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December 16, 2008
Suitors and Trade Targets for Daniel Murphy
If Daniel Murphy does not work out at 2nd, or if Omar refuses to consider it, the Mets have to strongly consider selling high on him. Murphy is most valuable as a 3rd baseman, which the Mets do not need, and he is at a high point in his value. The Mets have no solutions at 2nd base in the system and Fernando! coming up in Left Field. There is thus no room for both Murphy, Evans, and Martinez on this team. Unless you believe that the Mets’ farm system is meaningless, you have to assume that sooner or later, F!Mart will be playing for the Mets. That’s the way baseball teams are built. You sign free agents, you trade prospects for players, but on some level and at some point, your best prospects must contribute to the big club. To plug Murphy as a 1st base platoon partner with Nick Evans would be stupid for obvious reasons. To use a player in a part-time role at the weakest position in baseball when his trade value will net a full-time player in a valuable defensive position is a monstrous waste of resources. Furthermore, you’d be wasting both Murphy and Nick Evans, who could very well develop into a fine every-day 1st baseman in his own right. Thus, eventually, either Murphy must play second base, or either he or Evans (or both) must be traded and the other assigned to play first. Murphy is a player with legitimate perceived value now, so this ditty will explore the route of trading him, should this be the way to go. So this leads to two questions: who could use Murphy and what young, good middle infielders are available? Murphy’s explosion onto the scene in 2008, combined with his youth would make him a player that teams would gladly take a flier on. Any team in need of a third baseman would have some interest. Contenders in need of a third baseman: Note: All trades proposed only cite focal points. They are not intended as finalized proposals and I acknowledge that most trades would have to be leveraged (i.e. other players would have to be added on either side) to be completed. Smaller Markets: I set these apart because they would probably be more receptive to such a deal. It’s difficult for small market teams to take the next step to contention because of the expense involved in acquiring those decisive pieces. They would thus stand to gain the most from taking a flier in a guy like Murphy and banking on striking gold. Also, since such teams play very close attention to their organizations, they will be able to offer the Mets some desperately needed depth in return. With these teams, I would structure the deal in the following way. We give them Daniel Murphy in return for a solid, moderately-paid middle infielder and a couple of high-upside low level prospects. (Obviously there would be leverage considerations–throw-ins, etc.–on both sides.) The upgrade from Castillo–one of the five least valuable second basemen in baseball in 2008–to even an average 2nd baseman would be huge, and we round out Murphy’s value by fortifying the system. The trading partner gets to push for winning now on the cheap in exchange for some down the road talent of which they are likely enjoying surpluses anyway, and average current talent. -Arizona: Target: Mark Reynolds/Felipe Lopez The prospect of acquiring a guy like Murphy might lead the Diamondbacks to consider putting Mark Reynolds’ meh OBP at second base and give us Lopez, or simply give us Mark Reynolds outright to play second base. He’s not particularly good there, but he has some experience, and will again be better than either Murphy (defensively) or Castillo (overall). If we ask for Lopez, we will also demand a bit of young upside prospects, such as Trevor Harden, Gerardo Parra, or Daniel Schlereth. If they offer Reynolds, the trade would be more difficult to leverage–because it would be hard to estimate the defensive value of Reynolds at second over a full season–but it would still be doable. Obviously the trick here is who the Mets would be able to get in addition to either of these players. Note however that either of these two decidedly uninspiring infielders would be a legitimate upgrade from Luis Castillo. The Twins have some nice outfield prospects including Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks, not to mention Carlos Gomez. (Indeed, wouldn’t it be something if the Mets netted Carlos Gomez in this deal, and Murphy busted while Gomez broke out? A three-stooges triple-heist? One can dream. -Oakland: Target: Adrian Cardenas Billy Bean wants to contend next year, and Murphy’s just the kind of cheap wild-card he’ll need to pull it off. If the As have Mark Ellis, they won’t be needing Cardenas for awhile, and the Mets would be able to demand other pieces in a rich system as well. The only question is who plays second for the short term, which the Mets would have to deal with separately. Larger Markets: Larger market teams do not need to take risks on a guy like Murphy, since they can afford more secure options; thus he will likely not yield as high a return here, all other things held equal. Of course, all other things are rarely held equal. -Chicago White Sox: Target: ??? The White Sox badly need help at third, and they are desperate to contend. A team that is simultaneously as desperate and inept as the White Sox is begging to be victimized in some way. If only they had anything worth stealing; their farm looks like it was given to the care of Chauncey Gardner. -Detroit: Target(s): Carlos Guillen/Placido Polonco(?)/Adam Everett(?) One year of Brandon Inge and a raided farm system, combined with a bloated payroll, an aging team, and an ownership of questionable aptitude that wants to contend more than it admits might make Detroit another good mark. If the Tigers want to trade Guillen, I’d be more than happy to take him and put him at second base, as he’s not that old and has been a good infielder throughout his career. I believe any of these three players could be available for Daniel Murphy if the deal is leveraged correctly; and if it’s Guillen, I’d be happy to take a nice piece of what’s left of Detroit’s system and throw in Castillo while we’re at it. (Pinch me for saying Rick Porcello!) -Philladelphia: Targets: Pedro Feliz/Brad Harmon/Jason Donald Dobbs has yet to prove that he’s more than a platoon player, and Pedro Feliz does not have the bat to carry third, so the Phils should have good use for Murphy. Feliz would be an upgrade over Castillo at second base, and the Phils–like the Mets–have a few very nice low-level prospects who would make good additional pieces like Kyle Drabek , Jason Donald, Dominic Brown, and Brad Harmon. Also, given the Phillies’ recent bewildering personell decisions, they look like a good mark at this point. Good potential here. -LA Angels: Target(s):Sean Rodriguez/Howie Kendrick/Chone Figgens It’s not clear if the Angels remain high on Brandon Wood, and if they are not, a deal involving Kendrick, Sean Rodriguez, or Chone Figgens is very possible. If the focus were to be Chone Figgens, obviously it would be with the intention of plugging Figgens at second for the short term, and getting some low-level high upside prospects from the Angels to round the deal out, like Jordan Walden. Good potential here. Non-Contenders in need of a third baseman: With a non-contender, a Murphy trade would amount to organizational maneuvering on all parties, with each attempting to gain equal value while filling organizational needs. Since the non-contender is thinking long-term, such a franchise does not stand to gain from high risk maneuvers and will place less emphasis on breakout potential. -Seattle: Target(s): Adrian Beltre/Carlos Triunfel The Mariners don’t technically need a 3rd baseman, having Adrian Beltre under contract until the end of 2009. But we could sure use Beltre–who is a magician at third–at second base; and they could sure use a long-term inexpensive solution at the position, which they currently lack. Daniel Murphy for Adrian Beltre and some low-level, high-upside prospects would be doable, as would–perhaps–Murphy for Triunfel, although that would require more leveraging on both ends, and would require the Mets to find a viable short-term 2nd base solution separately. -Pittsburgh: Target: ??? Andy Laroche isn’t inspiring much in the way of confidence; but their system is worse than the Mets’, and it’s unclear whom they could give back at this point that would fit the needs of both teams, even upon the introduction of a third party. -Houston: Target: ??? Again, this system is bankrupt–far worse than the Mets’–and they have no one to give in return, even with a third party added. They have no one slated for third base, and yet they non-tendered the perfectly decent Ty Wiggington. Ed Wade, as usual, is in a level all to himself. -Cleveland: Target: Asdrubal Cabrera/Luis Valbuena They need a third baseman rather badly, but might not trust Valbuena as a replacement for Cabrera yet. Nonetheless, we could sell a deal involving these focal points if we were to convince the Indians that they were at least making marginal gains, whereas we would improve greatly by adding a needed piece and dropping a redundancy. Either Murphy for Valbuena or Murphy for Cabrera would require leveraging; but both would be very doable IMO. -Baltimore: Target: ??? Melvin Mora is a free agent after the ‘09 season–the Orioles would be foolish to exercise his option–and is so poor defensively at this point that he is an overall liability at his position. Since the Mets have no room for Mora–even as a dump–and the Orioles have nobody with whom to replace Brian Roberts in the system should they include him–as well as no reason why they would want to sell him–a third party would have to be involved here. Once again, other thoughts are welcome. 19 Responses to “Suitors and Trade Targets for Daniel Murphy”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I think we´re probably all overvaluing Murphy a little bit. I don´t know what we could get for him, but some of the above suggestions are interesting starting points for discussion.
I´ve read about Omar thinking of Murphy for 1B in the future. Does Murphy have the power for the position? I´m a little worried about a cleanup hitter for 2010 and beyond, as well as protection for Wright and Beltran in the lineup. Murphy won´t provide that. Who will? No idea. That´s why the idea of signing Dunn this year and putting him in LF for one year is intriguing to me; move him to 1B in 2010 and let F! play LF then.
To trade Murphy now because he might be blocking someone else in a year or two is pointless. Of the the three (Murphy, Evans, Fernando), Murphy has had some success in the bigs and is probably the closest to being a sure thing. If Evans or Fernando pan out, then worry about moving someone. Murphy’s value isn’t so high now that they’d get a star in return, so why move him for a middle of the road veteran (that may or may not be able to play second, based on your list - Mark Reynolds? Seriously? He played 2 games there because the D-Backs were desperate for offense). Trades like that are the the kind that the Mets need to get away from.
Now tm, it’s not that Murph is blocking F!Mart that is a primary reason; it’s that:
A) We have no place for him now, except perhaps Left Field.
B) His optimal value (and hence optimal return) is at 3rd base, which is occupied.
C) We have options for Left Field both in the long and short term. We have no options for 2nd base in either term, unless we parlay Murphy.
It’s all a matter of leveraging value. If we trade Murphy for a “middle of the road veteran”, we’d also try for some low-level high-ceiling prospects. And Murphy’s value is Murphy’s value. If you could trade Murphy for a Murphy clone who could play 2nd base (adjusting his offensive production to project this) you wouldn’t do it?
Think about it. You’re the Arizona Diamondbacks. You’re a piece away from real contention. You think Mark Reynolds can cut it defensively at 2nd, and some guy offers you Daniel Murphy for Felipe Lopez and your version of Jeff Marte. Murphy just put up an OPS+ of 135 in his first 150 big league ABs. You don’t have much money, and you’ve got a bunch of guys like Marte; and if Murphy comes up aces, he could really take you over the top in a weak NL West.
Why wouldn’t you pull the trigger>
I think BTW that Adrian Beltre would be the best route, along with a high-upside Seattle prospect or 2. He seems to be the best fit, and I have every reason to believe that a 3rd base wizard like Beltre could be a very good 2nd baseman.
Someone has to play Left and I’d rather see Murphy get the lions share of PAs over Tatis. Dunn, Burrell, et al. are probably not options due to the price tag and the need for at least one good starting pitcher.
Adrian Beltre has never played an inning at 2B as a pro. Rather than giving up young talent to get him, why wouldn’t they try to convert the guy they already have? Would it be worth the risk? Would Beltre even waive his no trade if he had to change positions? Thumbs down.
I’m not fundamentally opposed to trading Murphy, but none of the proposals you’ve laid out are particularly enticing. Or realistic, I would do Murphy for Rick Porcello in a heartbeat, but he’s one of the top 2 or 3 prospects in baseball, the Tigers wouldn’t trade him for a busload of Dan Murphys.
Plus, unless Omar can get someone drunk enough to take Castillo, it’s all a moot point; he’ll be the second baseman this year.
I was sever particularly serious about Porcello–as is evident from the way I phrased it.
If you’re willing to go with Murphy, Delgado, Church, Castillo, and Schneider all in the lineup, that’s your prerogative. The last two are guaranteed flops, and the top three are huge question marks. Murphy could very easily be below average for Left Field. If you’re contending now, you can’t afford that kind of uncertainty.
Beltre, again, would only be a one-year solution and the main issue would be whether we can land a Jeff Marte equivalent or two in addition. Beltre is the kind of defensive wizard at third that can translate into 2nd base w/o a problem. Then, upon signing an Adam Dunn, you turn that lineup into Dunn, Delgado, Beltre, Church, Schneider. This is a passable bottom of a lineup on a team with championship aspirations, and you stock the farm also.
Staying with Castillo instead of an average second baseman is like spotting the opposition a run on every Saturday game. If Omar wants to do that, it’s his prerogative.
I disagree with this. Murphy made 40 errors in one minor league season at first. I don’t think the Mets or many other teams value him as thirdbaseman.
The kid can hit but has a weak glove/arm.
He’s best off in LF - in my opinion. F-Mart should play RF not LF
and he’s not ready yet eithet so what’s the rush in trading Murphy.
I completely agree. Send him out for a either a good replacement for schnieder or castro, or a replacement for castillo.
We have Tatis coming back in LF, Pagan also coming back (and had shown he can be good), and a BUNCH of LF’ers in the open market that are not getting any good deals.
We trade Murph right now, and wait till end of January when perhaps Dunn gets cheap, and sign him to a few years. Get him to be LF in 09, and then move him to 1b when delgado is gone and Fmart is major league ready.
Dunn will be a better long term option in 1b rather than murph (if that rumor is true).
Agreed MightyJoe - as much as I like Murphy and want to seem him succeed with the Mets, they might be better off selling high on him now.
I would love Beltre for 2nd but as you pointed out he’s a magician at 3B - would he accept the 2nd base role?
Why is Murphy “at the height of his value”?
That’s a pretty giant assumption as far as I’m concerned. What if he puts up an .825 OPS in 2009? That’s pretty valuable as far as I’m concerned, and I would see no reason why he couldn’t move to 1b and replace Delgado in 2010?
I’d also thought about selling high on Murphy, but your proposals illustrate the problem with that. First, all of them are contingent on us getting a better hitter than Murphy to play LF. If we go ahead and do that, we’ll then be faced with the choice of either:
a) playing Murphy at 2B or
b) trading him to get a better 2B option. The Mets are built to win now, and concerns about restocking our system should come in 2nd here, barring scenarios like Porcello.
So who’s the better 2B option out there? A defensive whiz with a worse bat than Castillo like Adam Everett? A fading slugger whose defense is so limited his manager wants him in LF like Carlos Guillen? Established solid players who haven’t proven they can play 2B, like Beltre?
None of these seem quite worth it to me.
The best way I can see selling high on Murphy is including him in a trade for an elite starting pitcher. If only Peavy wasn’t afraid on the Northeast…
(Plus, I think Castillo will bounce back slightly and not be too far below the average MLB 2B.)
Carlos Guillen is not as bad as the Tigers make him out to be. He has been a + defender at short in 2006 I believe. He will be double the player Castillo is. His contract is not deadly, but if we offer a guy like Murph, and accept Guillen’s contract, we can demand some nice farm pieces. Two birds with one stone.
I would expect that CONSERVATIVELY, Guillen is 3 wins better than Castillo in 2009 and Castillo probably can’t play anymore in 2010.
Huh. So you think the Tigers are undervaluing Guillen, and will foolishly trade him for a less-proven hitter, and will also throw in relevant prospects??? Just to shave $7 mil (I think) off their 2009 payroll? I can’t really imagine that.
I remember Guillen being a good SS, but I don’t think the Tigers would be jerking him aorund like this if he hadn’t fallen off a cliff defensively. I think he’s had some mobility-sapping injuries that aren’t going away.
I dunno; if we sign Dunn on a nice-looking deal, maybe I’ll feel differently. Although, even then, I’d be looking at 2010, when Dunn’s our 1B, Guillen’s on his last legs (or a FA?), and we have to sign another big FA to play LF.
The tigers don’t really like Gullen for some reason. Perhaps it’s because he’s due $36MM through his age 35 season. If they’re looking to get rid of his salary and they need a 3B, and we’re offering one who’s 24 and dirt-cheap coming off a 130 OPS+ (yes, in around 150 ABs) then yes.
Can we get the prospect in addition? It depends on how much they want to dump the contract and how much they don’t like Guillen. But low-level high-upside guys are not particularly expensive (witness our throw-in of Cleto). It’s possible. If it’s Beltre, it’ll be necessary. Beltre’s a rental whom the rebuilding Mariners have little use for.
And if nobody likes Murphy enough to make a deal we like, fine. We keep him.
2010, F!Mart should be ready. Although I hate looking at a guy who’s never even tasted AAA as a savior. But that’s what top prospects are for. To step in the majors.
I would only trade him for brian roberts other than that your ideas are foolish there would be to much backlash by fans. They would only aprove roberts since he is a great 2Baseman
I would trade Murphy for one year of Adrian Beltre and a Cleto-like prospect in quite the heartbeat if I didn’t think Murph could cut it at 2nd. Without the prospect? Iffy, but a definite maybe.
The WS aren’t inept. Especially not as inept as you think they are. Not even close to it.
Compare the record of the WS under KW, with the record of the Indians under Mark Shapiro.