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June 10, 2009
Amateur Draft Day 1 Recap
Just wanted to give you all a full recap of the Mets’ Day 1 activities. With their first pick, a second rounder and the number 72 overall, the Mets took Long Island high school lefty Steve Matz. Matz stands at six-foot-four, 185 pounds, so he’s got a lot of projection left as he continues to fill out. He’s got a very fast arm that helps him hit 94 on the radar gun fairly regularly, often sitting around 88-92. The pitch has a little bit of lateral movement to it, thanks to the high three-quarters arm slot Matz employs. As far as breaking pitches go, Matz has two. The better is his hard curveball, but midseason he also started tossing a slider. With his quick arm, he should be able to throw the thing with good velocity, and his arm angle is conducive to getting on top of the pitch for depth, while also pushing it to the side for some horizontal movement, making it a true two-plane pitch. Matz already flashes a good one, and the pitch looks like it could be an out pitch in the future. The slider is more of a show me right now, and it doesn’t offer the same potential the curve has. If he can command it well and throw it consistently, it’ll have a place in his repertoire, but if not, I’d prefer he just forget it. Matz does have a changeup that supposedly has some tailing action, but as a prep he never has to use it, so it’ll be a project. Mechanically, it’s a mixed bag for Matz. He does a lot of things I like: he takes an aggressive stride toward the plate, he rotates his hips with force in time with his arm, letting it bleed into a follow through that gives his arm some room to decelerate. He’s definitely not a “throws with his arm only” guy. But the arm action isn’t quite clean, though it’s closer than I originally thought; he doesn’t lift his elbow above his shoulder, but he does still have some vertical scapula load thanks to his bringing his arm down low after hand separation, the sum result of which does mean pressure on the shoulder (it’s a velocity creator, but it does carry a price). Normally that wouldn’t be a big deal, but Matz takes such an aggressive stride and rotates his torso with such force that he’s jerking his shoulder downward at the end of his delivery. That’s the primary reason for the head bob that’s impacting his control, and it’s forcing his pitching arm toward his body at an incredible speed. That, in turn, contributes to the nasty recoil in his delivery. I looked at roughly 100 pitchers’ deliveries in preparation for this draft, and if you asked me who had the worst recoil, my answer would have been Matz. Is it fixable? If I wanted to fix it, I’d ask him to reduce his stride a tad, so his body doesn’t dip as low. This should reduce his recoil somewhat, but could come at the cost of some velocity. But it would also tighten his mechanics up some, so he might in turn gain some command. Considering his projection, it might be a gamble worth taking. All in all, Matz is a solid pick. He was on my list of guys to consider in the third round, and while I was hoping the Mets would aim high with the pick, Matz did have a lot of helium as the draft went underway, so in retrospect I’m happy with the pick. In my shadow draft, I initially went with Ryan Buch, who was my top choice for round three. However, I’m bending the rules and changing my mind. Draft Tracker wasn’t working, until just before the Mets picked, so I wasn’t able to make my selection until the round was over. Feeling it unfair to select guys who were taken before I chose but after the Mets picked, I took Buch, but will change that to Texas A & M righty Alex Wilson, a hard thrower whose velocity dipped right before the draft. It’s a risk, but I think it’s the right pick to make when your first pick comes in the second round. In the third round, the Mets took Robbie Shields, who was also on my list of candidates for round three, and I decided to take him, too. Shields is a six-foot, 200-pound shortstop for Southern Florida College, a Division II school. While he went largely unnoticed over his first two season despite good numbers, he rocketed up draft boards last summer when he got off to a blistering start in the Cape Cod League, hitting .429 with two homers over his first ten games before a wrist injury sidelined him for the rest of the summer. The Cape Cod League’s a wood bat league that is notoriously difficult on hitters, so his showing was really impressive. Before the season, there was talk Shields could be a first-round pick. It didn’t happen, because Shields only hit .345/.448/.518, disappointing numbers for an elite player in a Division II school. Shields’s best trait is his bat. His bat speed is very good, and there aren’t any holes in his swing, which is a little strange. He sets up low with his hands held just below his armpits and his legs spread wide. As the ball approaches, his hand load is backwards, which lengthens his swing path and stiffens his lead arm. The problem with stiffening your lead arm is that it impairs your ability to quickly your swing mid-pitch. Once you begin to swing, you’re committed to that path. Luckily, Shields’s hands are quick enough where he can compensate to some degree and catch up to unexpected fastballs. With better pitch recognition—which should be the first thing Shields works on as a Met—he could compensate for breaking stuff, also. As a timing mechanism, he rocks backward, putting all his weight on his back leg, and there is a weight transfer with hip rotation as he swings. That, along with his bat speed, insures that Shields can drive the ball well into the gaps, though homeruns will be occasional. Shields’s approach at the plate has drawn some criticism also. While he is a disciplined hitter who’s willing to take a walk when it’s offered, he has a tendency to get pull-happy. Defensively, there’s a good chance he stays at short. His footwork, hands, and arm will all handle the position well, but there are some reservations about his range. He’s only got average speed, and that may hurt his range as a pro. All those skills do project well at second, however, where his speed will be less of a factor. Asked to draw a comparison, I’d say Shields most reminds me of Jeff Keppinger, who is very capable of lining the ball into the gaps while posting superior batting averages. Like Shields, Kepp is iffy at short, and plays better at second. 22 Responses to “Amateur Draft Day 1 Recap”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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So word on the street is Matz wants a $1M bonus….Do we think the mets will pay it?
Slot busters!
link
with their fourth rounder, the Mets took a JC outfielder I know little about, Darrell Ciciliani.
Ciciliani is a raw-ish speedster from a Washington State Junior College. He’s not a tremendous athlete though, but he’s got some power potential. He’s quite raw, and I’m not sure about his bat speed. My guy is Jeremy Hazelbaker, a Ball State outfielder.
5th round selection is an AWESOME name: Damien Magnifico. I’d draft him on principle.
My selection is Jeff Malm, an intriguing HS first base bat. Taking a gamble that the guy I really wanted in the fifth will still be there in the sixth.
Magnifico I should say is a very high upside guy, only 6-1, and his fastball is straight, but he’s already throwing 95 and wants a seven figure bonus.
Alex, I wanted us to pick Malm last night. I started reading up on him and I like the kid
David Buchanan, the Mets’ #6 is a fairly well regarded JC prospect out of Florida. I like the pick; he throws 90-94, and the arm action really isn’t bad, flashes a good curve, nice stride. Looks like he might have some timing issues that could help his command. You know, I kind of like this one, and I think I’ll keep him as a sleeper.
Malm’s a very good looking hitter, but he has close ties to USC; it’ll be tough pulling him away.
A’s taking a couple interesting ones on Day 2. They took Max Stassi earlier, and he was considered a top-20 type. They also just took Ian Kroll who is a great talent but didn’t pitch this year due to behavioral problems.
Mets take Darin Gorski, a sinker-baller with a mid-to-high 80s fastball from Kutztown U. He didn’t face great players, and the velocity’s not there, but I can see how to squeeze more velocity from his frame. Nice arm action.
My pick winds up being Rob Gilliam, because it never occurred to me that Andrew Weaver and Dean Weaver were the same guy.
Next pick is Taylor Freeman, a McNeese State product. He’s a catcher, and that’s about all I know.
My pick is Brock Holt, a college second baseman, lots of grit, from Rice.
And I’m just about tapped out at the Mets take a Florida prep catcher I know nothing about.
Round #10, Mets take Nick Santomauro, out of Dartmouth. He had a great season, and he likes to work the count, tough out. Would be a fifth rounder, at least, if he wasn’t a Dartmouth guy. Ivy Leaguers are notoriously difficult to sign as juniors.
Makes sense that it is hard to pry someone away from an Ivy League degree to play in the minors
Hmm, so our 1st, 4th, and 5th picks are all teenage pitchers? And our 6th is a college pitcher who’s never faced real hitters?
This approach strikes me as having an extremely high whiff factor, a good chance we get nothing at all from these picks. Were there no patient college sluggers left in the country?
I hope the scouts see some major upside with these arms… if your odds are this long, the payoff better be a big reward. (Which is why I’ve always bitched about drafting relievers. At least they’re not doing that thus far!)
Shields is intriguing, as a big guy with good reports in the middle infield. A solid defensive 2B who can hit the ball hard would be a nice asset!
You would think you want a young prospect to mold and work with no? magnifico seems to be pretty consistant with his speed and mechanics. usually you would want a southern guy that plays 24-7 no? I guess that is why they go to the triple a first correct? Congrats
Sounds like the Mets compensated for no first round pick by going overslot on a couple of guys. That’s nice to see.
Perhaps they will also be a little more aggressive in IFA because of the extra coin as well.
ya, seems like a few overslots in there
good job metsies
now sign them
i have no idea what to make of the draft.
find out in a few years i guess