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February 3, 2009
Reasons for Optimism
Last week I looked at Mets players who may regress in 2009. Naturally, it makes sense to find some Mets who may improve in 2009 or have bounce-back seasons. I present three such players, and one more that is a big question mark. J.J. Putz Despite giving up some decent players in the Putz trade, the Mets improved their team by acquiring the flame throwing righty. From 2006-2007, Putz was the best reliever in the American League. However, 2008 was a down year. His historically excellent BB/9 shot up to 5.44, and his ERA rose to 3.78 compared to 1.38 in 2007. Looking deeper, he was probably unlucky in 2008. His BABIP was an absurdly high .360, which helps explain his poor ERA. Additionally, he was much better in the second half in 2008 (2.96 ERA, 3.0 K/BB) after starting the season on the disabled list with a ribcage injury. Putz has lost nothing off of his fastball, so while it may be a stretch to expect him to regain his otherworldly 2007 form, he should team with Francisco Rodriguez to form the best 1-2 punch out of the bullpen in the National League. Pedro Feliciano Like most of his bullpen brethren, Feliciano turned into a specialist after years of showing the ability to get both righties and lefties out. This was a major problem for Mets relievers in 2008. Joe Smith and Aaron Heilman were awful vs. lefties, while Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis were hammered by righties. Feliciano’s ERA has risen about one run each of the last three seasons, settling at 4.05 in 2008. His strikeout and walk rates were right in line with his career numbers, but his home run rate shot up dramatically, from 0.42 HR/9 in 2007 to 1.18 in 2008. This accounts for his unimpressive FIP of 4.59. Like Putz, it appears Feliciano was unlucky, as his HR/FB% was 16.7%. Compare that to a career rate of just 9.6%. A few more of those homers stay in the park and Feliciano’s stats would look much better. Also, his BABIP was an unlucky .332, which is a reason for his career worst 1.56 WHIP. Yes, Feliciano is a year older and has been pitching nonstop this offseason in winter ball, but he should rebound to his non-specialist 2007 form if his luck improves. Carlos Beltran According to published reports, Beltran could barely run as late as March 10th last year following knee surgery. So the fact that he played 161 games and all but 56 innings in center field in 2008 is impressive. It also might show us why he started out so slow, posting an OPS of .755 in April. Beltran’s best offensive month was September, and if he stays healthy through the spring maybe he can pick up right where he left off. Anecdotally, it seemed like Beltran led the team in line-drives hit right at fielders. The numbers seem to support this perception, as his xBABIP (expected batting average on balls in play) of .326 was 31 points higher than his actual BABIP. He was unlucky in 2008, and still put up All-Star caliber numbers at the plate and in the field. Beltran is entering the later part of his prime, and he probably hit his peak during his career year of 2006. However, with a healthy knee he should be able to at least equal and likely surpass his 2008 performance. Wild Card – Carlos Delgado Predictions for Delgado are all over the place. For every well-written piece saying he will have a strong 2009, I read another claiming that his 38 home run 2008 was rather lucky, and that a 20 home run season in 2009 would not be surprising. Some fan speculation attributed Delgado’s struggles in 2007 and early 2008 to his dogging it in order to chase Willie Randolph out of Flushing. I find this ridiculous. More plausibly, Delgado had wrist and elbow surgery within the last few years and needed time to recover. Delgado’s xBABIP was over thirty points higher than his actual BABIP, so he may have been unlucky in 2008. Then again, his HR/FB % was 23.3%, decently higher than his career rate. The major projection systems predict about 30 home runs and a line of .260/.350/.500. This seems reasonable enough, and fans should be quite pleased with that level of production from Delgado in 2009. As always, thanks to Fangraphs, Baseball-Reference, and The Hardball Times for the terrific stats they provide. 10 Responses to “Reasons for Optimism”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Hey James thanks for following through on this article. Now both the optimists and the pessimists can be happy. I actually expected to see Luis Castillo and Ryan Church on this list simply b/c of how bad/injured and then bad they were in 2008. But the peripherals might not point to any expected improvement from those 2 and it may just be optimism that expects it.
absolutely agree….the guy had carpel tunnel and I’m surprised how quickly he did come back
my 2009 prediction for CD: 30-35hrs/100+ribbies
I think the concensus on Castillo is that he isn’t healthy and any hustle will result in extreme soreness and required rest (sometimes on the diabled list). Most fans would love to see him hustle and play well for 60 games even if it means he is disabled for the other 102. That would be a lot better than his dogging it to stay in teh lineup.
Church doesn’t have great stats from his Washington days but that is the restult of infrequent play at times coupled with some streakiness (which is inself often the result of infrequent play). He displayed nice ofensive skills in college and in the minors and plays a fine right field. He is as good as Bernard Gilkey was..that isn’t saying alot but he could defintely string together 2-3 good offensive seasons. He really could be Kevin McReynolds without the wife - even better annalogy considering the were both aquired for superior talents with questionable attitudes.
The Mets have had a high payroll for teh last while- and that is with great return on the contracts to David Wright and Jose Reyes.
As thsoe contracts get closer to expiary, where will the bargains come from?
Hopefully Fernando Martinez will blossom, and Mike Pelfrey will be affordable for awhile. It would be nice if one of Parnell or Niese becomes adequate.
Santana has his money. And now Perez does too. Maine will earn Perez money (or more).
The Mets will pobably sign someone to play 1st..and if the third baseman and shortstop are brought back we have to be willing to pay them 15 mil each per season.
We need some bargains somewhere…
Currently there is no way Maine gets Perez money because of his injury history, now if he comes out and has a great healthy year that could go up, but right now he is worth less than Perez. Also Maine being a righty and not having the kind of “stuff” that Perez has is a factor.
I think you mention the biggest guys that will be likely to give us good bargain level value over the next 2-3 years with hopefully the next batch coming in last year and this years draft that we cant see yet.
I would hope a more regulated use of Feliciano gets him back to being effective against both sides of the plate. Otherwise, I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world if he’s used as a lefty specialist seeing that they don’t really have one.
The Carlos-es will be the more interesting question.
Even when healthy or at least not recovering from some sort of injury, Delgado has had a streak-filled tenure with the Mets. As gaudy as his bottom line numbers can be, I’m fine even if his stats come in slightly below career averages both in terms of power and average provided there’s some more consistency. Or at the very I least I hope that the troughs in his performance don’t reach the point where he’s considered a replacement level player midway through the season.
I have conceded that Beltran is a player that fans of the game appreciate moreso than fans of simply the team. Unless he puts up Griffey Jr. in his prime type numbers he’ll never be fully embraced by the entire Mets fanbase since his contract raised expectations of him being the Mets modern day Mickey Mantle (plus a mole, minus the raging alcoholism). I think it will be Beltran’s game that is the most affected by the new ballpark. And right now, not really knowing how the field will play I can’t say whether it will be positively or negatively affected. All I know is that we better not see any injuries due to the irregular outfield wall. At least they don’t have a stupid flagpole.
Delgado’s gonna be 37 in June, has had a laundry list of injuries the last few years, was a catcher well into his early professional career… and this is purportedly the post-steroid era. No more late career fountains of youth hidden in needles.
Whatever the over/under is on Delgado, bet your house on the under.
James, great point about the rebound possibility for Beltran. I had completely forgotten how his lower half was completely out of his swing for much of the season, depriving him of lift and power.
Delgado’s BABIP analysis really depends on which xBABIP you’re using. The guys at THT found that older xBABIP measures correlate poorly with left-handed pull hitters (especially slow ones). More of their LDs and GBs turn into outs than with most hitters. Yay for The Shift!
As for Feliciano, I’ve heard all sorts of explanations for his bad results, a lot of them based on pitch selection. Here’s my take:
1) His location was worse than in the past. Maybe over-frequent use had something to do with that, or maybe this is just the season-to-season fluctuation most relievers have.
2) He isn’t good at coming out in a groove. It usually takes him 3 or 4 pitches to find the plate. His location gets better the longer he stays in. Accordingly, he’s better at getting out of his own jams than others’, and better starting an inning than coming in for 2 batters. As he was used more and more as a few-batter specialist, his ratios got worse and worse.
Cool, I found some stats to back me up on Feliciano:
Under Willie: .265 .356 .363, 2.63 ERA
per appearance:
0.72 innings, 3.13 batters, 11.53 pitches
Under Jerry: .297 .376 .485, 5.54 ERA
per appearance:
0.54 innings, 2.46 batters, 9.48 pitches
And, of course, in his more effective 2006-2007, Pedro averaged more work per appearance (0.88 innings, 3.74 batters, 13.99 pitches).
I used the newer version of xBABIP, developed by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix linked here. I should’ve specified. Seems like the old xBABIP (add .120 to LD%) is outdated.