I am going to skip the ridiculously long introduction this time and just ask you guys to check out my first and more successful second journals. Also, please comment if you have a second. The more you guys comment the more likely I’ll be to try harder next time. The harder I’m trying to write a journal the less likely I am to perfect my plans for world domination. Do you really want to risk it? 

            Anyway, I was listening to Mike Francessa for a while today. I don’t know why or what came over me, I must be coming down with something, but he got me thinking. He and most other Yankee fans have this confidence about them when it comes to free agents this off season. They seem to just “know” they will get C.C., A.J. and any other players that go by initials their little heart desires. They all sound like the spoiled kid on Christmas who just “knows” they will get that pony. The rest of us have these realistic viewpoints that while we may want something, the price tag can sometimes cause problems.

            Luckily for us the price of the first thing under the tree for every Met fan seems to be falling quicker than GM stock, or your uncle after one too many eggnogs (to keep the holiday theme going). The bottom is dropping out on the closer market and the Mets stand to benefit from that. As the only big money team shopping in the closer market this season, either K-Rod or Fuentes are all but wrapped up, and getting fitted for bows. Considering K-Rod went from an asking price of $15m for 5 years to $12m for 4 years before anyone other than us approached, and Fuentes’ asking price may soon see a similar drop, it feels like the Mets are out in front of the line waiting from the doors to open on black Friday. Let’s just try real hard not to trample anyone on our way to back up the money truck. Since we are getting such a good deal though why not kick the tires on one or two other holiday goodies? 

            Allow me to digress here for a second. Why is it that the Yankees are planning on going nuts in the free agent market? They didn’t make the playoffs. I guess we must have had a nice October run that I slept through. I don’t want to become the Yankees, but I feel like we are a less flawed team than they are at this point, only needing a couple pieces, and yet we seem more than willing to accept the idea that we just can’t afford what we need.

            Other than bullpen help, which I am confident we will get all we need is one good bat and one good starting pitcher. The bat is a little tougher due to our team not lining up properly with the free agent market. The two free agents who fit our needs offensively, Milton Bradley and Manny Ramirez both come with baggage above the shoulders, and in the case of Bradley you are worried about the coincidence that his best season happens to be the year before free agency. Mark Teixeira, who if you have read my first article you know I really want, would not really solve the problem as he would be replacing Carlos Delgado as opposed to supplementing him, meaning if we got him and traded Delgado we would still need another good bat to lengthen the lineup. The Mets seem to believe that Delgado will reprise his success from the end of the season last year, and whether you believe that or not that is a different article. 

            That leaves starting pitching as the easier fix. Essentially the Mets need someone at least as good as Oliver Perez to keep from regressing as a team. A fifth starter is more replaceable and there are many names and ways to fill that slot, but to guard against regression of Mike Pelfrey and further injury related problems from John Maine you would like a solid number 2 starter to fill the spot. In my opinion there are three number 2 starters available this off season, Derek Lowe, a true number two, and A.J. Burnett and Ben Sheets who would be in the ace category if not for their fragility. We started this off season with the belief that we would get Lowe, but that was before we heard the price tag on him. I agree that 4 years $70m is far too much to pay for a number two starter, but there are a lot of teams that seem to disagree, including our rivals the Phillies and Yankees. Even still the Mets brass and fans seem to be so deterred by the cost that we are considering Jon Garland’s empty 14 wins as an alternative. This reminds me a lot of 2000.

            In 2000 Fred Coupon got his nickname. After a trip to the World Series the Mets were poised to be the team to beat in 2001. There were a bunch of top tier free agents that fit onto a team that already made it to the World Series that season, including Mike Hampton, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Mike Mussina. After getting spurned by Hampton to come back and getting priced out by A-Rod, we quickly made a move…and spent $42m for 4 years of Kevin Appier. The Yankees on the other hand Spent the money to get Mike Mussina for 6 years at only $4m per year more than we got Appier. The Mets would finish around .500 that season, leading to the acquisitions of Mo Vaughn, Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Pedro Astacio and a last place finish in 2002. Instead of paying for what we needed when it was available, the Mets took the cheaper route, leading to a more complete collapse than the banking industry. I fear that Wilpon forgot this and is doomed to repeat it by once again taking a small discount for a large drop off in talent. 

As for the alternatives, Burnett is asking for a similar contract to Lowe, but honestly I wouldn’t consider paying him that much or that many years for fear his arm would fall off. Sheets is intriguing as he would likely accept a shorter deal with more incentives, but you also need to worry about his health. Since the Mets have not been linked to Sheets yet, and seem more willing to give money to Garland than him, I’d have to assume they don’t want that risk (although I agree with Dave in Spain that I’d rather have 20 starts from Sheets than 30 from Garland). So if not Sheets or Burnett, it sounds like in order to not repeat 2000’s mistakes, we need to sign Lowe.

Well there is one other option. If Lowe wants $17.5m a year, and CC wants $23m…I’ll let you finish that thought. But either way, we can’t have Fred Coupon redux. Despite not making the playoffs this past season, the Mets are close to being a World Series team again. With a pitcher like Lowe and a fixed bullpen our offence should be enough to take us into the playoffs this season, and everyone knows how much difference having 2 frontline starters makes in the playoffs.