First off, an apology: for missing the first series: for some reason, I had it stuck in my head that Monday was an off day which it absolutely wasn’t. Sorry, folks!

Second, the Mets dropped two of three to the Braves; after a seven-game winning streak I’m almost back to my pre-streak mood. It was a tiring series, with two of the three games decided in extra innings and the third being a squandered Johan Santana start. Now, the Mets (18-15) have to fly to the West Coast—without an off day since the rainout on May 3—to face the San Francisco Giants (18-15). The Giants are perhaps the most lopsided team in baseball. With reigning Cy Young Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Randy Johnson, and Barry Zito, the Giants have a very capable rotation. In fact, they’ve allowed the second fewest runs in the NL this season. Unfortunately, they’ve also scored the third fewest runs, and have actually been outscored on the season. To give you an idea of how bad the lineup is, only two guys are slugging higher than .400—Pablo Sandoval and Bengie Molina—and only three have on-base averages higher than .340: Sandoval (.344), Edgar Renteria (.341), and Fred Lewis (.395).

The Mets will send John Maine (3-2, 4.54) to face Jonathan Sanchez (1-3, 4.78) in Game 1. They’ll be followed on Friday by Livan Hernandez (3-1, 5.08) and Tim Lincecum (3-1, 3.25). Saturday, we’ll see a match-up between Johan Santana (4-2, 0.78) and Randy Johnson (3-3, 5.89), while Sunday’s will feature Mike Pelfrey (4-0, 4.89) and Matt Cain (3-1, 3.00).

Game 1: Jonathan Sanchez, LHP

What’s the Story? The Giants moved Sanchez, formerly a top prospect, into their starting rotation full-time in 2008, and the results have been mixed. He had an excellent strikeout rate—just shy of a batter an inning—but he only went 9-12 with a 5.01 ERA. The primary culprit was his walk rate, but to make matters worse, looking at his flyball rates, he may have been lucky homerun-wise, too. Despite this, it was certainly reasonable to think, however, that with some small refinements to his control, he could be a valuable starting pitcher in the major leagues. But that hasn’t happened yet in 2009; he’s walked 22 men in 26.1 innings. Sanchez only throws 92 or so, but it moves, and he has a deceptive delivery that makes it look even faster. He also throws a very good changeup and a decent slider.

Last Year: Sanchez started twice against the Mets with mixed results (sense a pattern?). In the first, he went seven, allowed two runs on six hits and three walks, and struck out eight. The second didn’t go as well. He labored over four innings, striking out six but also giving up a trio of threes: three runs, three hits, three walks.

What to Expect: Right now, there’s no reason to think Sanchez is capable of throwing quality strikes, especially against righties who have a .372 on-base percentage against him over his career. He’s walking the entire world, and while he’s still getting his swings-and-misses, that’s all the more reason for hitters to be more patient. Sanchez looks all the world like a pitcher who’ll beat himself if given the chance, and hitters need to do all they can to let him. I will say this: Sanchez may be pitching for his job tonight, so there’ll be some pressure on him to succeed.

Game 2: Tim Lincecum, RHP

What’s the Story? So here’s the tally for Lincecum’s 2008: 18 wins, 227 innings, a 2.62 ERA, 265 strikeouts, 11 homers allowed, one Cy Young Award, 24 years old. Lincecum cemented himself as one of baseball’s most valuable properties, dominating hitters across the league. Things weren’t perfect—he did walk 84 hitters—but that means there’s room for improvement. And thus far, the results are scary: his peripherals have improved across the board. If he can stay healthy—the Giants may want to monitor him closely after throwing 227 innings in his first full major league season—he’ll continue being something very special. The scouting report is just as impressive as the results. He has a funky delivery that can be tough to pick up, a mid-90s fastball with downward movement, a great curve, an above average changeup, and a decent slider.

Last Year: Lincecum started against the Mets on July 8 and gave up a season-high nine hits over six innings of work. He gave up two homeruns (to Carloses Beltran and Delgado) and four runs to go along with two walks and four strikeouts. I know I felt pretty well the next day having seen Mike Pelfrey (seven shutout innings) out-pitch the National League’s best pitcher.

What to Expect: Lincecum’s full of surprises. Besides having to get around his delivery, he’ll get a few groundballs, thanks to all his pitches having some natural downward bite. He’ll vary the break and speed of his curves, giving him a great weapon against both righties, against whom he’ll throw a tighter, harder breaking pitch, and lefties, who’ll get the slower, 12-to-6 version. His changeup is almost a splitter, and gives him a great third pitch against both lefties and righties. I would give almost anything to have Johan Santana pitch this game instead of Saturday’s.

Game 3: Randy Johnson, LHP

What’s the Story? The 45-year-old Randy Johnson is just two wins away from 300. Johnson’s already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame, but you have to imagine that the quest for 300 has been a major factor in his decision to keep pitching these last few season. And despite his advanced age, he was still plenty effective last year, going 11-10 with a 3.91 ERA and a 173 to 44 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 184 innings. Johnson’s stuff isn’t quite what it used to be, but he’s still intimidating, with a low 90s fastball, a mid-80s slider, and a splitter that he uses as a changeup.

Last Year: The Big Unit did not start against the Mets in ‘08. He’s made 15 career starts against them, going 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA, 22 walks allowed, and 114 strikeouts over 97.1 innings.

What to Expect: Johnson’s an extreme fastball-slider pitcher, straight out of the Steve Carlton book of pitching. Compared to a lot of other pitchers, he won’t throw very many fastballs, only about half the time. He does throw a ton of sliders, and it’s got enough break to be a pretty good weapon against righties, though it’s not as effective as it used to be—righties managed to slug .440 against Johnson last year—and it’s forced him to throw the split a little more than he used to. He’ll also throw the split when he needs a groundball in double play situations.

Game 4: Matt Cain, RHP

What’s the Story? Is there an unluckier pitcher today than Matthew T. Cain? In 2007, he threw 200 innings, posting a 3.64 ERA, 22% better than average. His record was 7-16. Last season, he posted a 3.76 ERA over 217.2 innings, 16% below the league average. And his record was 8-14. Cain’s got a good fastball that sits in the low-90s but can touch 95. His secondary offerings include a great hard slider, a good curve, a decent changeup, and a splitter he picked up from Johnson. Now, granted, those ERAs may have been a little lucky. He allows very few homeruns despite being an extreme flyball pitcher, and he did walk 91 batters last season. Still, he’s a better pitcher than 15-30.

Last Year: Cain started against the Mets on June 4, and allowed five runs on five hits over five innings, walking four and striking out three.

What to Expect: Cain might be 3-1 this season with a 3.00 ERA, but he’s really not pitching that well. His ratios are down across the board, including his groundball rate. One thing I do worry about is that he might have too many pitches right now. According to FanGraph’s Cain’s only throwing 51% fastballs, which always alarms me with power pitchers. Cain’s got a good fastball—arguably his best pitch—and he should use it. I think he’s clearly throwing the splitter now in situations where he’d formerly throw the heater; maybe it’ll result in more groundouts and double plays—it hasn’t yet—but it’ll make his other pitches less effective while increasing his risk of injury.

Overall

The first game is the game I’m most up-in-the-air about. I think the Mets can hit Sanchez hard—his weaknesses match up to the Mets’ strengths—but I also think the Mets are going to be exhausted, the bats a little listless. It’s tough to fly to the Left Coast the same day as a game, especially one as grueling as the Mets’ against the Braves.

After much deliberation, I’ll pick the Giants to take the opener and Lincecum’s start. The Mets will rebound to win Johan’s and Pelfrey’s.