Today’s finale will feature two aces: Chris Carpenter (5-1, 1.53) and Johan Santana (8-5, 3.22).

Game 4: Chris Carpenter, RHP

What’s the Story? Here’s an honest question: if Chris Carpenter were ever able to stay completely healthy, what would his career look like? I really don’t know. Back when he was with Toronto, it was obvious that the guy had a live arm and loads of potential. But injury problems often kept him off the mound and negatively impacted his command even while he was healthy enough to pitch. As a result, he didn’t have his first great season until he was 29, putting up an extremely impressive three-year run with the Cardinals. After throwing 645.1 innings with a 3.10 ERA and a 4.16 K/BB ratio from 2004 to 2006, Carpenter was sidelined with elbow problems for all but four starts in 2007 and 2008. He’s pitched great in 2009 but has missed significant time with an oblique tear. Carpenter’s repertoire is deep: he throws two- and four-seam fastballs from about 90 and up, mixing in a great curve, a good cutter, and an average changeup.

Last Year: Carpenter didn’t pitch against the Mets in 2008. He last pitched against them on Opening Day 2007 and allowed five runs over six innings. It was his only appearance in 2007.

What to Expect: Carpenter’s turned himself into a good control pitcher, a guy capable of throwing any of his pitches for strikes. This helps keep him from getting too predictable, so you have to be worried about seeing any of his pitches at any point in the at bat. The one thing I wouldn’t expect is very many changeups; it’s his weakest pitch, and he doesn’t need it to neutralize lefties, thanks to his cutter. He’s pitching absolutely phenomenally right now, and it isn’t difficult to imagine him besting Johan Santana here.

Overall: Carpenter really worries me, and with the Mets’ depleted lineup, I just can’t pick the Mets to rise to the occasion. I think Santana will pitch well, but just not well enough for the Mets to win the series.