Unanticipated competition from the Braves for Derek Lowe coupled with the Mets lack of interest in any slugger, have led to some familiar refrains around Metdom.  i.e. “Freddy Coupons is back!”  “If only the Mets would act like a BIG market club!”

But a look at Mets payroll history since 2000 shows big hikes have coincided with disastrous results 3 out of 4 times.

2001 – Payroll increased nearly $15m (nearly 19%) - a huge bump from 2000 but the Mets lost 12 more games than the year before.

2002 – A modest $1m increase (1%) yields 7 fewer wins as the club finished 75-86.

2003 – Hoping to reverse the two year slide, payroll is boosted $23m (24%) going from $95m to $117m.  The result?  Nine fewer wins in a disastrous 66-95 campaign.

2004 – Payroll is slashed nearly $21m to $97m but wins increase by five for a still ugly 71-91 squad.  But the first pay CUT led to the first win increase of the century.

2005 – A modest $4.6m hike pushes payroll to $101m and yields 12 more wins to get the club back over .500 at 83-79.

2006 – Salary is $200k less than 2005 and the club rolls to 97 wins - a 14 win jump from 2005.

2007 – Ownership bumps payroll by $14m to $115m and agonizes over the first “September collapse” and 9 fewer wins than 2006.

2008 – A huge 20% bump ($22.5m) in payroll nets a mere one extra win - 3 behind the eventual World Champs.

It’s not news that dollars don’t guarantee wins, health and talent matter most, but the “Freddy Coupons” cries suggest that many fans overvalue payroll.

Often the Mets spend big bucks but not enough to eat $30m a year in “bad contracts” like the Yanks can.  That just isn’t likely to change.  That means decisions like whether or not to give Lowe a 4th year have huge ramifications.

The last three high-dollar pitchers the club lured to NY with an “extra year” were Show, Pedro & Wagner.  Pedro’s lack of production hurt the 2007 & 2008 clubs badly and Wagner’s current injury arguably cost the 2008 team a playoff birth and is preventing them from upgrading the ‘09 outfield.

I want Lowe but a 4th year is a tough, tough call.  If he’s collecting $15m  from the DL in 2012 – it will probably be a very long season.

It’s not causal that in the 4 recent seasons in which the Mets hiked payroll by 14% or more they promptly went -12, -9, -9, +1 in the win department while the season they cut 17% they won 5 more – but it does suggest it will take alot more than a bigger check to deliver a championship.