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February 26, 2009
The Curious Case of Nicholas Evans
Google searching “Daniel Murphy” yields the following headlines: Mets’ Murphy stays focused Run a search for “Nick Evans” and you’ll get this headline: Evans helps Quins climb into frame The article begins, “Nick Evans won the plaudits when he came up against fellow All Blacks first five-eighths Carlos Spencer in the English Premiership and produced a piece of…” I understand Daniel Murphy is a talented, young starter, but (no offense to Matthew Cerrone) if I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard Murphy “means business” I could pay the toll for the Going into every season, I pick out one minor leaguer that I keep track of daily basis. This ritual started with David Wright in 2004 and continued with Aaron Baldiris, Lastings Milledge, Mike Carp and (surprise!) Nick Evans in 2008. All of the aforementioned players hit well (taking age into consideration) in St. Lucie, a difficult hitting environment, the year prior to me designating them my singled out prospect. Let’s compare some St. Lucie seasons:
Of the three, Wright had the most impressive season due his age and superior batting eye (Ks don’t necessarily mean a poor batting eye.) Of remaining two, Evans clearly had a better season than Murphy. However, they say Double A is what separates the Men from the boys, the players from the pretenders, the wheat from the chaff, the…yeah I’m done. Most of us know how last season went but let’s see how far apart Murphy separated himself from Evans. Double-A:
While at Binghamton Evans’ and Murphy’s performances were of just about of equal value but achieved in different ways. Evans displayed much more power, while Murphy showed a better batting eye and a more sustainable ability to hit for average. Still, with Evans 9 months the younger and based on his past performance, I might be willing to ignore the high K rate/low BB rate and say that Evans might be the better prospect. So, there you have it. Evans should get more love because he’s as good if not better than Daniel Murphy. What’s that you say? Evans and Murphy were actually called up at various times last season, and I’m excluding important data? MLB:
These numbers pretty much answer the question of where’s the love for Evans. Murphy clearly dominated Evans in the majors. (However, it’s important to note that the sample size is a combined 270 plate appearances) In addition, Murphy’s marketing is perfect. Murphy is a quintessential blue collar, hardworking, good looking ball player. This is in no way a jab at Murphy, (I love hearing about all the extra work he puts in) I’m just pointing out that Murphy has the perfect ingredients to be loved by New York (a la David Lee) while Evans lacks that to an extent. Murphy has a sweet looking stance and couples it with a confident, determined look on his face. Evans has a bit of an awkward looking stance and looks somewhat nervous. I’m not suggesting Murphy doesn’t deserve all the attention that he’s getting and I do think that Murphy is better than Evans. I just think more people should pay attention to Evans and probably would if it had not been for the small sample size in the majors. But don’t just take my word for it, take a gander at what the projection systems say: Evans:
*EqA for PECOTA, wOBA for Bill James and CHONE Murphy:
*EqA for PECOTA, wOBA for Bill James and CHONE
While the difference in WAR is pretty substantial, Evans is still a useful player that deserves attention. To put it in perspective, due to his terrible defense, Adam Dunn was a 1.3 WAR player last year, very close to Evans’ projection. On top of that, Evans can prove very useful to the Mets: in the majors last year, Evans hit .135/.150/.189/.339 in 37 at-bats versus righties, while treating every lefthanded pitcher like he was Wes Helms and they were Scott Schoeneweis, hitting .319/.380/.514/.894. With Church’s and Delgado’s need for extra rest, due to concussions and being old respectively, as well as their slight inability to hit lefties (Church .725 OPS last year, .724 career, Delgado .789 last year, roughly .740 the three years prior,) Evans could prove to be a useful backup/pinch hitter with his ability to handle left field and, according to limited UZR, his above average play at first. Of course the latter depends on how Tatis plays after last year’s comeback and Jerry’s decisions regarding platooning. To sum up, I was very interested in how Evans would perform in Binghamton this past season, and he really played well, if it were not for Murphy outshining him, I think more fans would be excited about Evans. I think fans would see a limited but useful prospect that could be the internal solution to the lack of righthanded batters on the bench. 14 Responses to “The Curious Case of Nicholas Evans”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Really great piece! I think you hit the nail on the head with about 95% of what you were saying. Many simply view Murphy as more major league ready because of his K/BB ratios and where he fits into the Mets current lineup. Murphy seems perfect for the 2 or 7 hole and Evans doesn’t quite fit yet.
Another concern is Evans’ lefty/righy splits leaving him looking like a platoon player at this point.
It was a good sign for Evans that he kept his head above water at a time when he wasn’t deemed a major league ready prospect. On the other hand, he didn’t look ready to really contribute yet either.
The Mets are doing the right thing here by giving Evans more time. If another year in AAA means a productive major leaguer versus possibly being rushed and never becoming the player he can be, I’m all for it.
By the way: Joe’s going to be a new writer over here. Some of you might recognize him from Amazin’ Avenue, where he’s a frequent poster and commenter. So I’d like to give him a hearty welcome.
Ah, but of course, sokojoe! Joe, this was a great first article. I really think there is something to a guy’s body language and how the fans respond to him. I really think Evans’ awkward sort of style really does take a little something away from how he’s viewed by the fanbase. Of course, the most important aspect is production, and Murphy obviously did better than Evans at the big league level last year.
As you mentioned, the biggest concern with Evans is certainly his drastic platoon splits. This even played out at Double-A last year:
vs. RH: 207 AB, .285/.329/.512
vs. LH: 92 AB, .359/.433/.674
I think he definitely profiles as a major league platoon bat, or at least a backup major league player that will give you some RH pop off the bench. But will he develop into more?
Nice article. Welcome aboard Joe.
I’d like to see him get a tad more seasoning, to see if, as Danny put it, he can develop into more.
I’d prefer that tactic to having a young palyer with potential sitting on the bench for games at a time.
wonderful article
Thanks for the warm welcome guys.
I agree with the points you have all brought up. I didn’t make it clear in the artcle, but I’d much rather have Evans in Buffalo if he’s not going to get regular playing time in the majors. It would be poor resource management to designate him a platoon player due to a small sample size in the ML.
That being said, if by August, Tatis turns back into a Pumpkin and Church/Delgado/Murphy are having trouble with lefties, I would prefer calling up Evans over trading for a bat and think he would be of great value in that role.
Very good article. But did we really need a Wes Helms, Scott Schoenweis reminder?
Great article Joe!
I have hopes for young Mr. Evans. Heck, if he can deliver an .831 OPS vs. RHP in the MLB (his AA splits), he might be more than a platoon player.
I really hope he can break out further in Buffalo this year. If he does, he could realistically be the big club’s 1b in 2010 (freeing money for Omar to sing Holliday)
Thank you. This whole Daniel Murphy “means business” has annoyed me for quite some time. I actually would have said “with offense to Matthew Cerrone”, but thats just me. ;)
Anyways, excellent article.
The love for Evans is held back partially by his youth and partially, simply, by the fact that this irrational holding onto the sacred bones of what used to be Carlos Delgado.
Murphy’s a little more defensively versitile and hopped in line because of it. Evans is a little more apt to be positionally blocked, is all.
Guilty as charged. I’m so ashamed.
Nice work, Joe. Welcome. And BTW, if you’re even remotely aware of the Geek, you’ll know that the kudos you’ve received, by the players who have offered them, are not to be understated.
fattlipp - I’m a longtime reader of MetsGeek, so I really do apperciate the kudos from all.
modernkicks - Someone needed to say something, the Murphy talk is getting way past cliche.
I don’t think fans are the only ones who dislike him. Most scouts and prospect analysts seem to have pretty low opinions of him too.
I love this post, as I’m a fan of Nick Evans. Furthermore, I’ve never posted on this site before, but am now being drawn out of silence because you referenced Battles! I honestly couldn’t be happier right now (stats, music, nork). Thanks.