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January 28, 2009
Throwing Good Money at a Bad Bench
The Mets have been busy signing a number of lesser talents to fill out the roster over the past couple of weeks. As unimpressive as the group may be, the best teams in baseball often have the strongest benches. With that said, are the Mets recent adds enough to raise the level of their current roster depth from mediocre to solid? I highly doubt it. A couple of weeks ago, I took plenty of heat from Mets fans as I labeled their 0ffseason a moderate success with a C+ grade until I saw further investment in either the starting rotation or lineup. Since then, the Mets have signed a plethora of players including Freddy Garcia, Alex Cora, Rob Mackowiak, Kyle Snyder, Jon Switzer, Cory Sullivan, and Casey Fossum. Along with the Tim Redding signing, these moves have been met with a collective yawn from Mets fans wondering if an when the franchise will pony up and sign another quality bat, arm, or both. To show just how unimpressive this bunch is, let’s take a brief look at their most recent sightings. Alex Cora: With a .245/.313/.348 career line, Cora is simply a pretty awful offensive player. His strength which is supposed to be on defense seems more a product of hype than production as his 0.1 UZR in 457 career games at second base and 8.7 UZR in 538 games at shortstop are barely worth mentioning. A good year for Cora is worth about half a win. Casey Fossum: A former top prospect, Fossum has been nothing but disappointing as a professional. 2002 was the last season his ERA was below 4.92. His career ERA now sits at 5.47 and he has done little over the past few years to warrant being worth a spring invite, let alone a roster spot. Freddy Garcia: In 2008, Garcia returned from injury to post a 4.20 ERA over three September starts. While Bill James’ projection has Garcia winning 10 games while sporting a 4.20 ERA in almost 170 innings looks strong, two other well regarded projections have him totaling four and five wins with and ERA of 4.50 and 4.68 respectively. This while not totaling triple digit innings totals in either. His last success? Seventeen wins in 2006, but that seems like eons ago considering his questionable conditioning and a serious injury which cost him almost all of 2007 and 2008. Rob Mackowiak: Along with Redding, Mackowiak is the second Nationals player the Mets have signed after being released from their former employer. Formerly a valuable bench presence, his .132/.254/.208 line was a small sample, but enough to show the worst team in baseball his lack of value. If his 2009 value is equal to 2008, Mackowiak should be paying the Mets $2.3 million for his roster spot. Kyle Snyder: Snyder and his career 5.57 ERA are overshadowed by his seemingly miraculous 3.81 ERA en route to helping the Red Sox win the World Series. Truth is in 2007-2008, his value was in the negative to the tune of 1.2 million dollars. Cory Sullivan: a .279/.330/.391 career line as a supposed defensive specialist wouldn’t be a bad add except the Mets already have two similar players in Angel Pagan and Jeremy Reed already. As for the defensive specialist reputation, a career UZR of -13.6 in 294 career games brings his reputation into question. Jon Switzer: Who? Switzer’s last big league sighting was in 2007 en route to an 8.05 ERA with Tampa Bay. In 68 career appearances, his ERA sits at 6.11. Yikes! I understand somebody has to wear the number 79 jersey in spring training, but the Mets can and should sign better. Maybe he’s a LOOGY in training, but at 29, he’s little more than cannon fodder as exemplified by his career value of -1.5 million dollars. I understand I spend most of my time on Mets Geek being the bad guy and picking apart every move and take some heat because of it. However, beyond Garcia, does anybody on this list really have any value whatsoever? Taking it even further, will any of these players even equal the value of their contract should they stick around? Muhammad Ali floated like a butterfly and stung like a bee. Is it safe to say Omar Minaya’s Ali impersonation would include a heck of a lot of floating and very little stinging? Maybe his hands are tied due to the Madoff scandal, but heading into a new stadium, does the organization really want its fan base to talk about this off season as the one that got away? With the free agent market currently resembling the Circuit City liquidation sale, the Mets could all but guarantee the National League East for another $10 to $12 million in guaranteed money with added performance bonuses. With 2009 marking the opening of a new stadium built in part with $160+ million in taxpayer money, loading up for a World Series run should be expected shouldn’t it? As for the Mets off season grade? Make that C+ a C based on the major league contracts giving to Cora and Sullivan offsetting the slight bump provided by taking a chance on Freddy Garcia. 35 Responses to “Throwing Good Money at a Bad Bench”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Sullivan is a depth signing. He still has minor league options remaining. Seriously, why are we even wasting time talking about him?
Will our entire off-season be graded on our bench acquisitions?
Did we suddenly forget we signed/acquired two of the BEST relievers in all of baseball?
And again, let’s grade the Mets after ST starts. Omar still has some moves he’ll make.
Let’s add the following: none of those guys are guaranteed to be on the major league roster except maybe Cora. That’s it.
Mike-
Who would you have signed to backup SS and 2B, as well as possibly play 2B full-time if Castillo goes down? And what would you have paid him, even if he could be convinced to be a backup?
Wait, the free agent market is a sham designed to “slash” prices by taking things off sale, putting them back to MSRP, then “liquidating” them to about what they were when they were on sale? :P
Nitpicking aside, it really does show in the lesser moves that Omar relies far too heavily on the scouty side for his roster filler. All these hitters potentially have “4 tools” except that with the power and lack of OBP they aren’t really credible hitters no matter what the contact rate is, and the pitchers all have big fastball MPH.
So let me get this straight. Omar goes and out fixes the pen by signing K-Rod for a helluva lot cheaper than what original reports had him asking for.
He then trades for Putz.
He also gets rid of Heilman and Scho.
Yes, the loss of Smith hurts a tad, but Green should be a more than adequate replacement.
That gets him a C+, even though the pen is significantly better than it was last season.
Now he goes out and signs guys for depth, and depth only (do we all forget the clusterfrak the outfield has been with injuries the past two years) and the grade drops to a C?
Really?
Now, I admit that some of the guys have me scratching my head, but in reality, as Lunk says above, they are not guaranteed spots on the roster. Most of them will be AAA filler and emergency call-ups.
And if Garcia is healthy, he’ll be a helluva #5 starter.
see Putz, K-Rod. Santana too.
That’s a lot of sting.
Putz and K-rod is good but in my opinion finally fixing something that’s been a glaring hole for 1.5 year, and using a lot of resources to do so, doesn’t make a great off-season. Like someone else said we could easily gotten real impact players at a very low cost, for example look at the contracts Petite/Smoltz/Penny got, and the contracts Dunn and Abreu will likely get, and probably could have gotten way way way better value for players similar to Cora and Redding, considering there’s a crapload of them still sitting on the market.
Also I don’t see why getting rid of Heilman and Show is a good thing. When Show was used properly he was awesome and now we have a pen with only one guy who can get lefties out who will be used before the 8th inning. Not to mention we saved nearly nothing on moving him. Not to mention Putz isn’t a sure thing, we’re basically expecting him to bounce back from an injury/really bad season the same way we would have expected Heilman too
I’m also now sure how significantly better the pen is, K-rod essentially is replacing Wagner and while the pen was brutal after Wagner went down it was pretty terrible with Wagner too, so really we’ve stayed about even in the 9th inning way improved the 8th inning if Putz is healthy and still have nothing but specialists and question marks for the middle innings.
Actually, the pen in the first half was one of the best in the league.
I’ll let someone else respond to this one.
HOLD ON A SECOND. How is fixing a glaring hole NOT a good thing?
I think getting rid of Show (& Heilman) was about psychologically moving on from year. There’s still time to sign another lefthanded reliever. IIRC, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, & Joe Biemel are all still on the market.
Yes, a C+ was exactly what I meant with even with the two signings. Their rotation as it stands is pretty average. Santana is Santana. Maine’s health will remain in question. Pelfrey projections expect him to regress. Redding is pretty darn bad as a #4 and Niese isn’t ready to throw 1`50-175 quality innings.
A better bullpen + a worse rotation is a pretty even swap to me. On top of that, is this lineup as it stands expected to regress or progress? I would say regress at this point.
As for who I would have signed? Probably nobody. There are always players like Ronny Cedeno out there who have no place and are out of options. A guy like Cedeno would have been a great addition for a mid level prospect who could have been minimum salary competition for Castillo. Giving Cora 2 million for his skill set is a farce.
Ronny Cedeno has decent value though. He is about to be dealt for Aaron Heilman. Poor Aaron, no chance to start again.
What is Alex Cora like in the clubhouse? Will he be a strong influence? Good benches blossom out of compost all the time. I am not really worried about bench fodder, as long as there IS some.
The Mets can live with Tatis-Reed-Pagan-Murphy in left field as long as Church is healthy and productive in right. The Mets can’t survive with two black holes in the outfield but if Omar sees Church as a producer( which I do) then he is only looking at covering off left and he has the pieces for that.
The rotation is a different story. The Mets will sign Perez, making their rotation better than last years. Maine is feeling strong for the first time in years and his improvement should more than offset the drop in Pelfrey’s performance. The rotation will be better because Redding and Garcia are a better combination than the turds that marched out there at #5 last year.
Rotation somewhat better with Perez resigning.
Bullpen projects to be better than 2nd half of last year, a stable version of the first half of 08 would be more than fine.
The offense could regress because it’s hard to expect repeat games played from the core BUT there is room for alot of improvement from RF and 2B.
This is why it’s silly to give out grades before the offseason is over. There is no way that the Mets will start the season with Tim Redding as the #4 starter.
Is there even the slightest chance that this team is going to go into the season with Redding as a 4th and Niese as a 5th? No. Grading them on that with that many players left in play? Silly.
IMO you grade them on what they have done or just wait. Throwing a C+ out as a grade is beyond meaningless right now.
And if Omar had done that you would have crucified him for not fixing a glaring hole on the team.
Let´s wait til Opening Day to give out offseason grades, OK? A University professor doesn´t give final marks in March, after all….
Sorry, nothing is a sure thing, but comparing Heilman to Putz like that is disingenious at the very least. This has taken on a life of its own on the forum here were people now really believe that we are trading one headcase for a different “reform case” in Putz. Please.
Putz had a 3.8 ERA last year with 56 Ks in 46 innings and in the second half he had a 2.96 ERA with 33 Ks in 27 innings. He had a ribcage injury not a shoulder injury and the injury was in April of last year. Heilman on the other had a 5.21 ERA with a 1.6 WHIP last year. And in the second half he fell apart with a 6.5 ERA and only 24 Ks vs 19 Earned Runs and 27 Walks.
Putz is a gigantic upgrade on Heilman (especially if you consider his psyche and handling NY), and K-Rod is an upgrade on both what we got from Wagner last year and if the two of them were both healthy going into this season.
Not to mention we are now supposed to get Wagner back in August (not holding my breath).
I agree with you that Omar deserves as much blame for ignoring the pen the last two years (particularly last year), but lets not go overboard on disregarding the upgrades this year.
I think that is a pretty fair assessment, not really a disastrous way of thinking, but I definitely agree that Omar’s bench building has not been his strength more often than not.
Ugh…
I think K rod and Putz were great pickups but we need pitching as well..
If the pen comes in the 5th or 6th like many times last year we are Fooked ;-D
To me the keys this year will be Delgado being consistent, DW, Beltran and Jose. If they dont hit with RISP well then……………
We know the ending
3 years of collapse will be hard to fight off.
From what I read, Heilman was dealt to the Cubs and will be given a chance to start and fill the role Marquis had at a MUCH lesser price. It’s a move worth making for the Cubs and really has no downside.
If we’re talking about grades for Omar, how about this:
Some teams will get absolute steals on several of these players: Dunn, Hudson, Abreu, Sheets, Wolf, and Cruz.
If we’re one of them, then good job Omar!
If we’re not (and especially if one of our rivals is), then bad job Omar!
I’m not saying Putz for Heilman is even I’m saying considering they both come with risks, that the upgrade of Putz over Heilman might not be worth the number of resources we had to use to get Putz. Especially when there were still closers and guys like Juan Cruz, who is still on the market, on the market.
And I’m saying our bullpen was pretty terrible even with Wagner, who K-rod essentially replaced, and right now the guys who would be coming in the 5th/6th/7th are either huge question marks, like Duaner, or one out guys.
Also we don’t know whether Maine will come back stronger, we really don’t know what to expect from him, in 07 he had an awesome first half and then fell way off down the stretch and then last year he struggled all year, likely because of the injury. And there’s been some reports that because of his motion he was always considered an injury risk by Peterson and the front office thinks they may have to work in extra rest days for him this season, so he’s anything but a sure thing, we already know the risks surrounding Pelfrey with the increased innings totals for last year, not to mention his poor strike out rates don’t project well for him in the future, especially with half of our infield being a defensive black hole, Johan’s a slight regression risk and who knows what to expect from Perez. The rotation, even with Perez, is still a huge question mark.
Spring training starts in two weeks. Perez isn’t worth the money being thrown at him by the Mets and Minaya seems to have BADLY misplayed his hand with Lowe. Didn’t fans also simply assume Lowe was pretty much a given before the Braves swooped in? The Red Sox were the heavy favorite for Teixeira’s services too. We should all know not to assume which team a free agent will end up with.
If they sign Perez, they will pay too much.
If Perez goes, then they have to sign Sheets and he will get more as the only real upgrade left on the market.
Another piece on the Mets off season can be read here
Re - The Bullpen: Feliciano has historically pitched well against right-handed batters, so I think it’s safe to assume that last year was an aberration and he won’t be subject to such severe platoon splits in 2009. I also assume we’re going to sign Dennys Reyes or another free-agent lefty out of the bullpen. On the right-handed side, we have a glut of ptichers - Sanchez, O’Day, Cherry, Green, Parnell, Figueroa, Stokes. Hopefully, we can find at least a couple of guys out of that bunch who can pitch effectively in the 6th & 7th innings. All in all, I’m very optimistic about our bullpen improving signifigantly from 2008.
OTOH, I agree with Gina that our rotation is a concern.
All the more reason not to hand out evaluations until the offseason is over.
I completely disagree that they badly misplayed their hands on Lowe, Braves badly overpaid for Lowe, but the Mets played their hand just fine. There is no way Omar could have should have or would have matched or beaten the Braves offer. Let the Braves have him at that.
I am making no assumption that the Mets will get Perez (I think they likely will, but I am not assuming that). I will bet a very sizable % of my earnings for the next 10 years that we will not go into spring training with Redding and Niese as our 4th and 5th starter.
Cruz will cost you a first round pick in addition to his money. Putz is better than Cruz and his injury last year was less of an issue. I will take Putz and the “number of resources” we had to give up for him.
I’m sorry. Did someone just suggest Omar would have been smarter keeping Heilman and using him as a cheap 5th starter? I need to go.
There is also something called a “progress report” that is handed out in the moment by teachers. They give you a grade even though the semester is not over, and then say “hey, if you don’t pick this up, this could be a bad semester.” if you’re not doing so hot.
I don’t think Mike is being as black and white as you guys think. Maybe it’s the term offseason grade, that implies that it is over and immovable. I have no problem with what he is saying. We upgraded our weak point, but the weak point is often the cheapest and easiest point of any place to upgrade, and we addressed it by throwing a lot of money at KRod and setting the market when Fuentes signed for much less and Cruz would probably have not cost much either, in comparison to the player cost for Putz. We missed on Lowe, aren’t pursuing Manny, and are only paying due dilligence to Abreu, Dunn, and Sheets, instead preferring to just keep the core back. I don’t think it was anything better than an adquate offseason. TO THIS POINT.
Of course there is, but this grade is more like “hey you got an A on your first two tests, but if you drop out of this class right now and throw things at me for the rest of the semester you are going to end up with a C.
Cruz wouldn’t cost a first rounder, our first rounder goes to the angels. and a second rounder isn’t more valuable, at least I don’t think it is, then the pieces we moved for Putz anyway.
Gina, I believe that they would get our 2nd rounder this year or the option of taking our 1st rounder next year no?
And I would much rather have Putz than I would Cruz. I like Cruz and he was one of the players I would have liked to bring in, but Putz is in a different category. And heck, if he goes out and puts out a 2005-2007 type season we can get a lot more back for him from a team in need of a closer than Cruz will ever be worth.
They would get the 2nd rounder. There is no carryover of picks. Otherwise, the Yanks wouldn’t have a 1st rounder for the next couple of years.
Cruz had some numbers that did not look so good on further review.
As for the pieces moved for Putz, I’m still trying to understand the issue. The goal of a deal is to get the best player in the deal. Here is who Omar gave up:
Endy Chavez - great fielder, poor hitter.
Aaron Heilman - I’m not going to cause nightmares by reposting his stats.
Joe Smith - a nice ROOGY. No more, no less.
Mike Carp - had stagnated in the minors. Not a good fit at first due to lack of power.
Maikel Cleto - 20 in May. Far away from helping the Mets.
Ezequiel Carrera - 22 in June. 737 OPS for PSL last year. Down the depth chart.
In return, the Mets got Putz, who was a dominant closer in 2007, and despite minor injuries last year, had an excellent 2nd half. A pitcher who misses bats, which is something this bullpen has sorely lacked the past couple of years.
Add Green, who can replace Smith, and even face lefties, and Jeremy Reed, who can be a 5th outfielder.
Keith Law wrote:
Well this offseason grade stuff is already stretching proper metaphorical boundaries but in this case I think what once looked like an A is a B+ or so. We fixed the pen at a pretty big cost in retrospect now that the offseason has shown that the things we paid for that at once looked like an underpay now look like an overpay in the market.
To try to keep the bad metaphor going, the Mets impressed their teacher with their first two tests, and since then have been slacking off on homework and blowing bubble gum.
So did Putz.
Chavez, who Jeremy Reed can replace in name value alone since he’s not as good in the outfield? Heilman, who was dealt for a solid AAA starter prospect and a good backup middle infielder, which would have kept us from wasting millions on Tim Redding and Alex Cora?
Smith, who is a solid ROOGY who was still years from making any money?
Carp, who could grow into a solid first baseman in the Sean Casey mold?
Cleto, who has amazing stuff?
I can play the same game, Ed. Here’s the point: I don’t see a huge difference between Putz and Cruz. Putz is better, absolutely. Cruz is very good also, and would have cost not anywhere near as much of this depth to sign away.
Yeah Garcia good probably really good The snag is he is a NON-Roster invitie which means if he dosen’t crack the starting rotation he’s gone YIKES! I hope the Mets give him a fare shot at the Starting Row. if not I will be very dissaponted.
As for Sulliven I have a felling about him in my game I signed him and he took off .310 and 20 HR in my video game I don’t know of that shows potential or what but at least he’s good in virtual reality