Sean Smith, proprietor of the well-known “CHONE” projections, recently put together a historical WAR (“wins above replacement”) database at Baseball Projection which provides the WAR of every player from 1955-2008. Since the Mets have been in existence since 1962, we are able to determine just how valuable every Met position player’s performance has been, according to this statistic. The stat determines a player’s value based on offense, defense, baserunning, position, and playing time. It is not infallible, but it is probably the best all-encompassing historical stat publicly available right now. With more than a little help from Microsoft Excel, I compiled the WAR of every Mets starting position player ever based on Smith’s stats. The players I considered were those who had the most plate appearances at each position during a given season. This is problematic at times, as, for example, Richie Ashburn had more overall plate appearances than Joe Christopher on the 1962 Mets, but Christopher played more innings than anyone in rightfield so only he is considered. A similar issue arises with Mookie Wilson and the 1986 Mets. Nonetheless, here are the top ten best individual seasons by Mets position players, according to Smith’s version of WAR:
Place Pos Year Player WAR
1. 3B 2007 David Wright 8.0
(tied) LF 1996 Bernard Gilkey 8.0
3. 1B 1998 John Olerud 7.9
4. 3B 1989 Howard Johnson 7.7
5. CF 2006 Carlos Beltran 7.6
6. LF 1969 Cleon Jones 7.5
7. CF 1996 Lance Johnson 7.3
8. 3B 1999 Robin Ventura 7.0
9. CF 2008 Carlos Beltran 7.0
10. C 1985 Gary Carter 6.7
(tied) 3B 1997 Edgardo Alfonzo 6.7
The only player to make multiple appearances on the all-time top ten list is our own Carlos Beltran. There’s no reason to think Beltran can’t make 2009 the third appearance on this list, especially considering his recovery from last year’s knee surgery and strong performance in the World Baseball Classic. If the Mets made the playoffs in 2007, Wright would’ve been a shoo-in for the MVP Award, posting a better WAR than any National League player except Albert Pujols. Gilkey’s 1996 had already taken on mythical proportions in my eyes, and this stat only confirms my perception. Lance Johnson set the single season team record for hits and triples in 1996, and his overall performance that year appears to be one of the best ever. Notice something here? There’s so sign of Mike Piazza. No sign of Darryl Strawberry. Both are hurt by their weak performance in the field. This is not to say that either player’s time with the Mets should be downplayed, but it is an illustration of the importance of defense. To complement the top ten best seasons, I present the top-ten worst seasons according to WAR:
Place Pos Year Player WAR
367. SS 1998 Rey Ordonez -1.4
368. 2B 1978 Doug Flynn -1.7
(tied) 3B 1971 Bob Aspromonte -1.7
(tied) 3B 2003 Ty Wigginton -1.7
371. 3B 1982 Hubie Brooks -1.8
372. SS 1964 Roy McMillan -1.9
(tied) SS 1981 Frank Taveras -1.9
374. 2B 1979 Doug Flynn -2.0
375. 1B 1979 Willie Montanez -2.1
376. CF 1999 Brian McRae -2.7
Younger fans, including myself, probably never saw some of these guys play. However, I’m definitely surprised to see Ty Wigginton on this list, given his strong reputation. I’m also somewhat surprised about Brian McRae. Did he really post the least valuable individual season in Mets history? According to Smith’s statistics, yes. Rey Ordonez was a great fielder most seasons, and his awful performance at the plate could be forgiven because of defensive runs saved at a premium position. However, 1998 was not one of those seasons. If the Mets fielded a replacement level shortstop in 1998 they may have made the playoffs. God Bless Doug Flynn, the only Met to make multiple appearances on this bottom-10 list. Performances like his and Willie Montanez’s demonstrate just how bad those late 1970’s Mets teams were. Again, this stat is not infallible, but it is probably the best we have available right now.
Just based on my perspective, I’m shocked at a number of these. HoJo will always be my favoritist ever Met and his numbers in 1989 were great but his defense was and always will be atrocious… and yet Mike Piazza somehow doesn’t make it on this list? Edgardo’s 1997 makes it but not his 1999 or 2000 in a more premium position?
@Lunkwill Fook:
The fact that Piazza doesn’t make the list doesn’t totally surprise me. Catchers are at a disadvantage due to the fact that they often play 20-30 fewer games than other position players.
As for HoJo’s defense, I think TotalZone is probably overrating it. ZoneRating suggests he was quite a bit worse, and it would probably knock him down a peg or two.
I am surprised by Alfonzo’s absence. The other two seasons are very close, but 1997 surprisingly winds up on top. One reason is defense; TotalZone thinks Alfonzo was an excellent defensive 3B in 1997, and I know Zone Rating agrees, while he was never much better than average. The rest seems to be the changing environment and replacement level — maybe 1999 and 2000 were especially good years for second basemen.
Or perhaps the over-reliance on defense in the stat.
Even then, really, the only thing you’re going to knock on Piazza is SB/CS. Is there a fielding measurement that gets blocking the plate, pitching calling, etc? I think catcher is particularly, in that regard, hard to measure quantitatively.
I guess I should qualify my original post, what I should say is an over-reliance on rather inadequate defensive stats in the WAR stat. Defense has rarely been something I believe can be truely seen by stats.
Man, I’ve seen a few places on this site where people have shown some respect for Brian McRae…and I could never get it. B-Mac was absolutely HORRIBLE when he was with the Mets.
Defense stats aren’t as precise as, say, batting average, but they are pretty high level at this point (and always improving). UZR and +/- are 2 examples. The defense stat used in these rankings is TotalZone, which is admittedly not perfect. However, it correlates decently with UZR, so it’s safe to say there’s something to it.
Best practice for defense evaluation is to look at multiple stats, as Alex did above. And actually watching a guy play defense adds to that evaluation as well.