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January 14, 2009
Grading the NL East
It has been a turbulent off season for National League East General Managers as the Nationals have come under fire for getting nothing done, the Marlins held yet another salary purge, the Phillies looked foolish for the terms given to Raul Ibanez. and the Braves signed two starting pitchers after finishing a close second in the pursuit of their original targets, The Mets have been active as well, only their moves have been met with positive reaction as they successfully plugged bullpen holes and added a decent veteran starter. To gage what each organization may do next, it’s important to understand the context of what has already occurred. Will the Nationals be aggressive out of desperation in the face of rejection? Will the already strapped for cash Phillies stand pat after a questionable signing? Do the Marlins know there is free agency beyond minor league free agents? Are the Braves done after filling out their starting rotation (they can certainly use a bat)? Can the Mets sign one more player to put them over the top? In analyzing each team’s off season, it’s important to analyze what has and has not already happened. Atlanta Braves: Frank Wren’s disastrous off season included the departure of an icon in John Smoltz and rejections from both Rafael Furcal after he was supposedly “in the bag” and A.J. Burnett who chose the Yankees. Javier Vazquez was a positive addition, but as a number one? Jake Peavy rumors also never materialized and their big foray into free agency was the signing of Kenshin Kawakami who is past his prime, but could contribute as a third or fourth starter. The Braves had money to burn and spent that capital on Derek Lowe’s four year, 60 million-dollar deal. The Mets underplayed their hand badly with Derek Lowe when the Braves had the money to simply write him a blank check. The trade market is also an option for the Braves as Martin Prado looks like a solid regular making Kelly Johnson expendable. With so much youth in both the outfield and starting rotation, the Braves need to get something done on offense Grade - C Washington Nationals: After swinging and missing with Mark Teixeira, Jim Bowden and the Nationals at a minimum deserve credit for taking a shot, but came up short nonetheless. Turning Emilio Bonifacio for both Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham was a coup and yet again exposed the Marlins for the blight they are. Swapping out Tim Redding for Daniel Cabrera was simply swapping out spare parts. A healthy Ryan Zimmerman and the continued growth of both Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge should be good for a few more wins, but this team as it stands should be good for 70-74 wins at best. With building pressure from the fan base to add more talent to the fold, Adam Dunn would be an option. However, with a log jam at both outfield and first base, the move may not be particularly wise. Grade - C+ Philadelphia Phillies: New GM Ruben Amaro has certainly proved to be a much better General Manager than he was a player, but this off season certainly will not go down as one of his best. Pat Burrell was sent packing in favor of an older, more expensive, but equally talented Raul Ibanez. Ronnie Paulino is a nice placeholder behind the plate until Lou Marson is ready. Jamie Moyer was also re-signed for two more years as the Phillies continue to count on the ageless wonder. Additionally, adding Chan Ho Park was to bolster a bullpen which took a hit with J.C. Romero being suspended fifty games for the use of a banned substance. With the Phillies rumored to either cut or maintain payroll, do the Phillies have any wiggle room as far as additional signings are concerned? Grade - C- Florida Marlins: Another off season, another Marlins salary dump as solid major league veterans yet again give way to unproven minimum salary free agent and prospects. This year’s dump included the aforementioned Josh Willingham and Scott Olsen, along with Kevin Gregg who was dealt to the Cubs and Mike Jacobs who is now a Royal. Additions include Scott Proctor, Emilio Bonifacio, and Leo Nunez. A an 84 win team in 2008, the Marlins will need everything to work out perfectly to match their 2008 win total. With a new stadium on the way, it’s depressing to see such a lack of investment in the franchise. I understand Larry Beinfest’s hands are often tied and he does what he can, but I’m not sure how he sleep at night. Grade - D+ New York Mets: Signing Francisco Rodriguez and dealing for J.J. Putz were positive additions, but Tim Redding is a very blah kind of pitcher and the roster still has holes to fill. Derek Lowe slipping through their fingers because Omar Minaya made an attempt to low ball Scott Boras hurts their off season grade after a promising start. The teams still needs to add one more bat and arm to ensure their being the cream of the National League East Crop. Grade - C+ After a hot start to the off season, the Mets pace as slowed to a crawl. Derek Lowe was the best fit for a rotation in need of a durable innings eater. Lowe’s becoming a Brave could signal the return of Oliver Perez to the Mets. Should the Mets head into 2009 with a 4-5 combination of Tim Redding and Jonathan Niese, the off season will have been a partial failure even with the addition of a dominant closer and set up man. 41 Responses to “Grading the NL East”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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So the Mets, who got TWO of the best closers in the game and radically improved their most glaring weakness, get the same grade as the Nats who haven´t done anything yet? And the Braves, who added a #1 and #2 starter while letting go a 42 year old veteran coming off injury get a worse grade?
Nice summary of the offseason, but I don´t get the grades.
Agreed, Dave. I also think that since the off-season has been crawling for every team in
baseball, it’s just much too early to be handing out grades (ALOT of guys still unsigned).
While the Braves improved, I still don’t think they’ll contend. But I do give them credit
for rebounding and adding those two pitchers (although Lowe isn’t a 1 and Vasquez isn’t a 2).
Braves off-season: C+
As for the Mets, the bullpen was virtually torn down and 2 of the best in the game brought in.
Yes, we still need another arm and an additional bat. But so far, so good.
Mets (for the new bullpen alone): B+
Happy birthday to Mike Pelfrey. Here’s hoping that his 25th year on earth is a great one.
The Mets plugged bullpen holes which was a positive. However, assuming Putz who had an injury plagued 2008 which included a 1.60 WHIP will simply snap back to pre-injury levels is not something I’m willing to do yet. They then low balled Lowe who could have been signed 3 weeks ago and are stuck with a 4th starter who at best will be a win over replacement. They screwed the pooch with Lowe which will force them to overpay for another starter (Perez) or go into the season with a pretty average starting five.
Additionally, they still have not added a bat. This off season started with a sizzle, but has seriously stalled.
The Nats earn the same grade because they were looking to do different things. They fleeced the Mets for Milledge last off season and dealt for Elijah Dukes on the cheap. This off season, they added a .270/.360/.835 outfielder and a 25-year old starting pitcher who is responsible for more career wins above replacement (4.0) as the almost 31-year old Redding (3.9). Their only loss was Redding who they non-tendered and replaced with a younger Daniel Cabrera who will be 28 in May and has been worth 11.6 wins above replacement over his career. They didn’t make a sexy move, but they are a better team now than they were last season.
Each team has different needs and the Nationals filled their needs just as well as the Mets have.
Not to mention removing the stink of Heilman and Shoeneweis.
I do agree that there is work to be done. I hope that Mike regrades once the offseason is completed.
Talk about glass freakin’ half empty. Sure, Putz had a 1.60 whip last year but he was dynamite in the second half after getting over his relatively minor injury. There are no indications there are any lingering effects from I’ve heard and that he’s a good bet to go this season.
So, basically, you’re saying the Mets are a failure this offseason (okay, failure is too harsh. You’re saying they’re average) because they haven’t signed Lowe. Come on. He’s one pitcher. And if the Mets turn around and sign Sheets and Ollie?
It’s been a slow offseason and most of the key position players remain unsigned. To penalize the Mets specifically for this also seems glass half empty.
Finally, are you serious with the Nationals? I live in DC so I regularly follow them. They get points for ATTEMPTING to go after Tex even though no one in their right mind thought he would go there? They get points for replacing Tim Redding? And why would you think they need another outfielder when they are already shuffling four starters out there? No, but yeah, signing Corey Patterson certainly trumps K-Rod.
Also, explaining the Nats have had a good offseason by mentioning two moves they made the season before: no points.
You guys are like parents who can’t stand that anyone criticizes their child. You’re much too sensitive. The mets currently have a no#1 pitcher and some 3’s and a 5. Yes, they added great bullpen arms, but they need pitchers to get them to the bullpen. Omar miscalculated miserably on Lowe’s market, assuming that if he lowballed him, Boras would come back for another offer. Surprise! Didn’t happen.
What happens next will be interesting. But even if they get Ollie….is he a #2?
No #1 pitcher? we have the best pitcher in the game but we don’t have a #1 pitcher? I think I would disagree with that assement.
I would have liked to have Lowe, but to consider him this “Ace” for 60 mil is insane, he is a career .500 4 ERA pitcher who is 36 years old. Braves can have him for 60 mil IMO. I think Omar played his cards exactly right for that, so long as he doesn’t end up paying a big deal to Perez instead.
I think these grades are completely silly. The Mets significantly upgraded their biggest weakness to probably the best pen in the NL (especially with the Cubbies losing Wood), and they even get to get Wagner back at the end of the year now! Yes, we have a bit of a hole in the rotation right now, but there are lots of options to replace that which will leave us better off than our rotation was last year.
Nationals fans should be ecstatic that Teixeira went elsewhere. I probably couldn’t think of a worse fit for one of the peak players in the game.
James…it says we have a no#1 pitcher. Read again. Sorry if you were confused.
You interpreted no#1 as no #1.
I will DEFINITELY update grades once things are completed. The piece is meant to be a predictor of what will happen next and had to be quickly updated yesterday once Lowe signed.
Originally, I had included the Mets better be careful with Lowe because the Braves could write him a blank check when I started writing the piece Monday afternoon only to become REALLY flustered when I learned yesterday afternoon that the Braves did just that.
The Braves bad grade takes into consideration their losing out on BOTH Furcal and Burnett who were their two prime targets AND the Peavy negotiations which turned into a bit of a debacle.
Lunkwill, it’s a little above average. Tbe Mets gave up some value to bring in Putz who is no guarantee. The “rebound” you are talking about with Putz is an 8 inning sample in September where he posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Should Putz be fine, yes, but the three current 2009 projections on Putz have him with an ERA of between 2.95 and 3.44. This would be an improvement, but not the dominating 8th inning pitcher fans are expecting him to be.
The C+ comes from a hole in the rotation and their not adding a bat. When you surround their four big bats with below average players at their position, it’s a real boom or bust lineup. Their lineup simply lacks the consistency to ensure another September collapse does not happen.
The rotation is a #1, 2 #3’s, a #5, and a pitcher who needs more AAA seasoning.
You can actually take a look at my free agent grades Here and my analysis of the Putz deal Here. As you will see, I’m a supporter of both the K-Rod deal and Putz trade. However, the C+ means there’s still work to be done.
I’m impressed with the Braves offseason. Lowe was one of the top 10 pitchers in the league the last 2 seasons (doesn’t that make him an “ace” in a 16 team league?), Vazquez is severely underrated and Kawakami seems like a decent #3/#4 type. Their rotation is the best in the NL East: Lowe-Jurrjens-Vazquez-Kawakami-Campillo/Hudson.
If they add a bat like Nady, Dunn or Swisher, I’d say the 2009 Braves are a dangerous team.
#2, #3, #3, #5, #5. That’s not a great rotation.
Mike, I’m talking about his entire second half when he allowed a .729 OPS again. Even his first half was a bit overinflated as his BABIP was .377.
I really don’t see anything wrong with that. Middle reliever ERAs tend to be mirages anyway. That plus a high strikeout rate = elite setup man to me.
As you’ve already stated, it’s a bit early to make judgments on that when the top position players are still out there and we’re one pitcher away from having our rotation set again.
I am on the fence on Lowe, I am definitely disappointed we did not get him, but I am also glad I am not paying Lowe 15 mil to be a 39 and 40 year old pitcher. I don’t see Lowe as one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball the last couple years, I think he was a low level ace and is now a solid #2 that I do not think has 4 years left in the tank at solid #2 level. He honestly looks a lot like Glavine when we signed him. I don’t think the Braves will “regret” that deal as he will probably give them a couple solid years followed by a couple okay years, but I think money can be spent more wisely.
I honestly think Omar should be commended for his handling, he is almsot certainly in a situation where he HAS to win this year to keep his job, despite that he STILL didn’t overpay in years and $$ for a player that would probably have made him a much safer bet to keep that job for next year.
Everyone seems caught up in declaring pitchers a #1, #2, #3, etc.
What is your criteria? Here’s mine: If a pitcher is one of the 16 best in the NL, he’s a #1 because there are 16 teams. If he is ranked 17-32 he’s a #2. And so on.
Tell me how Lowe is not a #1 please. His FIP was top 5 last season and top 13 in 2007. Also, Vazquez was 13th in FIP in 2007 and 12th in 2008 in the AL. I’ll call him a #2 and borderline #1.
Perception vs. reality - Lowe does not seem like a Santana, Sabathia, Halladay type but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a “#1″.
There’s a bit of unknown quality to the Braves rotation for this season because of how drastically they changed it from the previous few seasons.
Whether they pulled what the Yankees did with Torre with regards to Smoltz is unknown but it seems pretty clear that they’re finally moving on from the “Big 3″ era, probably at least half a decade too late.
Overall there are still a lot of question marks to that team. Will Kotchman prove to be an able 1B? Now that Kelly Johnson’s personal BP pitcher, Aaaron Heilman, is no longer on the Mets will people still see him for being an occasional threat or being a replacement level player? Escobar has the tools, but will he be better than the 4th best SS in the division? Over/under for games played by Chipper this year? Will the Braves LF platoon prove to be more successful than the Mets or Raul Ibanez? Worst CF in the division (Beltran/Victorino/Maybin/Milledge)? How far of a step backwards to Frenchy take last year?
This is ignoring a bullpen that has had plenty of problems staying healthy the past 3 seasons. Sure every team has their question marks, but unless the Braves rotation morphs into the heyday of Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, I don’t see them being a serious threat past the beginning of the summer.
In addition to signing Perez or Wolf, the Mets must now sign Manny. The Mets NEED Manny because — in addition to the obvious upgrade to the Mets offense — he is the only player out there that will bring true excitement to Citi Field this year.
Without Manny, the Mets are just another fairly good team without a significant draw. That dog won’t hunt with ticket prices and expectations through the roof.
what’s with the apparent bitterness over Milledge? he posted a .731 OPS last year with pathetic defense to boot. in terms of traded mets prospects, he’s more terrence long than scott kazmir. the Nats would be better off benching him and using his services as a lil’ wayne impersonator.
Agreed on the Millidge-ness. He was pretty swell for the Nats for parts of last year…but Ryan Church was outperforming him and the Mets got exactly what they wanted out of Brian Schneider. Church could easily have a better offensive year than Milldege in 2009 (and beyond), and Church plays a much more sound outfield.
If Church had come up through the Mets with NY media no one would be making boo - hoo lastings comments.
What happened to Jose Reyes as an exciting draw? Or David Wright? Or Johan Santana? Or winning games…
If the Mets win games they will be fine. They could probably finish last and still have a strong gate due to the new stadium.
Sign Manny if he is the right fit for the team, not because you think the Mets need a draw (which they don’t).
I enjoyed your assesment of the Braves favoritebaseballsquadron- they have themselves in a very needy area but there are still big question marks there.
The Phillies still have to be the team to beat, I don’t like their moves but they have a strong lineup and the same pitching - which could improve if through a more consistent Myers and a full year of Blanton.
It is natural for Mets fans to want to fix every part of the team, but we have to admit we have a good shot heading into this summer. It is worth pointing out that the Mets don’t play in the AL East and do not need an all-star at every position to compete.
WE ARRRGHHHHHEE DDDDDDDDDDDDDDOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMEDEDEDEDEDEDEDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!
Because #1 pitchers win games, they win games they are not supposed to win, they win games where there offense doesn’t show up, they win games because their offense blows out the opponent and they take it easy to eat up innings for the pen. Lowe has had some very good seasons, but with a good team behind him in LA he was a 500 pitcher for the last three years. Sorry, FIP is not how I define a pitcher.
Please, we don’t need star power, we need a good team. We have Santana-Reyes-Wright and players like Niese, Pelfrey, Murphy for the home town fans to root for. What we need to do is win the division and make a run in the playoffs. Not a splash. Manny makes sense for the offense, but not for “juice”.
To me the big ??? about the Phillies is their pen. It was a world beating best pen in baseball last year that carried them in the post season and the last few months of the year. However, it sure didn’t look that way going into the season last year.
If the Phillies have the same pen this year in terms of performance, they are going to look pretty unbeatable. If they come back to earth they will be a rough team, if tehy fall on their face they could collapse.
I’d be expecting a bit of reversion to the mean from the Phillies pen. Although even if you hold their BP performance constant, if the Mets BP can not blow nearly 30 saves like last year you’ll make at least the difference in the division and then some.
The Phillies also did well to escape an injury bug with the exception of Rollins. Not to wish injuries to befall a team completely, but they’re already going to be without Utley for a few weeks to start the season. They’re not an extremely old team (Jamie Moyer nonwithstanding)but they’re not an extremely young team either. Hamels blew past his season high in IP last year (262.1 vs. 189 in 07) and while he’s young and not a pure power pitcher, he battled injuries early in his career and it’s widely known he can only go on full rest.
GUS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry Shea, maybe I´m being dense, but I still don´t get it either. But I know you know that Santana is an ace, and I love you anyway.
Milledge’s 2008 was his age 23 season. Church’s was his age 29.
You don’t deal 23-year olds with 20-30 potential for vets who aren’t very good in their prime. It’s a very shortsighted view of things the best handled organizations are moving away from.
no=number
#=number
no#1=number number 1
I like Lastings Milledge. He obviously has great skills. He is also younger than Church. He was more highly regarded coming through the minors by scouts and police forces.
When the Mets traded him I thought they could have gotten more, they certainly could have received more if they had traded him a year earlier.
Did the Mets get fleeced though? It is reasonable to sumise that they couldn’t get much more for him than they did, else Omar would have made a different move. If the Mets had kept him for a bench player he would have lost even more value. The Nationals are looking to move him out of centerfield and maybe out of their lineup even. If he has 10 more years like last year then the Mets didn’t get fleeced.
Of course you can make a great argument that Minaya’s mistake was in not trading him a year earlier.
So how many “#1″ pitchers are there in baseball? 4? 5? If you want to call these type of pitchers an “ace” or some other highly subjective word, then fine. But don’t call them #1’s.
There are 30 teams in major league baseball. Therefore, the 30 best pitchers are all “#1″ pitchers. Pitchers 31-60 are #2’s, and so on.
You know #1 means ace. When the Braves had Maddux and Glavine was their number 2 (he he he he he, number 2) he was still better than most teams number 1 starter. No need to debate semantics
James, there’s a definite difference between #1 and ace. Every team has a number one. This does not mean they are an ace. When people who rank prospects and pitchers talk in terms of #1, #2, etc., it’s more about the profile than where they throw in the rotation on any given team.
Exactly! Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz were all #1-CALIBER pitchers (because they were among the 30 best pitchers in baseball). Therefore, I would call them all #1’s if describing them.
Mike,
Every team has a de-facto #1 - that is obvious. What I’m saying is that if you are one of the top 30 pitchers in the league, then you are a #1 caliber pitcher. Because, by definition, you could be the best pitcher on atleast 1 team. It’s silly to say that there are only 9-10 “#1 pitchers” in baseball. If you want to say there are only 9-10 “aces”, then fine. That’s a whole different discussion.
Willingham, Olsen, and Jacobs are mediocre players and the Marlins lose nothing by getting rid of them, particularly when they can temporarily put Cantu at 1st, Uggla at 3rd, and Emilio at 2nd. It is the Nationals who did something inscrutable by trading a player with at least some potential for 2 assured mediocrities when they won’t contend for at least 2 years.
MightyJoe…
A healthy Willingham will produce more offensively than Church or whatever the Mets put in left field in 2009.
Olsen is looking like a 200 inning workhorse in his mid 20’s.
Jacobs isn’t great, but 30+ HR, 90+ RBI and a 800+ OPS has some value. You are right in that the Marlins will likely not miss him.
Jacobs is seductive, but his terrible defense, terrible OBP, and horrid platoon splits make him only slightly better than a replacement player. Average in a very good year.
If Kawakami bombs the transition and Larry goes down, the Braves are sunk. If neither of those happens, they could be the best team in the division, pending Frenchy and how their bullpen shapes up.
The Phillies’ pitching will not do what it did last year, but the offense might be better (unless Utley’s a slow healer).
We can’t count on Beltran/Reyes/Wright/Delgado missing a combined total of 9 games again.