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March 30, 2009
The Rotation: Should We Be Worried?
As the beginning of the 2009 season grows closer by the day, the rotation is the hot topic when discussing the Mets. There are questions marks surrounding literally every member of the staff. Is Johan going to be healthy? Can John Maine ever get back to his old self? Is Oliver Perez out of shape? Will Mike Pelfrey experience a sophomore (or junior) slump? Is Livan Hernandez going to be able to be league average? Ultimately, while the antics are high, the concerns are legitimate. I am not seriously worried with Johan Santana or Mike Pelfrey. I think Johan will be fine and Mike will be around where he was last year. However, the rest of the rotation, which is the majority of it, remains a huge question mark. Let’s start with John Maine. The guy was just great in 2006; he leveled out in 2007 but still had a solid season. However, mechanical problems and injuries nagged him last year, and it showed in his pitching. His WHIP, at 1.35, was the highest it has been since he was struggling with the Orioles. He walked eight more batters last year than the year before but in 51 fewer innings. When he was on, his stuff looked solid. However, his season was shut down early, and he has looked rocky at best in spring training. Oliver Perez is an enigma in and of himself. His 2008 was pretty mediocre compared to his outstanding 2007, but he does seem to give credence to the notion of “clutch pitching.” While some may argue as to the veracity of it, there is no doubt that Perez did extremely well in games versus potent opponents. He had a 1.35 ERA against the Yankees. In four starts against Philadelphia, Oliver had a 0.35 ERA, only allowing 1 ER in 26 innings on a solo homer. In six starts against the Marlins, he had an ERA of 2.23. While all of these stats are important, we also must realize he struggled against a ton of other teams. He lasted 1/3 of an inning against the Giants. He had an 8.62 ERA against the Nationals and 6.55 against the Brewers. He was awful in his single starts against Seattle, Pittsburgh, Chicago, and both L.A. teams. Such is Oliver Perez. A-Rod and Ryan Howard are easy outs, but Christian Guzman and Corey Hart are All-Stars (oh wait, they were, while Reyes and Beltran weren’t. I guess that’s another article). Hopefully, we see a much more consistent Ollie this year, but with Dan Warthen saying that Perez is “out of shape” in every way possible, and his struggles in the World Baseball Classic, it may be a wish that isn’t granted. Finally, we have Livan Hernandez. I could not be more against this guy being the fifth starter. An admitted anti-Pedro on the Mets guy, I would still love Pedro over Livan’s rather large rear end. The guy had a 6.05 ERA last year in 180 innings (why, oh why, was he able to pitch that much? What happened to natural selection?). His strikeout-to-walk ratio was 67:43. His WHIP was 1.667. Yet, he has outperformed another pitcher who hasn’t been healthy in almost four years, and he gets the job. Would I rather have Jon Niese? Yes. But more appropriately and likely, I would be all in favor of giving the job to Nelson Figueroa. His stuff is good, man. It really moves. So while I would love to give you solid answers as to how the rotation will perform this year, I really don’t know, and this is assuming Johan stays healthy and Pelfrey sticks to his first-round draft pick self. With all that being said, I am optimistic, if only because I still feel that John Maine and Oliver Perez have good stuff and are hard workers. In terms of the fifth spot of the rotation, I wouldn’t mind Hernandez there at all. I just don’t know where El Duque is. 8 Responses to “The Rotation: Should We Be Worried?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I’m damned worried! Nothing I’ve seen this spring gives me much confidence in anyone but Johan!
what me worry?
Good lineup + good bullpen + ace + avg rest of rotation = contender. And when the “avg rest of rotation” alternates between great games and terrible games, it’ll keep things exciting.
Contending, excitement, no guarantees. We’re Met fans. This is what we get.
I´m not too worried about Maine. He´ll be OK once he gets all his pieces working together again. Last year he was affected all year by the ¨biggest bone spur in history¨ that eventually shut him down. Now that its gone he should be able to get his shit together again–he´s a bright guy.
I have much less worry about Maine than I do of Perez.
There is a chance that Perez is going to eat his contract for 3 years and screw us all over hard.
I havn’t read lately the Johan takong oliver under his wing comments. shucks
If we wanted consistency, we should have signed Derek Lowe, who is maybe the most underrated top tier starter in the game.
We took a flyer on Ollie, and we’ll continue to live with his inconsistency, but I think he’ll be better than last year, and if we’re lucky, a better value over the length of the contract than Lowe would be.
Good line-up? Castillo, Schneider, Church and Delgado ain’t components of a good lineup, not in 2009.
I’m a LOT more worried about the hitting than I am the pitching. Pitching’ll be fine.
Pedro wants five million for the three five-inning starts before his arm falls off right there on the mound, screw Pedro Martinez… God knows how much he screwed the Mets the last two years.
If Livan’s crapulence forces the Mets to commit to giving Niese a full and honest shot, mazeltov. It’s what needs to happen eventually anyway.
Problem won’t be pitching. Problem’ll be three eight-position hitters, four when Delgado’s slept with a pea under his mattress or is otherwise sulking.
This article is good, but it could have been much shorter. Here is my version of the article:
YES. BE WORRIED.
I’d like to see a little more depth there in case of an injury but thanks to Livan winning the 5th starter spot, at least we have a capable #6 option in Niese. Either way, I am more than a little worried about the rotation.