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December 31, 2008
Prospects or Pretenders?
As with most organizations, the Mets have a number of borderline prospects whose statistical lines are better than their talent would indicate. I’ve been questioned about players such as Josh Thole who many Mets fans felt should be included in my top 20 prospect list after Thole posted a .300/.382/.427 line as a 22-year old in high A. However, Thole and a number of others who are constantly discussed as Mets trade bait are not true prospects, but players who have no real value on the open market. In this piece, I’ll examine a handful of these players in terms of where they miss the mark. This is not to say they may not eventually don a Mets uniform. However, the likelihood of any of these players becoming more than role players is slim. Shawn Bowman, 3B Bowman is a former 12th round pick whose career started with a bang but has crashed and burned over the past three seasons. After averaging 17.5 HR per season as a nineteen- and twenty-year-old, his eight home runs over the past three seasons due to fracturing the same vertebrate in his back not once but twice leaves his current value at zero, although some Mets fans seem to think his power could recover. In 200 2008 at bats, he had only four homers while posting a 58/6 strikeout to walk ratio in High-A and Double-A. His advanced age, injury history, and lack of production have left him looking like an organizational player at best. Even when Bowman was at his best, he still had major holes in his offensive approach. His OPS’ stayed in the low- to mid-.700’s, with far too many strikeouts to be truly relevant. Don’t be fooled by his winter league numbers; Bowman was fresh in winter leagues notorious for players who are tired and simply going through the motions. Dylan Owen, SP In tying for the Mets’ minor league lead in wins, the 22-year old Owen earned a number of followers as one of the Mets 2007 big three late round college pitching picks. Along with Dillon Gee, and Mike Antonini, the Mets added pitching depth to a depleted organization post the Johan Santana deal. While Owen’s numbers compare favorably to the two aforementioned players, his future prospects likely do not. For starters, Owen is pretty small, as his listed height of 5′11″ seems closer to 5′10″ from what I have read. Pedro Martinez aside, righties under six feet rarely have major league success. Of course a fan will throw out Tim Lincecum as another successful pitcher under six feet, but he’s a true freak of nature. Owen is not. With good control and average stuff, pitchers similar to Owen often struggle against advanced competition. His 5.51 ERA in a short, but possibly telling, Double-A stint points to 2009 being a true test of Owen’s mettle. Remember, Dillon Gee dominated in his limited time in Double-A and Antonini will receive numerous opportunities because he’s a lefty. If Antonini and Gee are A’s, Owen is a B or B- leaving him with a very iffy future. Josh Thole, C At 22, Thole is an interesting player. A left-handed hitting catcher with on-base ability has some value for sure. I also compliment him for turning himself from a first baseman with no pop in the Sally League to a catcher with potential gap power and a significantly brighter future. In 2007, I think I even watched Thole play a couple of games in Savannah. I don’t remember much about him, but I remember shaking my head at a first baseman with no home runs as part of one of the five worst minor league teams in baseball that season. In my mind, it was only fitting. However, Thole has made himself into arguably the organization’s top minor league catcher. Does this mean he’s a prospect worth of consideration for the Mets top 20 prospects? Absolutely not! He catches, but not particularly well. He finds ways to reach base, but is little more than a singles hitter. He batted .300 in A+, but he was 22, which is no spring chicken for the league. Each positive is countered by just as strong of a negative leaving him a pretty blah kind of guy. With that said, I can certainly see a scenario in 2012 or 2013 where a Francisco Pena/Josh Thole tandem is putting up 80% of the offense the Mets are currently receiving from their current Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro tandem. While those totals are nothing to write home about, having the catching position covered at 10% of what they currently shell out for a few years looks great compared to eight million or so currently invested in the position. if Eric Simon, President of the Josh Thole fanclub, held a gun to my head, I’d put Thole’s top-end projection at a left handed hitting Mike Redmond. While not exactly a world-beater, the Mets, and Thole would be pretty ecstatic with this outcome. Not only has Redmond logged almost a decade of major league service with no end in sight, he has a .292/.348/.365 career line and will earn over ten million dollars before all is said and done. For a former first baseman with a .311 slugging percentage in 2007, this outcome would be pretty remarkable. 8 Responses to “Prospects or Pretenders?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Yeeeeeeeah, I dunno.
A 22-year-old’s performance in single-A against 17 and 18-year-olds, man, I ain’t putting a whole lotta money on that.
Not much more than I’d put on 29-year-old in AAA, stat-accumulating against inferior players on a combination of the learned ability to feast against incomplete opposition and a half-a-thimble’s worth of talent.
A little more but not much.
lfm, please check your facts. Single-A is not loaded with 17-18 year olds. The Savannah roster currently has just one player under 20 (Francisco Pena, born in 1989). The Savannah position players are pretty evenly spread from 20-24 years old, while the pitchers are concentrated at 21/22 years old.
Caveat- I didn´t look at the league as a whole, just the Savannah roster; maybe we are significantly older than the average, but I doubt it.
First, 22 is by no means “old” for High-A ball — that is where most college draftees start — I bet the average age in the league is right around 22.
Second, I would be curious where Thole’s .809 OPS ranked against the FSL average — remember, that is a notorious pitcher’s league, so I bet his OPS was above average for the league.
Third, you can say he “doesn’t catch well” but you also acknowledged that he just transitioned to catcher. I haven’t read a scouting report of any type on his defense — I would be curious to see a more detailed discussion for how he is as a receiver.
Fourth, the most intriguing thing about Thole is plate discipline–one of the harder things to teach young players. IIRC he walked about as much as he struck out. If his plate discipline continues to develop, his power will improve because he will get better at pitch recognition and learn what pitches to drive
If Thole can continue to just slightly outpace his league’s average offensive production, I think he is a legitimate prospect — if he can break into the big leagues and post an OPS+ of 100-105, he will stick.
All that being said, I am not sold on him until he has a second good season. This was a breakout year for Thole, and while his AFL numbers were also good, I am not sold on him until he does it again in AA.
Oh…..I totally concurr on Bowman and mostly agree on Owen. At his best, I think Owen would make it as a middle reliever.
Thole was only 21 in St. Lucie this year, which is perfectly age-appropriate. He’s just turned 22 now, and will be 22 all year at AA in 09.
For what it’s worth concerning Thole: as others have said, he was 21 in 2008, not 22. He was certainly not old for the level, either. The average age in 2007 (not sure about ‘08, but these things are very stable) was 22.9 for hitters, 23.1 for pitchers.
And catchers, in particular, are typically older than other position players. Thole actually was one of the younger regular catchers in the league.
That said, a lot of what Mike says still makes sense. Thole will probably never be a power hitter, and while he is new to the position, it’s likely he’ll never be a good defender — the vast majority of late converts don’t.
As for the Mike Redmond comparison, that sounds pretty good to me, and Met fans should be pretty happy with that as Mike says. Redmond has probably been good enough to start for a few teams. After all, Redmond has pretty much the exact same skillset as Don Slaught (same size, no defense, little power, can hit line drives all day), and Slaught had a 16-year career as a platoon catcher, several of those as a starter. It would require a little more luck, a team that understands the value of his skillset, and a great season in Double-A (Slaught hit .336 in Double-A at 22).
I think Thole’s future probably is that of a platoon catcher. The Mike Redmond comparison is decent. That being said, I still think he is a top 20 prospect. However, that is more due to the lack of depth in our system than anything else.
Josh Thole looks like the brightest of the 3. I’m hopeful for him, and see no reason to set any limits on the guy just yet. AA has a way of sorting these things out anyway. Let’s just hope for the best.
Shawn Bowman has never had much (any?) plate discipline, even at his best. His power was pretty awesome at 19, but he’s a very borderline guy now. I wouldn’t put too much stock into his age, since he lost 2 years to a back injury, but if he Ks 40% of the time in the minors, it amounts to a non-prospect.
Owen is a 5th-starter/middle reliever if he makes it at all.
Gee, however, is very interesting.