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December 18, 2008
Free Agent Fallout
With the Mets leaving the winter meetings a big winner, attention now turns to the rest of the Mets roster and what else can be added through free agency to fill additional holes. When assessing who could fit the Mets plans, it’s important to see how recent signings and terms will affect what the Mets would like to do. Does the Royals’ signing of Kyle Farnsworth affect the Mets possible pursuit of another bullpen arm? Is A.J. Burnett’s five-year deal with the Yankees enough to price the Mets out of the Derek Lowe sweepstakes? Answering these questions will help predict where the Mets might focus their resources moving forward. Kyle Farnsworth, KC (2 years, $9.25 million, plus option): Quite a contract for a player three years removed from his last above average big league season. Takashi Saito has been discussed as a target in MetsGeek threads, but with a career ERA of 1.95 to Farnsworth’s 4.47, he should receive a two-year deal at six-to-eight million, even at his advanced age and as a definite injury risk. Farnsworth’s contract also leaves Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon salivating over what the open market could mean for them. With that said, can the Mets afford to add a third reliever with $24 million already tied into the set up man and closer role? As for Putz, how much better does his trade look knowing the Mets secured a former All-Star closer with a career ERA 1.40 runs less than Farnsworth for just less than a million more in 2009? Raul Ibanez, PHI (3 years, $31.5 million): Ibanez’ signing sets the floor for what both Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn should receive on the open market. However, with Ibanez being four years Burrell’s elder and seven years older than Dunn, each may hold out for more years than Ibanez and two to five million dollars more per year. Ibanez’ signing leaves Mets fans hoping to land a big outfield bat on the cheap with little more than shattered dreams. Can the Mets still afford a big bat? Definitely, but post-Ibanez, the Mets may be forced into thinking Adam-Dunn-or-bust. He will command a larger deal but adds durability, consistency, and the possibility of a move to first base once Carlos Delgado’s days in New York are up. Burrell at anything less than a discount just does not fit the Mets future plans with their current pieces. From a pitching standpoint, does a 3-4-5 of Utley, Howard, and Ibanez make the Mets more likely to re-sign Oliver Perez than originally thought? With a lefty middle of the order in Philly, Perez makes perfect sense. Randy Wolf also gains steam as a secondary option as well. A.J. Burnett, NYY (5 years, $82.5 million): With only three 200-inning seasons under his belt, Burnett is being paid much more than the risky signing he actually is. Derek Lowe has four years on Burnett, but also two more 200-inning seasons (one other season at 199 1/3 IP), two All-Star appearances, and a twenty win season, meaning Lowe’s age shouldn’t keep him from demanding, and possibly receiving a five-year pact. With a contract taking him through his age forty season, it’s hard to see the Mets remaining major players for his services. Edgar Renteria, SF (2 years, $18.5 million): With a .290/.347/.405 career line including five All-Star appearances, I had pegged Renteria as a possible answer to the Mets’ second base problem after his disappointing 2008. Little did I know .270/.317/.382 and average defense would cost $9 million-plus annually. With Orlando Hudson being one of the steadiest second basemen in baseball over the past three seasons, he may demand twice the years at close to $10 million per. While some would say shortstop is a much harder position to fill than second base, which is historically accurate, currently the shortstop position is deeper at both the big-league and minor-league levels, leaving second basemen at a premium. With the Mets investment in Reese Havens as the second baseman of the future, is a four year deal for Hudson even worth discussing? Damaso Marte, NYY (3 years, $12 million, plus option): Joe Beimel is another name I hear bantered about on Mets message boards. In the “what have you done for me lately?” world that is free agency, Beimel is in line to receive a lucrative offer even though his peripherals were much worse than his ERA indicates. However, with three consecutive above average seasons, Beimel may be much less of a risk than his peripherals show. Will Ohman is a slightly lesser option who is looking for at least two years at likely similar dollars to what Marte and Jeremy Affeldt (see below) received. Jeremy Affeldt, SF (2 years, $8 million): Affeldt’s deal definitely set the baseline for a quality lefty at four million per. He would have been a great add for the Mets as his age and history as a former starting pitcher would have given the Mets the option to use him out of the pen or have him compete for the fifth starter role. With only one proven lefty in the pen, the $4 million per year both Affeldt and Marte will receive as relatively average lefty relievers means the Mets might need to be creative in procuring another left hander. Maybe Brian Shouse would work in the short term as his age (40) might bring the price tag down a touch. Beyond Shouse, a couple of lefties with injury histories also may be worth taking a flyer on. Chuck James posted back-to-back, eleven-win seasons for the Braves before injuries derailed his potential as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. Would James accept the opportunity to compete for the final rotation slot with the opportunity to stick in the pen if things don’t quite work out? Tyler Johnson from St. Louis may also be an option as he works his way back from a torn labrum. At 27, he missed all of the 2008 season after making strides in 2006 and 2007. At this point, it’s likely the Mets will take their foot off the gas and wait for a few bigger names to sign before focusing on a couple of additional pieces. While adding a starter is almost guaranteed, an everyday bat is much less likely. As a proponent of the Mets upgrading in right field, it may be a more realistic expectation for the team to add offense at the deadline; the Mets will be in the National League East mix, barring a catastrophe. Targets could include prospective free agents Magglio Ordonez, Rick Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, and a handful of others depending on who’s selling. Click here to check out Mike’s offseason free agent grades and see where the Francisco Rodriguez deal stacks up. 15 Responses to “Free Agent Fallout”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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No way the Phillies set up their 3-4-5 that way. Expect Werth to at least split Howard and Ibanez.
With their all-lefty lineup in Philly, the Mets may push to sign BOTH Ollie and Wolf.
3 lefties in the rotation, in theory at least, could neutralize the heart of the philthy lineup.
That said, I still want Derek Lowe over Wolf.
Good piece, Mike!
If the Mets think they need a Lefty, sign Lowe and trade either Maine or Pelfrey (or Lowe) for one. I am not high on Ollie P. at all, except as a 4th starter or below; and he’ll command much more money than that.
Late addition:
Rafael Furcal, LAD/ATL/OAK/Somewhere (3 years, $30 million) - This move sets the baseline for free agent waffling, with players now allowed only one mulligan before choosing their new team. It also makes for some good ol’ nostalgic schadenfreude at the expense of the Braves. On the plus side, with Furcal staying in LA, the packed highway system should allow him to avoid further DWI’s as he will blend in with the rest of the stopped cars.
Are we really sold on trying to upgrade Ryan Church? In this market? Assuming he’s healthy, he was probably our best position player until he got hurt, and a plus right fielder. Left field, second base, even catcher I see as potential concerns. Right field would be far down on my list.
Who in the hell would want Adam Dunn?
I’m continuously and constantly baffled by the over-valuation of the guy. He can’t field a position. And the last time I checked, the Mets are still in the NL.
His inability to run or do anything other than hit forty home runs, draw unproductive walks and make an astonishing number of ugly useless outs… he’s a breathing argument against overvaluing OPS.
The mathematical value of his forty homeruns… one hundred and sixty bases… if they’re in garbage time when there’s no point in pitching around him, there are much more valuable collections of one hundred and sixty bases.
I’m not a big Ryan Church fan, I’m still not convinced that he should be at the plate against lefties on a regular basis… but for God’s sake, the dude has an above-average glove the other 50% of the game and with two outs and a runner on second, there’s a CHANCE he’ll hit a long single instead of drawing a meaningless walk or striking out or rolling the dice on getting the statistical fluke that is one of forty home runs in seven hundred plate appearences.
In any given game situation, in any one game, I can’t think of a player where his numbers are more of a lie in terms of actual potential run production than Adam Dunn.
Even Ryan Howard, whose average numbers are nearly as ridiculously over-valued, at least that’s a lot more a function of being painfully streaky and when he’s hot, he’s got SO much power than the strikeouts are balanced away.
But if there’s any player in the game where his statistic percentages over 162 games are a bald faced lie in a given at-bat or in any one game’s four or five at-bats, it is Adam goddamned Dunn.
And, I mean, if you’re an AL team and you whiffed on your first five options as your DH and you’re stuck with Adam Dunn… then I almost buy it. As a desperation call because everything else of a certain quality is gone.
But half of the NL game, as an outfielder or a firstbaseman… you’re crippling yourself at a defensive position just to GET his day-to-day fraudulent offensive statistics.
You can’t sign a baseball player to a real baseball team just because… okay, look, he’s the equivalent to the crappy wide-receiver you keep on your fantasy football team because you know his team sucks and he’s going to get some desperation receiving yards when his team is in “there’s no way we’ll get three touchdowns in eight minutes running the ball” garbage time.
The numbers are there, yes, and they count in a fantasy game… but they don’t actually mean a goddamned thing on the real field of play in most cases.
Oh Lord. Adam Dunn.
Adam Dunn as an option because you just don’t have anything else is one thing. But Adam Dunn as some sort of quality player, a half-step below the elite level who can definitely improve your team?
Bullcrap.
I don’t understand. Why don’t his 40 homers count again? They all come in meaningless situations? Does that mean he needs more “clutchness” and “grit”? Should we sign him and then hire a grit/clutch coach to bring out his inner gritability?
Weirdness. I think I just been blocked from Metsgeek by the IT dept. I can access this page but am blocked from others.
Dunn isn’t short enough to be “gritty”, so his 40+ HRs suffer a 38.5% reduction in value.
I mean, come on, who the heck wants a guy who has a career on-base percentage of .381 and a career slugging over .500. And that silly career OPS+ of 130? That’s not gritty at all.
Plus, I think Adam Dunn once kicked lfm’s dog. Not cool.
If your forty home runs are basically the only bullets in your talent gun, yeah, they don’t mean all that much.
Because, really, how many of those are actually going to happen in meaningful situations… especially when good pitchers treat you one-dimensionally as you should be treated… and how many of them will happen against mop-up relievers and fifth starters you’re vulturing off?
And how many of your horrible warning track popouts and strikeouts will happen when you could’ve actually done something?
And how much of your OBP is pitchers not wanting to roll the dice on your flukey power and just putting you on first so you can’t maybe accidentally do something?
How bad would the right-side-of-the-infield be if it were Castillo and Dunn? Man, that would be hilariously sad.
Exactly, if 40 homers are your only talent, that’s pretty lame. Dunn’s .381 on-base percentage pretty clearly showns that he’s clearly not talented at making outs. That lack of out-making talent *really* hurts his grittyness. Because really, just because outs are the only commodity in a game that are non-fungible, who cares right?
Damn dirty base-clogging dog-kicker.
Love those lfm posts. So upbeat and insightful. How can you put so much thought into something and still be totally wrong?
Here’s a list of all of Dunn’s HRs.
Looking at 2008, I count 3 “garbage time” home runs (up or down by 5 runs or more).
Yeah, that guy sucks.
I have no idea what a talent gun is, but I’m guessing you are saying that Adam Dunn is essentially a one-trick pony? Fine. His only trick is doing the single thing that is most valuable to a baseball team in its quest to win baseball games - producing runs.
Adam Dunn career RC/G - 7.3. I’ll take that bullet in my team’s talent gun any day of the week.
I’m trying to figure out where you came up with this idea that Adam Dunn somehow produces against poor competition.
He is the owner of 278 career home runs. Only 88 of those have come against relief pitching. He has 76 career home runs and a .956 career OPS in his first at-bat of the game against a starting pitcher. Evidence seems to suggest that he hits home runs when they matter. This is compared to a still very good .884 career OPS against relief pitchers (when the game, according to you, is no longer in doubt).
And let’s see who exactly he’s been hitting his home runs and doing his damage against.
Let’s track him against some of the best pitchers from teams he’s played against.
vs. Tim Hudson: 5-15, 1HR, .975 OPS
vs. Carlos Zambrano: 13-56, 7 HR, 15/12 BB/K, 1.014 OPS
vs. Ryan Dempster: 4-11, 1 HR, 10/3 BB/K, 1.394 OPS
vs. Ted Lilly: 2-9, 1 HR, 4/4 BB/K, 1.017 OPS
vs. Roy Oswalt: 16-64, 4 HR, 13/19 BB/K, .939 OPS
vs. Jeff Suppan (admittedly not great, but he’s about the best the Brewers have right now): 13-27, 1 HR, 10/3 BB/K, 1.446 OPS
vs. Johan Santana (small sample size alert): 1-1, 1 HR, 1/0 BB/K, 5.000 OPS
vs. Brad Lidge: 4-16, 1 HR, 4/8 BB/K, .909 OPS
vs. Brett Meyers: 3-15, 2 HR, 6/5 BB/K, 1.095 OPS
vs. Zach Duke: 5-11, 1 HR, 3/5 BB/K, 1.390 OPS
vs. Matt Capps: 3-7, 1 HR, 1/3 BB/K, 1.643 OPS
vs. Jake Peavy: 5-25, 2 HR, 6/9 BB/K, .784 OPS
vs. Trevor Hoffman: 2-7, 1 HR, 1/3 BB/K, 1.089 OPS
vs. Adam Wainright: 4-12, 1 HR, 5/2 BB/K, 1.113 OPS
vs. Kevin Milwood: 8-17, 6 HR, 0/5 BB/K, 2.029 OPS
vs. Roy Halladay: 3-7, 1 HR, 1/3 BB/K, 1.357
He also owns home runs off of both former teammates Brandon Webb and Dan Haren.
Consider yourself served.
All of them. Just like all 40 of his home runs will come when he could have actually done something.
About as bad as, say, Castillo and Delgado. But that’s not the point. Dunn plays left field, and his offensive prowess will more than make up for any deficiency in the field.
Defense is completely overvalued by the market, and left field is probably the least important defensive position of all. If you’ve watched Dunn play, you’ll recognize that he’s not really the oaf you’re making him out to be. The guy signed to play football at Texas out of high school (and not as an offensive lineman). He knows how to move a little bit.
I signed up for this site just to blow you to pieces. You need to go read a book about baseball or something.
While I don’t agree with the viciousness of LFM’s post, I do agree with the overall concept that Dunn is overrated. He is abysmal in the field and horribly slow which lowers the effectiveness of those walks. While he would certainly be an upgrade to our offense, I do not think that he is a good bet for a 4 or 5 year deal. If we can get him for 2 years at a reasonable rate he could be a good value. Personally, I would rather roll the dice with Murphy and see what I can get out of him and spend the money on the rotation.