Now that minor league all star games are underway, I thought it would be a good time to see how our top prospects are doing. In order to organize this minor league checkup, I’ve decided to use Toby Hyde’s (Mets Minor League Blog) Top 10 Prospect List from the beginning of the season. For those of you unaware of Hyde’s site, Toby does a great job of offering daily in depth analysis of every Mets prospect.

While we look over the numbers, it’s important to keep in mind recently retired Pizza Cutters’ study regarding when 0.50 r-squared is achieved.

Hitters:
Strikeout rate/Contact rate*: 150 PA
LD%: 150 PA
Walk rate: 200 PA
GB%: 200 PA
GB/FB: 200 PA
FB%: 250 PA
Home run rate: 300 PA
HR/FB: 300 PA
BABIP: Doesn’t reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below.

Pitchers:
K/PA: 150 BF
GB%: 150 BF
LD%: 150 BF
FB%: 200 BF
GB/FB: 200 BF
K/BB: 500 BF
IF FB%: 500 BF
BB/PA: 550 BF
BABIP: Doesn’t reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below.
HR/FB: Doesn’t reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below.

Thus, while some statistics are becoming meaningful, others have not and some will not this season. In addition, prospects true ability level changes more so than major leaguers as they still are learning to play the game, but enough grains of salt, let’s jump to conclusions.

#1 Fernando Martinez

Before the season began, pundits and fans alike began to grow impatient with Fernando. Yes, Fernando was young for his level and, yes, the tools were there but he was constantly injured and his numbers did not back up the hype. For Fernando to stay an elite prospect, his numbers would have to improve as the age excuse was getting old, no pun intended. After an April that saw Fernando hit .233/.288/.411/.698, Kevin Goldstein called him out, highlighting the lack of power, but little did Goldstein know F! was about to go on a tear. In the month of May, Martinez hit .337/.378/.663 and was called up in June. Martinez’ season can be seen as nothing short of success thus far. While his walks are down, his power is way up and his BABIP is more sustainable than it has been over the past two seasons. The fact that he has held his own in the majors as a 20-year-old is outstanding, even though he is clearly overmatched. Overall, Mets fans have to feel real good about Fartinez’ future.

#2 Wilmer Flores

Like Fernando, Flores started the season slow but has picked it up in June. While most of his numbers are down overall, the fact that he is holding his own as a 17 year in full season A-ball is a great sign. Meddler over at Amazin’ Avenue dove deeper into the numbers, and I highly suggest reading his post.

#3 BRAD HOLT!

When the Mets went on the clock with their supplemental pick, I wanted them to take Conor Gillaspie. I wasn’t a huge Gillaspie fan, but he seemed like a good pick for that spot of the draft. Thus, I was a little disappointed when Holt was selected, mostly because I knew next to nothing about him. Well, Holt quickly wiped away my disappointment by dominating the FSL. While his fastball was impressive, there were questions about his secondary offerings as well as it being not too uncommon for a college pitcher to dominate the lower levels. Starting the year in advanced A-ball, Holt maintained his lofty strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate by nearly half. He has been promoted to Double-A and may have established his worst case scenario as being a bullpen ace.

#4 Jonathan Niese

After the Santana deal, Niese was left as the “only” starting pitching prospect in the Mets system, as it was generally accepted that Parnell’s role would be in the bullpen. With the pressure on him, Niese did not disappoint. However, this season is seen as a disappointment to some Mets fans, mainly because these fans are only looking at Niese’s ERA. We all know that ERA is not a great indicator for future performance, look at his other numbers: he is striking out more, walking less, and getting more ground balls. So, why the high ERA? His BABIP is higher than expected and his LOB% is 58.8 which should regress to the 70 mark. Don’t let the ERA fool you, Niese has been good and is just about ready.

#5 Jenry Mejia

Generously listed as six feet tall, Mejia has made the biggest impact of all Mets prospects so far this season. With his electric fastball, great numbers, and age anything is possible; some Mets fans now regard him as the Mets’ new top prospect. Are they getting ahead of themselves? Probably, but the numbers speak for themselves. A 19 year old with a great strikeout rate (19), a reasonable walk rate (19), very good homerun rate (19) and great groundball numbers in Double-A, and did I mention he’s only 19? The sky’s the limit.

#6 Reese Havens

Havens started the year a man on fire, but injuries and bad luck have slowed him down. Still, his increase in walk rate matched with a decrease in strikeouts and the fact that he might play second base—or even catcher—in the future bodes well for the Mets.

#7 Francisco Pena

I have mixed feelings for Pena. He was the biggest gripe I had with Hyde’s prospect list. He has been young for his level, and I guess his BABIP is unlucky this year, but when you’re a plodding catcher that can happen. There’s still hope since he is kind of holding his own in levels that he shouldn’t be at, and maybe he’ll pull a Ruben Tejada. Still, I don’t really like him…ok fine, it’s because I have a crush on Josh Thole.

#8 Jefry Marte

In the offseason, Marte was marked by several pundits as a sleeper who was perhaps getting overlooked because of Flores. Well, this season has been very tough for him as it’s pretty clear he is overmatched. With Flores and Mejia playing well, I’m assuming this Latin free agent is feeling a bit like this Red Lamp.

#9 Scott Moviel

Moviel had surgery in February and has just begun his return. So, it’s too early to make early judgments.

#10 Dillion Gee

Dillion Gee put up great numbers going into 2009 and even had a very good spring training. However, most still felt that his lack of stuff would catch up to him in Triple-A, and, while it has to certain degree, he is still pitching pretty well. Still, Gee upside is looking like a back-end starter or long reliever, which is still better than career minor leaguer.

Overall, Mets fans have to be feeling pretty good about the farm, and this is without considering improvements from Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis and, of course, Josh Th♥le.