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June 18, 2009
Your 2009 Philadelphia Phillies
The first Mets team that I really obsessed over—meaning, literally watched every inning and spent at least an hour each day thinking about—was the 2002 Mo Vaughn/Roberto Alomar Mets. I loved the Mets before the 2002 season and watched just about every game, but for some reason my obsession for baseball clicked right before the start of that season. There are a number of reasons that this particular team meant so much to me, but that post is for another day. The reason I brought up those 2002 Mets is because whenever something goes wrong with the current Mets I remind myself it could be worse: it could be 2002 again. After being swept by the Pirates and losing two of three in heartbreaking fashion to the Yanks and Phils, I took solace in the fact that this year is still better than 2002. But is it really that bad? The Marlins and Nationals are performing as expected—give and take—and the Braves do not seem to be as good as I feared they would be. Two weeks ago I showed that Mets were playing very good baseball especially for a team ridden with injuries. This leaves one team, the Phillies. For all the Mets fans that are worried and practically ready to give up—until the next win streak, that is—are the Phillies as good as everyone thinks they are? Not to beat a dead horse, but I have a specific methodology for evaluating a team’s performance which is explained in detail in this article regarding the Marlins. Rather then bog this post with my work; I’ll just outline the conclusions. According to Baseball Prospectus’ third order wins, the Phillies record should be 32-30 based on their runs scored, runs allowed, and their strength of opponents. However, the Phillies pitching staff has given up more runs than should be expected given their peripheral numbers to a tune of roughly 20 runs. The 20 runs are negated somewhat by their offense scoring more runs than should be expected by roughly 10 runs. Combing the latter information, the Phillies “true” record is 33-29. By comparison, the Mets third order wins stands at 35 and 27. Hard to believe, I know. Let’s look at some other numbers to convert the nonbelievers. The Phillies are first in the NL in wOBA with a .350. In second are those Nigh Mets with a .341 wOBA. The Phillies are known for their smart base running and the stats support this, as the Phillies are first in the NL in Spd at 5.6. In second are the lovable Mets with a Spd score of 5.5. Here is where the Phillies distance themselves from the Mets; the Phillies defense has been very good with a UZR/150 of 3.4, while the Mets’ UZR/150 stands at -4.3. However, any gain on defense is given (and then some), as the Mets are in the middle of the NL with their FIP standing at 4.21, while the Phillies are dead last with a 4.98 FIP. I feel like most Mets fans don’t realize how bad the Phillies’ pitching staff has been. Name IP ERA FIP Jamie Moyer 66.1 6.11 5.74 Chan Ho Park 47.1 6.08 4.61 Scott Eyre 14.0 2.57 5.66 Chad Durbin 36.0 3.75 5.23 Clay Condrey 34.0 3.44 4.47 Ryan Madson 33.1 2.16 1.95 Jack Taschner 22.2 4.76 5.56 Joe Blanton 71.1 5.17 4.87 Cole Hamels 68.1 4.48 4.02 Brad Lidge 26.0 7.27 6.16 J.A. Happ 51.0 3.53 5.26 J.C. Romero 8.1 1.08 6.45 Antonio Bastardo 12.0 5.25 5.09 Brett Myers 63.2 4.66 6.24 Take away Madson, and the lowest FIP is the Phillies’ ace with a 4.02. Their remaining starters have FIPs of 5.74, 4.87, 5.26, and 5.09. Clay Condery is their second-best reliever with a 4.47 FIP. The counter-argument for the Phillies’ pitching staff is that their offense is good enough to carry them. However, we already saw that the difference between the Phillies wOBA is .009 and the difference in AEQR is only 24 runs over the course of the season thus far. The real difference between the Mets and Phillies records comes down to luck. The Phillies have won four more games than their pythagenport suggests, while the Mets have lost two more games than expected. The latter bolds well for a team that could see the return of their All Star shortstop, slugging first basemen, third and fourth starters, and two former closers before the season ends. 8 Responses to “Your 2009 Philadelphia Phillies”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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nice article. makes me feel better about our chances
this is expected and IMO, is due to the soul-crushing errors we’ve committed this season. Just off the top of my head I can think of 3 games our bad D literally gave the game away. (Johan/Murphy game, Philth recent 2nd game, NYY game). We basically should have won each of those games.
that’s 3 out of 63….seems ridiculously high to me.
I’m sure you’ll get more Phils fans posts here as you’ve been linked through Twitter, so I’ll keep it clean in the spirit of “sportsmanship”. Its been so much fun the last few years having both the Mets and Phils be quality teams. Without saying stuff like “the Mets will just choke” as you’ll prob hear a lot of us say down here, I’d rather dispute the stats you guys have noted here. The stats say what they say, but I’d rather look at the trends of the last 3 or so seasons, enough time to get a good handle on things. First off, the Phils have definitely been a post All Star break team the last 4 seasons. The Phils have an MVP leadoff man who has historically turned it up the last few months of the season. Howard ended up batting .251 last season even though he was toeing the Mendoza line through June. Their home record is atrocious and can only improve. I’m not guaranteeing a Phils division again, but going into the All Star break we fans down here are happy to be even 1 game up in the division. This team has been dominant in the second half of seasons. Also, during the broadcast 2 nights ago, it was noted that the Phils have the best record in MLB since mid-May (last 2 loses notwithstanding and I don’t remember the actual date). Mets fans should be concerned that the Phils have the lead they have now; it is certain, based on a good body of statistics that their MVP’s, pitching, and overall team will improve 2nd half
That’s all I have to say about that
Okay, let’s try this piecemeal.
True. Rollins has a higher OPS in the second half than he does the first. However, even if he hits what he normally hits the rest of the way, it still spells out a miserable season for him.
Doesn’t it worry you that he’s essentially batting .250 for a season and half now?
And their road record is amazing and can only get worse.
This is all quite possible. But then you have to realize what the Mets are missing right now and what they could potentially have by the beginning of August, provided they stay in the hunt:
1) Jose Reyes
2) Carlos Delgado
3) A healthy Ollie Perez
4) John Maine back
5) A healthy Putz
6) A healthy Billy Wagner
The Phillies need to concern themselves with the fact the Mets will get a LOT better by then and they need to have a much bigger lead by then. Right now, the Mets have to be very happy that they’re as close as they are with the injury problems they’ve had. Most teams (see the 2008 Braves) would have essentially folded by now.
I think there is really little question that a healthy Mets ballclub is better than the Phillies. The Mets have much stronger pitching and their offense (sans injuries) is adequate. The Mets also have an excellent bench, which is demonstrating its strength by keeping the Mets in the hunt now while they cope with the injuries to the front line players. Also, I think in Sheffield and Cora they have added two guys that have the intangible “know how to win” aspect which this team lacks.
Given the crappy state of the Phil’s starting pitching, I’d expect their bullpen to be really burned out down the stretch. They could suffer the same ills which the Mets suffered the last 2 years with a bullpen that can’t hold a lead.
If the lead guys come back, and guys like Delgado, Putz and Wagner can perform at some level of decency, the Mets could be the best team in the national league come September.
Phillie pitching leads the Universe in gopher balls and have given up 19 more homers (97) than the next team (Pirates 78). The opposition is also hitting almost 10 points higher than the Phils.
With Ibanez going down (shades of Alou), they could be in for a rough stretch of games.
I still say this is the best Mets team since the 1980s. Injuries happen. I’d say the only real killer has been losing Reyes. If he comes back with Ollie and Maine, the Mets will be dangerous.
Firefox 3.5 beta is so fast I’ve got a nosebleed.