major league plate appearances, and some have labeled him a bust already. With Jason Castro, another Astros catching prospect, playing well in the minors this season, Towles is expendable. Towles is not a player who would be able to provide much help to the Mets this season, but could be useful in the future. Josh Willingham, OF, Washington Nationals, Age 30 Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is not a fan of previous GM Jim Bowden’s player acquisitions. Lastings Milledge was shipped out, and Adam Dunn and Willingham have also fallen out of favor. The Nationals are the worst defensive team in the majors, and their stone-footed outfielders are a major reason why. This opens the door for another buy-low trade. Willingham is in the midst of a career year at the plate, and has more home runs than any Met except Gary Sheffield. I threw most of these names out there for discussion purposes, and of this group, the only player I would seriously consider is Willingham. He is a right-handed hitting corner OF with power, which the Mets desperately need. His below average defense can be tolerated should he post a wOBA in the .375 range. Which players should be used as trading chips for players of this caliber? The only major league Mets I’d deem “untouchable” are David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Fernando Martinez, Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and Francisco Rodriguez. The untouchable minor leaguers are Reese Havens, Wilmer Flores, Josh Thole, Ike Davis, Brad Holt, and Jenrry Mejia. That leaves the likes of Bobby Parnell, Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz, Tobi Stoner, Ruben Tejada, Shawn Bowman, and Michael Antonini as somewhat enticing players for other teams. Omar Minaya needs to work the phones, but if given the options of overpaying in the trade market or standing pat in preparation for 2010, he should choose the latter. 12 Responses to “Buy-Low Trade Possibilities”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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The clear choice out of these would be Willingham. Get him for cheap, stick him at first and in left field, and let it be.
What about Mark Teahan or Alex Rios? Or do those guys fall in the ¨discussed ad nauseum¨ category?
Correct Dave - Rios and Teahen have been heavily discussed in the “rumor mill” this week so they weren’t included. I’d take a look at Rios if he is indeed available. If the rumors are accurate, it seems the Blue Jays have soured on him, making him another “buy-low” type.
I agree with the untouchable list, although I really don’t want to give up on Parnell and I believe Murphy has more upside than he is showing. There is no quick fix here and if it weren’t for the disasters of 2007 and 2008, most educated Met enthusiasts, like myself, would chalk this year up to bad luck and look towards 2010. People are criticizing them for not having suitable replacements in the farm system. Get real here folks. Over the last couple of years we have traded Carlos Gomez, Lastings Milledge (and I admit, I was a big Lastings supporter) and Mike Carp. We’ve brought up Murphy and Evans and now FMart is getting a looksee. And these are the position guys. We’ve also traded Humber, Mulvey, Joe Smith, Guerra and have brought up Pelfrey and Parnell. That’s 12 guys. Can anyone expect the organization to be replensihed? The majority of the remaining top prospects are playing in the lower levels and can’t be counted on for the next couple of years. That, however, is no reason to start trading these guys. No one is more frustrated than me, but let’s not mortgage the future for an Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Matt Holliday. And one more thing, anyone who wants to trade Wright or Reyes, are you kidding me? Are you kidding me?
The team’s pretty well skunked with all these injuries. None of these guys make much of a difference this year. Not interested in anybody 30 or older. Doesn’t sound like Elijah Dukes and NYC is a winning combination.
Oh, and I’d be willing to trade Beltran and his delicate legs if I could get some good younger players, but his contract is a problem.
I think that either Rios or Teahan (or both)would be good options, for different reasons. Both are relatively young, with some good track record, but with upside potential remaining. No behavioral flags (like Bradley or Dukes). Teahan could play 1B, as well as give DW some days off, or play either corner OF. Rios isn´t an infielder, but could give Beltran a rest to protect his knees without a huge dropoff in production short-term, or play a corner OF with pretty good everyday production. Neither needs to be a star, just a good solid complement to our core of DW, JR, and Beltran. I can´t guess what their trade cost would be, so I won´t speculate.
Getting either of these guys, and potentially trading Church along with Murphy, Evans, Bowman, etc for those guys or what is missing makes sense. I wouldn´t trade pitching (Niese, Holt, Mejia, or Parnell) except for a proven starter that´s still young, because the way the market is playing out teams have to rely on their farm for pitching.
For minors guys, I´d hold on to Thole, Tejada, Holt, Niese, Flores, F!,probably Davis and Havens, and Mejia. We will have future need at catcher, pitcher, OF, 2B, 1B, and possibly SS (no, I´m not advocating a Reyes trade).
Tradeables??: Church, Kunz, Gee, Bowman, Marte, Familia, Putz, Evans, Murphy, A-level pitcher or OFs (except the above).
In a few years I could see a team with:
C- Thole, Omir
1B- Teahan, Davis, Flores
2B- Tejada, Havens
SS- Reyes, Tejada
3B- Wright
OF- Beltran, F!, Rios, Flores, Teahan
SP- Johan, Pelf, Ollie, Niese, Holt
And as sensitive a subject as it is, I would consider a deal with Boston involving Reyes if we got back Bucholz, Bowden or Bard, Lowrie, and maybe Lars Anderson. Yes, you weaken a key position, but maybe you get enough better at enough other positions to make it worth it.
Ultimately, we don´t know what will happen with Reyes. Will his legs hold up? His whole game depends on his legs. Will his baseball IQ improve? Does it need to?
At this point, we´re kind of counting on Holt and Niese to be part of the rotation of the future. Will Bucholz and Bowden be significantly better than them? So far their numbers are better in the minors. Bard is putting up killer numbers out of the pen, so could be a great 8th inning guy/future closer. Anderson projects as a good offensive first baseman, certainly the equal of or better than what we have in the minors now.
As much as I want the Mets to make a move or two, I don’t like the majority of players on your list. First off, you have to figure something is not right if their current team wants to get rid of them.
Milton Bradley - Take one of the most sensitive players in MLB and put him NY? I’m thinking “NO”.
Orlando Cabrera - Where would he play when Jose comes back, and what would it take to get him? Billy Beane is shrewd.
Elijah Dukes - See Milton Bradley above, but even younger.
Alex Rios - This guy is still young (28) and doesn’t have the immaturity issues like the others do so why would the Jays want to deal him? Maybe because his abilities have been falling faster than F-mart in Milwaukee’s CF. 2007 852 OPS, 2008 798 OPS, 2009 741 OPS - that’s some serious red flags for a player who isn’t even 30 y/o yet. Pass.
Mark Teahan, Josh Willingham, Nick Johnson & Adam Dunn - If they could be obtained without giving up any on your untouchables list - I would do it.
Also, why do so many think that Parnell should be untouchable? Other than throwing hard, what exactly does he have going for him?
With how little the “touchable” minor league prospects are valued by people who aren’t Mets fans, I don’t know what y’all are actually expecting we’d be getting.
Short of someone else’s salary dump… which I think Madoff killed… I think it’s just a matter of rolling with what’s on deck.
Letting go of decent prospects that at least MIGHT turn into something, I don’t know if it’s worth picking up some C-grade band-aid when…
If the Mets don’t get healthy, they’re screwed no matter how many “eh, slightly above average” guys you trade for so… yeah.
Not worth it.
How many times in the last few years have the Mets gotten utterly boned in deals that seemed to be parts for parts and… oops… when the Met prospect “parts” were given a chance with the other teams, they produced.
Boo to making that mistake the 15th time.
willingham would be a nice fit 4 the mets. I think that juan pierre would be a good fit 4 the mets 2.He could spell sheffield and give beltran a rest with his aching knees.
We’ve got enough players who “can” play
left field, first-base, second-in-a-pinch.
Those type of players are great…for the
bench. Tatis is a fine team-player, if only
he didn’t have to play every day and bat 5th.
Tatis off the pine in the 7th against a
tired starter or situational reliever is
fantastic, especially in October. But in
July we need a slugger who plays first. Period.