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January 9, 2009
Redding vs Pedro
The Mets are rumored to have a made a 1-year, $2.5 million offer to Tim Redding to be their 5th starter. At the same time, Pedro has stated he’d like to pitch for the Mets, and hasn’t included any bluster to imply he’ll demand to be paid like the pitcher he used to be. I’m guessing it’d take more than $2.5 mil, but not too much more. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Pedro accepted a low base + incentives, as he is conscious of “not having done what he set out to do in New York”. Now, I doubt Omar will sign these two to compete with each other; I don’t think losing and being sent to the minors would be acceptable to either one. So, we have to pick between them. Tim Redding Tim Redding finished the 2003 season with a lot of promise. He’d fashioned a 3.68 ERA in a bandbox in his first full season, and, despite his low K rate, scouts raved about his arsenal. 93mph fastball with movement. Two above-average breaking pitches. Well, 5 years later, Redding has a career BB/9 of 3.7 and K/9 of 6.1. His ERA+ is a horrendous 88. He’s made more than 17 starts in only one of the last 4 years. His homer rate has been getting worse, and was an awful 1.3 last year, to go with an unimpressive 40% groundball rate. He turns 31 in February and has logged 700 innings in the majors. While he may still be learning how to pitch, I wouldn’t count on it, and his stuff bears no resemblance to the 2003 model. He works in the upper 80s now. To sum up, this guy sucks worse than Jason Marquis (although at $2.5 mil he would be a better value). Pedro Martinez As for Pedro, well, if you follow his recent ERA trends, he should be ready to post an ERA around 7.00 in 2009. On the other hand, his K rate in 2008 was a solid 7.2, and he was incredibly unlucky on balls in play (.327 BABIP) and in the air (17.4% for HRs — Maine was 2nd worst at 12.2%). So, I’d say the worst-case scenario we could reasonably expect we be a level of performance equal to, say… Tim Redding. The biggest argument for Redding over Pedro is that Redding made 33 starts last year while Pedro made 20. Despite all his rehab work, it seems that Pedro is fairly fragile, and needs to be handled with kid gloves. In terms of effectiveness, though, I’d say the 37-year-old has way more upside. Plus, he can handle New York, gives a great interview, and is fun to watch. You know who I’m voting for here. High hopes? The other pitcher I’m keeping an eye on in this discussion is Mark Mulder. Post-surgery, Mulder was able to take a mound and throw a ball, but he couldn’t get it to behave like it used to. Sound familiar? So, this winter he’s been working on a flexibility program designed to enable him to throw from his old arm slot. I really really hope someone gets Pedro to do the same. His stuff isn’t any worse than it was in 2006; he just can’t control it anymore. If he could? Well, here’s how he started out 2006 before his injuries really started affecting his performance: 98.2 IP, 67 H, 26 BB, 110 K, 3.01 ERA That’s 15 starts of “top 5 in baseball” performance from a guy throwing 89mph. I haven’t given up hope that there might be more of those to come. 12 Responses to “Redding vs Pedro”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Why no mention of Pedro’s 3.63 BB/9 and 1.57 HR/9 in 2008? Also, Fangraphs has Pedro’s HR/FB% at 15.6% (which is still unlucky). His LD% was an awful 23.7%, so his BABIP may not have been as unlucky as it looks.
Pedro supposedly turned down a 1-year, $7 million deal from some other team. While I’m sure he’d accept less than that from the Mets, I’d rather have Redding at $2.25 million than Pedro for $5 million.
CHONE projections for Redding and Pedro:
Redding: 164 IP, 4.94 ERA
Martinez: 76 IP, 4.97 ERA
I love Pedro, his personality, his interviews, all that stuff - but it’s time to move on.
Honestly, besides Marquis, there really wasn’t a fifth guy who put up Redding’s stats last yr.
Redding’s HR/FB rate was average, so I thought his HR/9 rate was meaningful, unlike Pedro’s. I got Pedro’s 17.4% from Hardball Times — I guess they and FanGraphs disagree.
Fanning 7.2 guys per 9 and having a 23.7% LD rate is a pure fluke. Pedro was either lucky on the Ks or unlucky on the LDs. I’ll guess the former, but who knows…
I’d happily pay another $2.75 mil for a tiny chance at Good Pedro rather than the certainty of Avg Redding. That’s, what, 2% of our payroll? I agree that that 92-inning projected difference is scary, though.
I don’t believe that for one second!
Omar can sign both. I don’t think for one minute it’s an either/or situation. Pedro can stay in Florida until June when it warms up here.
Redding had his pen blow 7 games for him last year, tying him for Santana for the most in the majors. If he had won those games, he would have won 17 for the Nats! That´s pretty good. Plus, he pitched a bunch of times against the Phillies last year to the tune of a 3.xx ERA– nothing to sneeze at.
He should be comforable in NYC, as he´ll be reunited with former teammates Santana, Beltran, Church, and Schneider, and former coach Razor Shines (Mets new 3B coach).
I´m OK with this signing.
yeah, I’m totally okay with this signing as well
plus, Redding has pretty good career numbers vs the Phils
Also….don’t be shocked if the Mets sign Pedro. After much thought, it might not be a bad idea. Pedro has something to prove. If you give the 5th spot to Pedro, Redding can be the long man. Should Pedro get hurt, Redding can step in.
I think all further moves hinge on who we sign next: Lowe or Ollie.
I dunno, man. If you’re Pedro, and some other team offers you a guaranteed rotation spot, and the Mets only offer you a chance at one, you have to go with the other team, right?
I could see Redding winding up as a long man due to circumstance, but I’d be very surprised if that’s Omar’s plan right now.
all good points, argon….
but at the same time, it does seem that Omar hasn’t completely shut the door on Pedro just yet
I think it is unlikely the Mets resign Pedro now, if we were going to sign him it would have been as a 5th starter, so unless we just signed a long man in Redding, I think our chances of Pedro are pretty slim.
And the problem of the difference between Pedro and Redding is that if a bad version of Redding shows up he can be rotated out just as easily as he has been rotated into the rotation. If a bad version of Pedro shows up next year he has a spot in the rotation as long as he can throw the ball. I still liked him as a 5th starter, but Redding is probably a better fit.
I bet if Pedro was on the Mets and showing he couldn’t hack it in the rotation, the team would release him so he could try to sign elsewhere. I can’t imagine anyone letting him just stay there and blow every game, or making some drama out of it.
You’re certainly right in that Pedro is not a long relief candidate. But I don’t think that’s a huge concern — long man wouldn’t be a terrible role for Niese or Parnell.
I am bummed about Pedro likely signing with the Marlins. I really get psyched to beat that team, and it’d be a weird, conflicted feeling playing against them with Pedro on the mound for them. Blah.
Redding at this stage is much better than Pedro and Freddy Garcia is even better