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February 12, 2009
An Obituary for the Offseason
My colleague Mike Newman gave out the offseason grades last month, bringing on quite a comment controversy. We now have a nice new poll to the right of this column asking us to grade the offseason, which shows quite a bit of optimism in comparison to how I and Mike think about it. I’m going to take a different approach. I think we can move beyond clichéd and antiquated offseason grades systems and instead I shall take up a new tactic: I am going to rate the Mets based on what they accomplished at each of their problem areas with an animated picture that I think properly showcases their achievements. CATCHER What they had Some wouldn’t call this a problem area. Brian Schneider put up an 87 OPS+ with decent defense, putting him squarely in the argument for 15-20th best starting catcher last year, not counting his durability issues. Speaking of durability issues, hello Darth Catcher! Please stay healthy long enough next year to ensure the Mets don’t have to go to Robinson Cancel. All we ask is 200 at-bats. The other three catchers on the replacement-level wheel of doom played about how you would’ve expected. Raul Casanova is, I think, qualified to be a backup catcher at this point. What they did Well, most of the ability to upgrade the catcher position came via trades. Considering that the Red Sox, with all their prospects, were not able to pry Miguel Montero from Arizona, Kelly Shoppach from Cleveland, or any of the Rangers’ young catchers away, I think you can glean that the market price was a little too rich for Omar’s blood. Jason Varitek was arguably not an upgrade as the “best” available catcher on the market, though Dave Ross’s Braves contract sure looks nice now. Recently it’s come out that the Mets’ brass is willing to trade Castro because they think Cancel is an adequate backup catcher. I hope this is a joke and it really means “Ivan Rodriguez as a backup catcher seems like a decent little idea,” because if Robinson Cancel gets over 100 at-bats for the Mets, it better be at the hands of a salmonella epidemic. The image Solely a representation of what I looked like when I read that the Mets thought Cancel was an acceptable backup catcher:
SECOND BASE What they had Luis Castillo is an aging on-base machine who no longer has the terrific speed or defense that are required to make him a starting caliber player. Damion Easley was an aging lefty-masher that no longer mashed lefties. Argenis Reyes is all-glove Triple-A fodder. To keep this short, this position was a disaster in 2008. What they did They signed Alex Cora, a veteran that is essentially Argenis Reyes with a chance of taking a walk every now and then, for three fifths of the money that the Angels used to sign Bobby Abreu. In the meantime, Orlando Hudson, Ray Durham, Mark Grudzielanek, and Adam Kennedy are all free agents, and all of them are (at least) arguably better than Cora. I guess this goes to show the lengths to which Mets brass will go to refuse that they made a mistake with Castillo’s contract. It wasn’t enough to get a mediocre backup player to make Castillo look good; they also had to pay him like he wasn’t one so it looked like they were doing something to address the problem. The image
CORNER OUTFIELD What they had Ryan Church was a solid defensive outfielder and had a terrific few months before suffering multiple head traumas. Fernando Tatis was a wonderful surprise that came out of nowhere, but who will probably at least fall back to earth if not completely crater in 2009. Dan Murphy had a phenomenal few months, but doesn’t have the minor league track record to support those numbers. Angel Pagan also had a few hot weeks but also doesn’t have a track record of success. Moises Alou existed at some point, I think. Endy Chavez was a fantastic defensive replacement who was stretched as an everyday player. Nick Evans showed some solid lefty-mashing skills as a youngster. Marlon Anderson made us all wonder who he has nude photos of. The corner outfield has some good pieces, but all of them are either platoon players or question marks as far as their ability to handle the load. What they did Curled up in the fetal position and pretended Manny Ramirez didn’t exist. Fans watched Bobby Abreu take a very reasonable deal that the Mets would’ve had to go over the “budget” by a very small amount of money to match. They also pretended that Adam Dunn didn’t exist, too. Way before that, they went after Raul Ibanez with interest for some reason. Supposedly the Mets are considering Ken Griffey Jr., which I think is a neat idea in theory, considering it has a parallel to the Willie Mays acquisition. Doesn’t it just add another question mark though? In conclusion: nothing. The image
ROTATION What they had The best pitcher in baseball. Two youngsters with good track records of performance but question marks about their durability due to Maine’s dead arm last year and Pelfrey running into the Verducci effect. A solid but unspectacular young starter in Oliver Perez, who is very talented but not completely reliable. Aging hall-of-famer Pedro Martinez, who had the worst year of his career in the face of multiple injuries, contributed very little to the club when he was healthy enough to do so. A pupu platter of players who were not that good (Nelson Figueroa, Claudio Vargas) or not ready yet (Jon Niese) to fill in for Pedro. What they did Let the most reliable starter on the market sign with our division rival over budgeted money, then re-signed Oliver Perez for $3 million per season too much because they had budgeted that money there anyway. Gave Tim Redding guaranteed money for some reason when many pitchers like him or better than him are accepting spring training invites. Signed Freddy Garcia to a reasonable gamble contract. I don’t think that you can say the rotation was improved or downgraded that much. It was an adequate job, but the one-two combo of losing Lowe and overpaying Ollie really hurt in an offseason where creative bookkeeping seems to be in position to reap a ton of benefits. The image
BULLPEN What they had A bunch of situational pitchers, two-thirds of a typical Billy Wagner season, two once-reliable middle relievers who watched their ERAs implode in Heilman and Sanchez. A total mess without Wagner. What they did Went out and got the two best closers that were available, regardless of money, and did it quickly and without overpaying. This is the version of Omar that I’d like to see more of. In retrospect, due to the weird free agent market, they could have probably signed Juan Cruz and not given up anyone involved in the Putz trade or re-appropriated the KRod money to fix more holes. You can’t really get too caught up in that though, these were the top tier guys and Omar went out and got the best he could for our biggest problem area. There’s also the possibility that someone like Will Ohman could still be coming at a bargain rate too, which couldn’t hurt, especially if it frees Feliciano up for more non-situational work. The image
OVERALL I still can’t shake the feeling that this team hasn’t done enough. The bullpen acquisitions were great, but the bullpen is often the least important part of team construction and the rest of the problem areas were not addressed with anyone that would improve last years team. They are relying on the new pen to keep the leads they get and hoping that our share of the question marks come out in our favor. I am also incredibly disappointed in the front office for the uncreative way they handled how this market has shook out. This should’ve been the offseason to not worry about the luxury tax and put the best team on the field that they possibly could have. Instead, they are the 2008 Mets with a bullpen. I would love to join the glass half-full folks, and I admit I may be letting my bias on the offseason color how I expect the results on the field to play out, but I can see many ways that this club becomes the third straight Mets squad to not make the playoffs and many ways that the club could have been built to avoid the possibility. The image
39 Responses to “An Obituary for the Offseason”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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The 2 worst parts about the Cora contract.
1. 2.5 million could have gotten you Craig Counsell, an all around better player than Cora by a lot, AND Eric Hinske, who would have been our best bat off the bench and able to play the corner infield spots (aka a reason for Marlon Anderson to never be heard from again).
2. Supposedly the front office is now trying to move Castro in order to cut 2.5 million from the payroll. Yes 2.5 million as in the same amount we’re paying Cora.
Ha, this paragraph was so painful and so true, particularly the first sentence.
The image that you applied to the rotation is both hilarious and terrifying. I trust that little girl is okay!
That is my biggest beef, too. It’s not even really that they didn’t go over the luxury tax, but we didn’t take ANY advantage of the under-market deals out there. It’s baffling.
yawn @ all “the team/organization” is the worst disaster since that meteor that wiped out the dinosaurs. just yawn.
I agree with much of your article, Omar definitely missed some golden opportunities that might bite us in the ass next year.
This sentence, however, is perhaps one of the silliest things I have ever read on MetsGeek:
Um, did you actually watch the last two seasons? Our bullpen was worst that replacement level last year!
If Omar made 1/3 of the bullpen upgrades in the previous 2 off seasons, the Mets would be three time defending league champs.
Yes there are other holes, but Omar did fix the most glaring weakness that cost the team in each of the last two season.
So, refering to the bullpen as “the least important part of team construction” is inane given the Mets’ recent history.
Omar needs to be given a lot of credit for fixing the bullpen, it goes from the worst in the MLB to potentially the best. And, if you don’t think a dominant bullpen with one truly awesome starter can get you to the WS, go talk to the Phillies.
Maine had dead arm?
I thought it was “the largest bone spur in history”
I agree for the most part with what you wrote, though I agree with Lew regarding the pen. It was the achilles heel the last 2 seasons (and even the one prior in the playoffs). A lock down pen helps a lot. Ask the Phillies.
I know lew said it, but it must be reiterated. This has to be one of the most patently stupid statements I’ve ever seen in a MetsGeek front page article.
The sad part is, I agreed with maybe 70% of what you said but then you drop a turd-bomb like this to bolster an argument that really didn’t need bolstering.
Have you watched baseball over the past 15 years? Have you seen the evolution of the pitching roles during that time? Or do you still think pitchers throw 300+ innings?
Nice moving pictures though.
I guess this is the biggest problem I have with all of these analysis, I understand that we all want all these great new toys under our tree each year and that is a lot of fun. But in today’s economy where I truely believe that the teams have NO IDEA at how much money they will make over the next 2 or 3 years and where the Mets just lost hundreds of millions of dollars from fraud and probably another huge amount to just normal loses for investments. I just don’t have it in me to hold them to the fire because they are being a little tentative now.
Everyone says that “because everything is so cheap this is when we should be spending”, yet ignoring that the reason why everything is cheap is because the owners (like everyone else) are scared to death of the economy. Lets face it, Mets revenues have been growing hand over fist over the last 4 or 5 years with the rest of baseball, if the bottom just fell out of the market, I can see the reason for concern about blowing your budgets now.
You can choose to whine at the mets and pertend like they can just print their own money and they are being “cheap” because they have “only” the 3rd or 4th highest payroll in baseball. But personally, I tend to just enjoy the team that they did put together and look at what they did do with what they did have which I am mostly pleased with.
PS. You and Mike’s obsession with Lowe I will never understand, I 100% believe that the Braves will regret that contract and in 2 years the hatred of Lowe and that contract would have been worse than anything we heaped on Castillo last year.
Think about it, we blame the money “wasted” on Pedro in that deal, and he was only make 11 mil last year, imagine if he was making 15 mil and was forty freaking years old.
I second this. I wanted Lowe too, but not at the money and years he wanted.
Yes Lowe might be better than Ollie in 2009, heck even if it is probable, I think Ollie will be kicking his ass in 2011, and Lowe will have one more year at $15 mill after that.
Lowe’s contract is going to haunt the hell out of the Braves in the last two years
Key word there is potentially. The Phils were not supposed to have a dominant bp last season. Lidge was a project of a headcase, Madson could be brilliant on occasion, but mostly a disappointment, and the rest were a bunch of tired retreads that somehow managed to catch lightning in a bottle. I loved the Lidge deal from the moment they acquired him and I think he will continue to perform well for them. But how likely is it that everyone else in that pen is going to perform at a level anywhere near that of last season? Oh, and let’s not forget Wonder Boy Romero starting out the season with a 50 game suspension.
What I am getting at is that it’s all about the potential. For the past few years leading up to this one, the Mets have looked very good-great on paper. Didn’t get us anywhere. I love what Omar has done and I don’t think any other GM in MLB could possibly have done a better job of restructuring this pen. So I agree with your statement. But don’t be shocked if for whatever reason this fresh group of arms doesn’t perform the way we all expect them to. I will keep my excitement in check until I see the actual product in regular season games over an extended period of time.
Though he is very correct in saying “that this team hasn’t done enough” because they haven’t. Sure certain holes are being blocked by players that can’t be moved (particularly Castillo), but almost no effort has been made to improve this team beyond the bullpen. Perez doesn’t count. He’s been a part of this team for a little over two seasons now and we know who he is and what we can expect from him (sorta). As far as I’m concerned, he never left. Redding and Garcia are going to be huge difference makers in this rotation? Maybe one of them can figure to be very helpful out of the pen, but unless one catches that magic Philly lightning in a bottle mentioned above (cause you know they both won’t), this team is going to run into some serious problems as the season wears on and they will once again be looking to fill in that 5th spot in the starting rotation. And if the bp has to work anywhere near as hard as it did last season due to a combination of mismanagement and every starter other than Santana not being able to finish the 6th on a regular basis, then they will wear down well before September hits.
One corner outfielder. Just one! Any one. Pick one. The Mets certainly had their choice. And the way this market shaped up to be, they would never have had to commit to any of them beyond two years. Oh, and every one of them has been a steal thus far. This does not include you know who, who isn’t a steal by any stretch, but all of that money would be made up in spades through even more people spending even more dollars on this team. People that ordinarily would never made an effort to see a game at Citi would go to at least one game. People that don’t usually purchase jerseys would go out of their way to get his. People that do purchase Mets gear, but due to the present economic situation were not planning on making a significant purchase such as another jersey, would make this one exception and treat themselves to one with his name and number on the back.
There are problems. Big problems. Biggest one was filled. No doubt about that. But too many others have been ignored and everyone involved in the day-to-day operations of this franchise knows it. That’s why they are constantly going out of their way to tell us fans just how happy they are with the way this team is presently constructed. They don’t believe that. Not for a second. But this goes beyond putting a championship team on the field. Because while I have no doubt that ownership would love for this team to win a WS, don’t think for a second that as of now it is their number one priority.
This is a very shell shocked organization. They have taken big hits financially and this team is paying for it. You would have to be naive to think otherwise. And that’s not to say that they don’t spend money. They have the third highest payroll in MLB. But let’s face it folks, more often than not over the years, the Wilpons have been penny wise and pound foolish. They spend all of this money but then cap it off when making just a bit more of a push might make a difference between competing and dominating. Or they throw money at players they have no business doing business with like Bonilla (who they are still paying). This year is different in that the general economic conditions combined with major personal hits have really put quite a scare into ownership and it is very apparent when we look at the final results.
Are we a perfect team? No. Do we have holes? Yes. Are we a team that will compete for a playoff spot. Without a doubt. Do we have a one of the best chances in the NL to make the playoffs? Yes. Do we have a pretty good team structure for competeing in the playoffs? I think Santana/Putz/K-Rod/Reyes/Wright/Beltran make that a Yes.
Does that mean it will all work out? No.
Of course I would like to have had more for this team, give me Manny, and heck give me CC and Lowe while you are at it, there is no chance we wouldn’t have made the playoffs if we did that right? Right?
We are in the discussion for the best team in the NL and MLB this year and we have fixed our biggest problem. I would have liked to have seen more, but I am still pretty excited about what we get. Not too many fans get to rout for a team consisting of Santana/Wright/Reyes/Beltran/K-Rod/Putz, that is a pretty good and rather young core to get excited about. And tell me one team outside of NY that can say they added more than we did with Putz & K-Rod this year? Got even one? Becuase I dont.
Good article tho I totally disagree with the last section. The mets were close to the top in Runs Scored last season, the starting pitcher was good….the bullpen needed fixed and Omar went out and got Putz, K-rod, and possibily Ohman. Not to mention he gets rid of the two main culprits of last season in the pen with Heilman and Show. This is a much improved pen and thus a much improved team.
We can talk about second base and catcher and corner outfield spots but let’s face it. Last season the offense centered around reyes,wright, beltran and a hot 2nd half of delgado. It’s the same thing right now. Our offense will go as far as those 4 take us. I’m not saying its a good thing to have all the valued tied to four people or to not try and improve other spots in the lineup but the bullpen was the pressing issue and Omar solved that.
And maybe things solved themselves out in the future. Maybe Murphy learns second base and we don’t have to worry about Castillo. Maybe Fernando Martinez gets called up and takes one of the corner outfield spots. Who knows.
Whats wrong with being this? The 2008 Mets with a bullpen was likely a mid 90’s win team and certainly one that makes the playoffs.
I think Chris’ point is that the bullpen does not impact a team’s performance as much as the starting pitching or offense does. This really shouldn’t be a controversial argument - starters pitch about twice the innings that a bullpen does. Obviously, fixing the bullpen this offseason was imperative, but the improvement in 2009 could very easily cancled out by decline in our rotation and/or offense.
JamesinSC -
The Lowe argument is quite simple. Here’s is Lowe’s actual value over the past few years based on fangraphs wins above replacement metrics.
2005 - 9.3 million
2006 - 16.8 million
2007 - 13.6 million
2008 - 22.4 million
Here’s Perez
2005 - (3.3) million
2006 - (0.2) million
2007 - 8.8 million
2008 - 5.8 million
Personally, I don’t care for either the Lowe or Ollie Perez contract, but it’s easy to see Lowe has a MUCH MUCH better chance of playing up to the terms of the deal. Ollie needs to be almost as good as his career season in 2004 each and every year for his contract to simply break even.
Maybe Lowe won’t be worth of his current contract during the 4th year, but there’s a better chance of Lowe’s production equaling 60 million over the life of the contract than Oliver Perez’ equaling 36 by a very significant margin. Any argument to that fact is simply guessing and not backed by anything statistical.
Exactly.
I pointed that our in here:
http://www.metsgeek.com/articles/2009/02/09/2008-new-york-mets-pitchers-war/
Tho its surprising that alot of people do feel that Perez was the better signing. People argue that Perez is young and has a chance to perform way over whats projected whereas Lowe is old and we almost certainly not do as projected.
I don’t buy it. Lowe is light years better than Perez. My bet is on Lowe being worth the 60 than Perez being worth the 36.
Mike, I have a hard time buying that argument based on those numbers when IMO Perez clearly had a better year than Lowe in 07 yet he was apparently valued 5 mil more than Perez.
Perez 07:
15-10 3.47 ERA 177 IP 174 K 1.31 WHIP
Lowe 07:
12-14 3.88 ERA 199 IP 147 K 1.26 WHIP
That was for a good team in a bad division he posted a losing record and a higher ERA (in an ugly offensive division), but was worth more than Perez? You can go on your stats, but I won’t agree with them.
Hmm 07.
Lowe FIP 3.97
Perez FIP 4.36
It’s not really a suprise Perez ERA jumped from 3.47 to 4.22.
FIP is better at predicting future ERA than ERA itself.
The one thing I’m not as pessimistic as you about, I guess, is the outfield corners.
I think that some combination of Murphy/Tatis/Church will give you two good complimentary bats with even a little luck.
Maybe Murphy becomes the #2 hitter, maybe a Church/Tatis platoon the #6 hitter.
And if Reyes/Beltran/Wright do their thing, having solid support bats like that in those positions are all they need.
Catcher, first and second are the disasters in the lineup though… admittedly… there were no realistic solutions at first or catcher in this off-season.
Tons of better options than Castillo, though, and that laziness is going to sting down the road.
It is pretty much agreed that FIP always is skewed for pitchers who routinely post low BAA.
Ollie ALWAYS has a very low BAA; ergo his FIP is always over-inflated.
I’m pretty sure the point of FIP is to take things out of the pitchers control, mostly defense, which BAA would be heavily influenced by, out of the equation. Perez has a low BAA because of his extreme fly ball tendencies, and shea being a pitchers park and us having the first or second best defensive outfielder in the league.
Also if his FIP is always overinflated then why did his 2007 FIP correctly predict a pretty drastic rise in his ERA from 2007 to 2008.
As far as the outfield corners I’m sort of indifferent. I’m not sure I would have wanted Dunn for the money he signed for, though I probably would have wanted Abreu or Burrel, but I do wish they would explore some other option, though I’m not sure what options there were considering the huge lack of trade resources we have left.
I don’t think thats true. The reason is FIP is so high is because he walks the world and gives up his fair share of HR’s.
And like Gina said, if it overstated it, it certainly did a great job predicting his 08 ERA.
FIP works off the assumption that a pitcher has very little control over BAA.
There are some pitchers who, year-in and year-out, have a very low BAA — that is because certain pitchers have much better control over what kind of pitch the hitter hits and where he hits it.
Ollie always — even when he sucked — had a low BAA.
Yes, there was a correllation between his 07 FIP and his 08 ERA.
But I will bet anything that his 2009 ERA is drastically lower than his predicted ERA and that his FIP for 2009 will also end up being higher than his ERA.
I believe his FIP has been higher throughout most of his career, BTW.
I think Peter articulated a little better than I did what I was trying to say as far as the bullpen. It isn’t that it’s unimportant, but that it’s a lot easier to come up with good cheap bullpen arms on a gamble then it is to find good cheap outfielders.
Frankly, I’m a little baffled as to how overblown a few of you took that. Did I not just spend the last few sentences before that saying that I agreed it made sense? Did I watch the team? Yes. I have to pay extra money to watch them, as a matter of fact, as I am not in the New York market. I have probably watched a good 100-120 games a year the last few years. I have not been in a cocoon. I’m aware that our bullpen sucked the last two years. I am, however, also aware that Tampa Bay has built a strong bullpen without spending a lot of money. I am aware that the A’s in their 100 win years never spent a lot on a bullpen. I think that being a big market team means that you have the OPTION to spend a lot on the bullpen for the guaranteed results, BUT, if you gave me the checkbook that the Mets threw out there this offseason, I’d have my hands on Manny on Lowe and we’ll take our chances with those two and a bullpen full of Joe Nelsons and Joe Beimels. I’m not going to get overemotional about my bullpen being the achilles heel, because a lot of it was bad luck, and because the starters and offense are more important parts of the team to keep humming. Which isn’t to say that I as a fan am not happy that I don’t have to think “oh no here comes Aaron Heilman” anymore. Just my personal preference.
Anyway, arguments beyond that:
JamesSC: The Lowe-backers have come out already to defend that contract, so I don’t feel the need to add much more to that. BUT, I’d like to posit to you that the Pedro contract was completely worth it based on one thing: Carlos Beltran said that Pedro signing here was the primary reason he took us seriously. Add Pedro’s contract to Carlos’, and we STILL got a bargain. I’m not saying Lowe is the savior or that I’d be happy with that fourth year, but he was the best fit for this team. Now instead of an ace and 200 very good innings we have an ace and 1 guy who could do absolutely anything and not surprise me. I dunno why you’re bringing CC into this, because I’ve never mentioned him. I simply have said that some of the best players on the market have received contracts that are way below what they should have and I am disappointed that we didn’t get in on that. CC and Teixiera and Burnett shouldn’t have ever been on our radar at those prices.
john: What makes you think that last years offensive performance is absolutely sustainable considering that all 4 of the main guys missed like a grand total of 15 games? What makes you think Fernando Tatis and Dan Murphy and Ryan Church play like they did (or in Church’s case, stay healthy enough to play like he did in the first two months)? I’d love to believe it but I see last years offensive production as like 80th percentile scenario for our team this year.
I mention those names because I think that is where a lot of the issues with our budget came from, the Yankees. They went out and spent a gazillion dollars and we didn’t. I think in a quiter offseason getting K-Rod and Putz would have been handled very differently. But since the Yankees spent a fortune (which gets wrongly tied to the new stadium and not the money that came off the books), our off season takes on a completely different light
Any stat that says that Lowe was 50% better than Perez in 07 is a flawed stat for taking Perez’s value. Perez had a better year than Lowe in 07, no other way to look at it IMO. I think that is part of the core problem with our differences, 15-10 and 3.47 is worth a lot more to me than a 3.97 FIP.
Right, so FIP is an accurate indicator, but it was about as far off as it could have been in 07, but in 08 it was obvious that that makes 07 a fluke. So if we assume anything that doesn’t agree is a fluke and everything that does is proof, obviously that will skew the results just a bit.
BTW, I was not against Pedro’s contract, but I can guarantee the if we had signed lowe to that deal the complaining about it in 11/12 would have rivaled anything we have seen about Castillo.
Ummmm not really…….sorta……FIP works off the assumption that a pitcher has very little control over Batting Average on BALLS IN PLAY. BAA is factors in strikeouts which FIP also factors.
Perez BABIP for his career was .295……pretty much league average. In fact, his BABIP was .280 which was one of the lowest in his career….so while you guys are arguing its quite possible he got somewhat LUCKY last season in that department.
I’m removed from the Yankee buzz. As I mentioned, I’m not a native. It’s not about what the Yankees did, it’s about what we could have done and didn’t.
I don’t care about them not spending a lot. I have an issue with Omar knowing the Wilpons didn’t want to go over the luxury tax and then not using money particularly efficiently. Like the 5 million spend on Cora and Redding, when similar pitchers to Redding, Odalis Perez being a prime example, are going to get minor league deals, and when guys like Craig Counsell, who;s better offensively and defensively than Cora, got all of 1 million dollars. That 5 million we wasted on them, and the money on Corey Sullivan, and the extra money we spent when we bid against ourselves for Perez, could have gone to someone like Abreu. Or would at least keep us from having to move Castro just so we can give more at bats to Cancel.
Yeah. What Gina and Rivers said.
I like our team; I think they will be fun to watch and will be in the running for a playoff spot. However, we could easily be much stronger for the same price tag.
If budget is an issue, don’t blow cash on Cora and Redding, and don’t bid against yourself on Ollie when no team was going to top your initial offer.
We could have Wolf and Dunn instead of Cora, Sullivan, and Ollie. There’s no way that doesn’t make us a better team. Or how about Wolf, Abreu, and Hudson?
The Putz trade was great, but I see no reason to give Omar props for doing the obvious thing and being the high bidder on K-Rod.
Rick, you get better than an A plus for entertainment (does anyone know what happened to that poor guy who landed on his face?) and for insight. I’d have to agree with everything you wrote. Well, maybe I differ on one point.
I agree with the bullpen part but they are not exactly the 2008 Mets. Delgado is one year older, Castillo is one year older, Tatis is one year older. Schneider ain’t no spring chicken either.
Ollie’s BABIP fluctuates wildly from year to year- so much so that its really hard to predict him
Save for one or two outlier seasons, 2003 and 2006, it looks like it’s consistently been in the .290-.280 area the last 6 years.
Pelfrey has another year of experience under his belt, Maine is healthy, Perez has a contract which is probably good for his psyche and mind, Beltran is still Beltran, Murphy gets a full year (for good or bad), Castillo can’t POSSIBLY be worse…
I just don’t buy this arguement much. Yes, maybe we could have spent a mil less on each of these players, but that doesn’t turn itself into Abreu (which I honestly want ZERO part of). If a couple mil on a long reliever and a bench player make or break and offseason where we got 2 of the top 5 closers in the game then so be it.
As for Perez, I love how we all know that Omar could have “definitely” gotten him for less. Ok, sure, because you were all in the room negotiating with him when Omar decided to throw Fred’s money away. Certainly.
I was worried when Lowe signed that we would end up with Perez for 4 years at 13-14 mil. He got him for 3×12, not the worlds best contract, but considering he was someone we had to have, a perfectly fine deal.
I don’t see what’s hard about seeing how that nets Abreu, reports that came out right before abreu signed said the mets had been in talks with him and he prefered to stay in New York but that they wouldn’t sign him for more than 4 million. he signed for 5 million. How do you not think that not overpaying but a couple million for those two would have made him affordable.
And I don’t think anyone is saying Omar could have definitely gotten Ollie for less. We’re saying he bid against himself which is true, reports even came out that said they upped the offer for no other reason than to get him to sign faster. There was clearly no market for Ollie and no other teams were ever even reported as having interest.
Also I should say I’m not particularly an Abreu fan. And if Murphy can play average defense even if his bat falls off majorly next season, which I expect it to, I doubt Abreu would be much more valuable in terms of on field production, although Abreu’s defense might not have been as atrocious in left field. BUT I don’t think that’s the only way you should look at it. Adding Abreu would allow us to move Tatis to the bench semi-permanently and bump either Marlon Anderson or one of those awful outfielders off the bench, and in theory it would have allowed Murphy to go down to AAA and possibly learn to play adequate 2nd base defense, which would be hugely valuable to the team in the long-run.
Sorry for the triple post just one more thought. I don’t think this team is bad by any means, and I don’t think anyone’s saying it was an awful off-season, just not an awesome one either. I fully expect us to win 90 some games and I expect the difference to be the additions in the bullpen. But my issue is, like I said before, just judging the market better and spending money more efficiently could have made a huge difference. I think we’re always going to be an mid 80s to 90some win team just because of the big 4 but after them I think there’s a huge drop off in terms of value from our other players, and I don’t think Omar has done a very good job of adding those in between value players, ftr I’m talking in terms of things like WAR and VORP, we have the guys who are perennial MVP candidates, and he added Delgado, who unfortunately has declined into one of those mid-tier guys, and we’re hoping Pelfrey might develop into one of those mid-tier guys, but outside of that we’re incredibly top heavy and incredibly dependent on those 4 guys. Adding a guy like a Burrel, before he signed, or a Derek Lowe would make us at least slightly less top heavy. Or even adding Dunn/Abreu and being able to bump someone absolutely awful off the bench or replacing the awful that is Anderson and Cora with guys like Craig Counsell and Eric Hinske, who are actually a crapload more valuable than people seem to think, may only seem like small differences but considering we’ve missed out on the play-offs the last day of the season the last two years don’t you think even those small differences might end up mattering.
Great comments Gina,
I agree with everything except for Abreu producing close to Murphy. Slotting Abreu in the 2-hole would have been a huge upgrade over current options.