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December 9, 2008
Closing The Left Field Gap
Heading into the Winter Meetings, the Mets project a platoon of Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy in leftfield for 2009. The merits of adding outfielders Randy Winn, Ryan Ludwick or Jose Guillen via trade have been covered in recent weeks at MetsGeek. However, there are several free agent outfielders available whom the Mets might consider signing. I evaluated historical offensive and defensive performance of the Murphy/Tatis tandem and the obtainable free agents in order to come up with a recommendation. Keep the following thoughts/assumptions in mind while reading: 1) Improving the bullpen and rotation are priorities this offseason. The offense is secondary, but still important. Current Projected LF Daniel Murphy, age 24 Fernando Tatis, age 34 If Murphy and Tatis could produce at the same level in 2009 as 2008, no upgrade would be necessary. However, Bill James projects an .849 OPS for Murphy and .759 for Tatis. I think Murphy’s projection is a bit high, but Tatis’s is realistic. Right-handed hitters Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are free agents next offseason, so the Mets might be wise to wait a season to target one of them. Free Agents Bobby Abreu, age 35 Abreu’s biggest asset throughout his career has been the ability to get on-base. The last 2 seasons have seen sharp declines in his BB% - from 18.5% in 2006 to 10.7% in 2008. His power has declined as well, and his road OPS’s of .725 in 2007 and .772 in 2008 lead me to conclude he was helped by hitter friendly Yankee Stadium. The Yankees did not offer arbitration to Abreu, meaning he won’t cost the team that signs him a draft pick. Abreu’s defense is poor, and the same can be said for all the players listed here. Pat Burrell, age 32 The right-handed hitting Burrell is a notorious “Met killer”, as 42 of his 251 career homers have come vs. the Mets. Burrell has “old player skills” (limited athletic ability, good power and on-base percentage), and these types of players generally peak earlier in their career and do not age well. Because of this, a deal any longer than 3 years would be too risky. Adam Dunn, age 29 Dunn is a polarizing player, as fans seem to either love him or despise him. I’m a fan of his, because of his strong OBP and SLG. His career OPS is .900 – for comparison, Mark Teixeira’s is .919. However, his K% is usually one of the worst in baseball, and his low batting average is viewed by many as a negative. He poses no threat to steal a base and is poor defensively. The Mets could consider moving him to 1B in 2010 after they presumably cut ties with Carlos Delgado. Raul Ibanez, age 36 Amazingly consistent, Ibanez has posted nearly identical statistics over the last 3 seasons. He is generally considered to be a strong clubhouse presence and, as one baseball writer noted this offseason, he is “in better shape than a lot of 25 year-olds.” These are all admirably qualities in a ballplayer, but the fact that it will cost the team that signs him a top draft pick decreases his value. Manny Ramirez, age 36 There is no question that Ramirez is historically great and remains one of the top 5 hitters in baseball even in his late 30’s. I think his problems with the Red Sox were overblown, and the myth that he quit on his team before being traded to the Dodgers is nicely debunked here. This isn’t to say I think he’s a great clubhouse guy like Cliff Floyd or Lenny Harris. The team that signs him will likely be overpaying for his all around services. His defensive showing in 2008 was unimpressive, but was his best since 1999. Perhaps because 2008 was a contract year? Look for Ramirez’s defense to revert to his horrendous 2007 performance (UZR -18.3, FRAA -6, +/- of -24) Recommendation Considering Ibanez rejected the Mariners’ arbitration offer, there is just no justification for signing him. I’m crossing him off this list because Ibanez is essentially identical to Abreu, except signing Abreu would not cost a draft pick. Abreu’s defense is probably the worst of the group, and his offense just isn’t good enough to compensate. With the contract he’ll likely command, he’s out of the running. I don’t think the Mets will be able to afford Ramirez after presumably making expensive signings to improve the bullpen and rotation, so he’s out. This leaves Burrell and Dunn. I love what Burrell would bring to the Mets lineup: a proven right-handed bat who should have a few years of .250/.370/.500 hitting left. A 2 or 3 year deal is attractive to me, except for the fact that he was a big part of the World Champion Phillies (shudder). I think it might be too awkward for Met fans to root for and embrace him. My pick is Dunn, if he is available at a fair price. I don’t believe he is facing a “big pay cut” from his 2008 salary of $13 million as others have speculated, but the Mets would be smart to pick him up if he can be had for 3 years and about $33-36 million. If his price is much higher than that, I say stick with Murphy/Tatis. This all said, upgrade the bullpen and rotation first Omar Minaya! 12 Responses to “Closing The Left Field Gap”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I like Dunn a lot also. But I think I’d rather keep the LF platoon, trade Castillo and sign Orlando Hudson.
Dunn also bats left and we need a righty bat
btw, this is a terrific breakdown, James
Unless Murphy is playing 2B, the Mets are probably better off not signing a leftfielder to block him. At most they should be looking at a fourth outfielder/lefty bat to platoon with Tatis if Murphy flops. If they do move Castillo, I agree that Dunn is the right choice. Who gives a crap about his Ks, dude can mash.
grinch:
1 - Hudson is a better bat, but I’m not sure how much better than Castillo he is defensively. He’s got a good reputation as a fielder (so did Castillo when he came to NY), but the fielding metrics are mixed on how much better he is than Castillo. If Castillo goes it should be so Murphy can play second (with Punto or somebody as a platoon partner/defensive replacement).
2 - Look at the splits, Dunn does fine against leftys. His .833 career OPS against LHP is better than Church’s .818 against RHP.
I think Church is a huge question mark in RF.
Church 2.0 hit .219/.305/.307/.612 in 128 PA in the second half last year. We should be platooning both corner OF spots as we are currently constructed.
Even though his final numbers were right around his career averages (276/436/439 vs. 272/347/457) Church was so good at the beginning of the season, he probably deserves a chance to prove his second half last year was a fluke related to the concussions.
They definitely need a better contingency plan than Angel Pagan this year though.
Yea, you can’t afford to have Angel Pagan as your 4th outfielder when ND is your 5th
ND is a fan favorite and all that, but he’s practically useless to this roster. his real value is the amazing CF he can play and we never need that with the god known as Tron.
I think, with a reasonable contract, Ibanez would be a serious upgrade for the Mets outfield, and a good influence in the clubhouse. He will only cost a second round pick, since the first round will go the the Angels for K-Rod. I prefer Beltran, Ibanez, Tatis/Murphy to to Beltran, Church, Tatis/Murphy. I don’t think the Mets see Murphy as a second baseman, he’s ok, but not stellar defensively.
I don’t think either Ibanez or Murphy can play RF. Ibanez was one of the worst defensive LFs in baseball last year.
I like signing Dunn if the idea is to add him to the OF rotation this year and have him take over at 1B next year. It gives us some much better depth in the OF (Core of Dunn-Beltran-Church with Murphy/ND/Tatis backup assuming we don’t move Church in a seperate deal). However, LF is just too low on the priority list for me, if we solve the pen and rotation and can do this then great, if not, then ohh well.
With Church final numbers for 2006-2008 being almost identical year in and year out, could it be Church’s first two months were actually the fluke?
One word: Shawn Green
Sorry, my nephew made that last post without telling me.
Not that Manny is a defensive whiz, but I think his range numbers get killed by Fenway.
Dunn is probably the best of the bunch, yes. This guy Kannengieser’s a pretty sharp cookie it seems.