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November 10, 2008
  
Bargain Bin Shopping
by: Alex Nelson on Nov 10, 2008 1:41 AM | Filed under: Articles

My first thought when browsing down the list of free agents for the 2008-2009 offseason was that it seemed like a weak class. But that’s not really true—there are a number of big names out there, players with lots of talent and a proven track record. Names like Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets, and Francisco Rodriguez. It’s actually one of the stronger classes I can remember.

There are a couple of big problems, though. There are some major questions with almost every free agent out there. The top names are going to carry huge price tags, one and all, but particularly Ramirez, Sabathia, K-Rod, and Teixeira. In fact, due to the high costs for the top talent, the mid-markets will find themselves priced out, creating an increased demand for the second tier. Guys like Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell, Derek Lowe, and Oliver Perez will benefit. On top of that, you have to also wonder about attitude problems (Ramirez, Milton Bradley), arm mileage (Sabathia), fragility (Sheets, A.J. Burnett). Many of your better options are in their mid-30s or older. Quite frankly, the free agent market is a little like playing Jenga—you know where the weaknesses are, but you’re going to have to take a risk sooner or later.

That said, there will be bargains. Some player out there is being undervalued, either for one (or more) of the reasons listed above or for some other doubt about his future performance. What I’m going to do is highlight guys I think might be undervalued and why. Here’s what I’m not going to do: I’m not, for the most part, going to estimate what these guys will earn. To be honest, I haven’t a clue what salaries will look like this season, and I don’t think you ever really have an idea until the first player goes on the open market. Until then, predicting future contract terms is a fool’s errand. I can’t even guarantee that everybody on this list will be a bargain; too many teams these days are thinking alike.

Perhaps the most obvious name for this list is Brad Penny. Penny endured an injury-plagued 2008 where everything imploded. He pitched only 94 2/3 innings, his ERA was 6.27—32% below the league average—and his final record stood at 6-9. His peripherals were dreadful. His homerun rate tripled from last season’s number, and he also saw a decline in strikeouts and rise in walks. And even when things were good, Penny rarely saw great strikeout rates, making him a guy I thought would decline after 2006’s stellar season. In short, I was never very optimistic about Penny’s future.

What makes this offseason different? Two things. First, while I don’t think the strikeout rate will head north of 7.00 again, I do think the walk numbers will improve and the homerun rate will get better. Penny posted the best groundball rate of his career in 2008, albeit it in a limited number of innings, and he’s always shown an ability to prevent the homerun beyond his groundball rate. Second, the Dodgers have already set some parameter for his price by declining his option, which would have only cost them $7.25 million beyond his $2-million buyout. Penny’s likely in the market for a one- or two-year deal with an annual value less than that $7.25 million, which isn’t half bad for a pitcher with Penny’s upside. You just have to pray he misses the injury bug.

A second guy who might be interesting is Randy Wolf. Wolf is nothing special and he’s had plenty of injury difficulties, but I feel relatively safe about him securing the back of the rotation. Wolf had a healthy 2008 and went 12-12 with a 4.30 ERA. The peripherals are all solid—not great, but solid—and he’s got some slight flyball tendencies that may make him a bad fit with certain teams. A lot depends on how CitiField will play.

The real question is interest. If several teams jump on the Randy Wolf bandwagon, it could drive his price up past bargain status. But if interest is mild and the Mets move quickly, they might get him relatively cheaply. According to some, the Mets may already be interested, and I don’t think it’s a bad move.

Among outfielders, I like Milton Bradley and Pat Burrell the most. Over at Beyond the Box Score, Sky Kalkman has Bradley as the second-most valuable free agent hitter, behind only Teixeira and just ahead of Ramirez. While you can’t expect Bradley to be healthy for a full season, he is an extremely dangerous hitter when he’s on the field, featuring solid contact ability, a fantastic batting eye, and mid-range power. And while he’s rarely healthy, he isn’t quite Moises Alou, either. However, due to the injury issues, I have trouble believing he’ll come anywhere near the number Sky comes up with, making him possibly undervalued.

Similarly, Burrell might get shortchanged this offseason, too. Burrell’s been consistently under-appreciated by the Philadelphia fans due to iffy defense and a propensity to strike out, but he is a patient hitter with excellent power. The biggest caveat: as a player with what Bill James describes as “old player skills” he might be due for an early decline. And, to be honest, there’s an excellent chance that decline will occur over his next contract. Take a look at his list of comparables over at Baseball-Reference: Danny Tartabull, Jesse Barfield, Jeff Burroughs, Dean Palmer, Roger Maris, Jack Clark, Darryl Strawberry, Vic Wertz, Frank Howard, and Willie Strargell. Other thank Stargell, not a single guy was very effective into his mid-30s. But you will squeeze some value out of him, and he does have the advantage of being overshadowed by Adam Dunn, a similar player who’s superior. Burrell’s similar to Wolf: see what the initial interest is first before going all out.

As far as the infield goes, outside of Teixieira and Orlando Hudson, there aren’t very many attractive names. Both players are the best available at their positions, and those types of contracts can rarely be called bargains—you almost always wind up paying a premium.

I also never consider a middle reliever a bargain. Too often players are either not as good as envisioned or are signed for two years too long. Instead, I’d like to point out some minor league free agents who might make intriguing signings. While there’s often a reason a minor leaguer hasn’t broken through to the majors, sometimes the guy just hasn’t gotten his chance yet. And there’s no risk in signing the player to a new minor league deal and giving him the opportunity to make the team in spring training.

The first name that jumped out at me was Colter Bean, the former Yankee farmhand. Bean’s already 32 and he’s never had an extended shot in the majors, but he has had excellent strikeout ratios in the minors, and I do believe the righty can help out a major league bullpen in some capacity. The walks are a little troublesome. Still, some smart team will snatch him up and give him a look in March.

Kiko Calero had at one time been an effective member of bullpens in St. Louis and Oakland, but he spent most of 2008 in Triple-A. He’s already 34, and he didn’t pitch great in 2008, but he might be worth a look.

Brandon Medders had been successful in the Diamondbacks’ bullpen in 2005 and 2006, but in general the strikeout rate hasn’t held up through the jump from Triple-A to the majors. The overall peripherals in the minors are still very good, and, like Calero, he’s worth a gamble.

Another guy to look for is former Brewer Justin Lehr. Lehr’s 31, but he’s got excellent control, gets groundballs, and had an excellent 16 games in Louisville in 2008.


10 Responses to “Bargain Bin Shopping”

  1. Comment posted by sheadenizen on November 10, 2008 at 9:34 am (#891971)

    I am definitely in the Milton Bradley camp. Have stated so numerous times already. But unfortunately, Omar, the Wilpons and company worry more about character than winning. Shouldn’t Bradley qualify. he’s quite the character ;-)

    That said, let’s deal with pitching first and then see where we are.

  2. Comment posted by Gabriel Gray on November 10, 2008 at 12:15 pm (#892032)

    He’s not a “bargain basement” as such, since he’s making over 10 mil for the next two seasons, but I’m really starting to warm up to the whole idea of acquiring Javy Vazquez. IMO as a No. 2 innings-eating pitcher he’d have just as much value as a Derek Lowe, except that he’s four years younger, will be several millions cheaper on a per year basis, and will have a contract half as long (Vazquez is signed for two years, while Lowe is likely to want four). Plus, since the White Sox seem to be down on him, he won’t cost us as much in terms of players traded. So let’s say we start by giving the White Sox Heilman…who else should we throw into the trade?

  3. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on November 10, 2008 at 1:15 pm (#892098)

    Dunn is so overrated it makes me wanna cry.

    I’d go for Bradley, though.

  4. Comment posted by Jarhead77 on November 10, 2008 at 1:53 pm (#892128)

    Bradley is exactly what the mets need to put some life into this team. Last year in Texas, he had a family member stay with to keep him in line. Also, he would give much needed protection for Delgado and Wright in the 6th spot in the order. Though he would probably be a better #2 or #3 hitter. Also, Gabe Kapler for the bench would be a good pickup. I like your thoughts about Medders and Lehr. They should also look at Juan Rincon, he’s 30 yrs old. He had a bad 2008, but he had pretty good success with the Twins before the last 2 seasons, and his price would not be that high. Also Chad Cordero as setup guy. I think he could excel in that role, plus if there was an injury to the new closer mets fans would be able to live with Cordero b/c of the closing experience.

  5. Comment posted by Eli on November 10, 2008 at 3:09 pm (#892170)

    What’s the story with Moises Alou? I could easily have missed news on him as I have been rarely looking into baseball stories this offseason, but I haven’t heard anything about him announcing retirement. No, I don’t think the Mets should be interested, but I would think that some AL team might take a chance on him as DH, particularly because he won’t be able to demand much. They need to graft his upper body onto some healthy legs.

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  7. Comment posted by Simons on November 11, 2008 at 1:12 am (#892401)

    Actually, Moises passed away earlier this month. The cause of death was “Snapping in two.”

    /stolen

  8. Comment posted by Milo on November 11, 2008 at 1:25 am (#892404)

    Other interesting names to me include Vinnie Chulk, Doug Waechter, Dennis Tankersley, Bobby Keppel, Brad Hennesey, Chris Bootcheck and Jason Isringhausen (He couldn’t be had for a minor league deal, but he’d be relatively cheap and could do well in a set-up or 7th inning role).

  9. Comment posted by Wally Dykstra on November 11, 2008 at 4:32 pm (#892779)

    I wouldn’t mind Bradley just to mix things up in the clubhouse. They need a guy with some fire, even if he is a nutjob.

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  11. Comment posted by Alex Nelson on November 11, 2008 at 5:42 pm (#892799)

    Other interesting names to me include Vinnie Chulk, Doug Waechter, Dennis Tankersley, Bobby Keppel, Brad Hennesey, Chris Bootcheck and Jason Isringhausen

    Not a real big fan of too many of those names. Yeah those guys have had big-league experience but most got a chance and never had particularly good minor league numbers to begin with. None of them are capable of getting a strikeout. Izzy’s probably the most intriguing to me.

  12. Comment posted by MightyJoeOrsulak on November 14, 2008 at 2:36 am (#894376)

    Yup

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