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October 23, 2008
State of the Bullpen, Part 3
Again, getting straight to it: these are the guys that aren’t big names, but players who could conceivably be answers in the Mets pen: The Surest Bets Juan Cruz IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 51.0 34 5 2.61 71 31 Career 515.0 446 53 4.00 535 266 Splits: Lefties + .100 career, (.771-.671), Righties + .217 last year (.759-.542) Cruz is by far the livest arm of this bunch, and when you consider his relative cost in comparison to Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes, probably the reliever that the Mets should be targeting. He reminds me a lot of Billy Wagner in that he lives and dies on the cheese, and that means he is susceptible to the occasional long ball (he’s allowed 19 over the past three years). After being converted back to relief after the Diamondbacks dabbled with him as a starter in 2006, Cruz limited batters to a .153 average. Since 2007, he has struck out a little over 1.25 batters an inning. The only thing that worries me about him is his splits; he had been letting lefties hit him pretty well in 2007 (.865 OPS) and 2006 (.778 OPS). That reversed last year, oddly, but that could also just be statistical noise as Cruz missed some of the year with a strained oblique and didn’t get a whole season’s worth of innings. Damaso Marte IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 65.0 52 5 4.02 71 26 Career 472.0 380 43 3.29 508 212 Splits: Righties +.129 career (.712-.583), Lefties + .109 last year (.679-.570) The Yankees hold an option on Marte, who some blamed for the collapse of their season after he came over and had a 5.40 ERA over 18 1/3 innings despite respectable peripherals. The line of thought seems to be about 50/50 on whether they’ll pick it up, as Hank Steinbrenner is apparently priming for a big splash; every bit of payroll they can spare to go after CC Sabathia and Mark Teixiera may be shed. Marte has been one of the best and most consistent middle relievers in baseball over the last decade—he keeps the ball in the park quite well, he’s never allowed more hits than innings pitched in the 2000s, and his strikeout rate has been consistently around one an inning. Let the writers talk about New York pressure all they want; I’ll take a bullpen of six Marte’s. The only problem with pursuing him is how he might be perceived: he is a lefty, and if you use him as a specialist, it will be a complete waste of money. This doesn’t bother me because Jerry Manuel, and Willie Randolph before him, were so consistent in using Pedro Feliciano against right—oh wait, no, they sucked at that and shoehorned him into a one-out guy. Well then. Will Ohman IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 58.2 51 3 3.68 53 22 Career 218.2 194 20 4.16 219 106 Splits: Righties +.153 career (.756-.603), +.129 last year (.700-.571) Speaking of Feliciano, if you removed 2008 from his career record, he’d look a lot like Will Ohman: a lefty reliever who happens to be effective against either righties or lefties. Like Marte, he also is pretty adept at keeping the ball in the yard. With the Braves apparently focused on adding a big starter, it might be simple to snag Ohman out from under their noses. The big question, once again, is if it’s worth spending a lot of money on someone that our manager will use as a one-out guy. Geriatric Division Darren Oliver IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 72.0 67 5 2.88 48 16 Career 1624.1 1786 195 4.84 993 642 Splits: Lefties + 0.006 career (.804-.798), Righties +.049 last year (.702-.653) There are a ton of pluses about pursuing Oliver: he’s a link to the 2006 team, he’s completely turned his career around the past three years, and he’s old enough to not ask for a long contract. His splits are probably the best of any of the lefties mentioned here. He’s even got enough in the tank to go two innings if you need him to. Again, it comes down to whether the manager is able to see him as more than a LOOGY, but Oliver is probably my favorite risk/reward bet of anyone in this class for the bullpen. Rudy Seanez IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 43.1 38 2 3.53 30 25 Career 566.0 515 58 4.10 574 288 Splits: Lefties +0.072 career, (.743-.671) +0.071 last year (.718-.647) Seanez is consistently inconsistent. He gave up two homers last year, ten the year before. He gets injured so often that it becomes anyone’s guess how many innings he’ll pitch. His strikeout and walk rates fluctuate all over the place. The only given is that at the end of the year, he’ll probably have a decent ERA. The biggest benefit from signing Seanez is that it’ll probably only be a one-year deal. Arthur Rhodes IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 35.1 28 0 2.04 40 16 Career 1046.2 924 111 4.23 1033 467 Splits: Righties + .121 career, (.735-.614) +.255 last year (.708-.453) Rhodes made a successful comeback from Tommy John surgery last year, dominating for the Mariners and Marlins in short innings, mostly as a lefty specialist. Rhodes had been a very stellar reliever for a long time, and it’s not inconceivable to think that with a year of rest and a fixed ligament, he could come back and resume throwing up zeros. The question is in stretching out his arm to see if he can hold up for 70 innings again. If he can, he’s a bet to be as good a bargain as anyone in this free agent class. Outside The Box Division Mark Hendrickson IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 133.2 148 17 5.45 81 48 Career 977.2 1133 119 5.07 545 286 Splits: Righties + .136 career, (.821-.685), +.093 last year (.811-.718) Okay, you’re dumbfounded right now. This guy has been awful for years, and it’s a wonder he was able to catch on with the Marlins last year. Right, right. Now, take a look at these numbers: IP H HR ERA K BB 2008 103.1 90 7 3.39 84 29 Those are Hendrickson’s numbers as a reliever. The landscape is littered with starters who either bombed or were converted into relievers before getting a real chance as in the rotation: a solid majority of these became good relievers: Trevor Hoffman, Robb Nen, Jon Papelbon, Octavio Dotel, Joe Nathan. Hendrickson has proven himself a liability as a starter, but as a reliever there could definitely be something there. And if all it costs at this point is a non-roster invite to find out, why not? Guys That Seem To Get A Lot Of Play That I Don’t Like For Whatever Reason Jeremy Affeldt: Allowed one less homer than Aaron Heilman last year. I think he’s overrated in comparison to what he’ll cost. Brian Shouse, Dennys Reyes: Purely situational left-handers by the splits. David Weathers: Bad memories, relying purely on junk. Bad against lefties last year. Russ Springer: Actually, I don’t mind him. But I think it’s his preference to pitch in the Midwest, and specifically St. Louis, so I didn’t include him. What I Think Will Happen I distrust the Mets to get rid of either Aaron Heilman or Duaner Sanchez. The Minaya administration has been terrible at attacking it’s problems pre-emptively (Securing good bench bats, starts being made by Brian Lawrence, Willie Randolph and later Jerry Manuel being rewarded for no reason), so I think it’s reasonable to think that Heilman will be back in a reduced role instead of “selling low”. Along with these two, I think you’ll see Joe Smith and Brian Stokes back. That is a little over half of the pen. I think the team will choose one of Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis and deal the other. The next move will be to sign either K-Rod, Fuentes, or Kerry Wood, as well as a Cruz or Ron Mahay-type. I don’t necessarily think this is the best plan of attack, but I think, from the rumors we’ve all heard, it’s the most likely of all outcomes. 19 Responses to “State of the Bullpen, Part 3”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Well written, Chris. You bring up interesting scenarios, good job.
The Mets will not pursue Juan Cruz as a closer. They want a closer with a proven record as such. If they do go after him, it’ll be as a 7th/8th inning guy. I think it’ll come down to K-Rod or Fuentes as the closer next year - which one depends upon the Mets landing Manny or not.
I agree either Show or Feliciano will be gone - my money is on Show getting the boot. Wood will stay with the Cubs and I want no part of him, his health is too risky. I’d love to see Darren Oliver back and I disagree that Manuel would use him strictly as a loogy. If anything, Jerry has shown the willingness (at time) to toss the book on lefty-righty match ups. I think the Mets will hope/pray that he can find his fastball and give Duaner another shot. He wasn’t 100% last year (physically or mentally). Heilman (packaged with Show?) will be the centerpiece of a trade, perhaps for a righty bat if the Mets pass on Manny.
In the end, I think Minaya will pick up at least one of two relievers that none of us are even mentioning or thinking about right now.
Good article Chris — one of these two will be gone. I think the Mets finally give up on Heilman. It would be stupid to punt on Sanchez because this was his first season after missing two due to injury. His upside is too good.
I think the Mets will have more luck trading Feliciano than Show b/c of salary. I am totally happy with Show staying in the pen as a LOOGY.
The Nats are almost certainly going to tender Chad Cordero, and I think it’s a known fact that Omar has a soft spot for players from his former organization, and doubly so in Cordero’s case since he was drafted on Omar’s watch. Wouldn’t mind taking a non-roster flier on him, if it came to that.
NON-tender, he meant to type.
i don’t know how much further aaron’s bullpen role could be reduced. heilman should either be traded or given a starter’s role. he would not have to be “sold low”. aaron has always had good stuff; he suffers from command & confidence issues. but, still. i believe many teams would be interested in acquiring his services…
yea but….
he pitched in a bandbox.
home: 7 HRs in 42+ IP
Away: 2 HRs in 35+ IP
Darren Oliver would be nice, but i’m not giving up a 1st Round PIck for him (he is a type A)
that’s insanity
Cordero is really interesting if healthy, good call Gabriel. However, he’s coming off a labrum tear, which from what I understand is much worse than TJ surgery. I dunno, it feels like shades of Matt Wise. Maybe Omar will do it but I hope it’s with the understanding that he needs some rehab time in Buffalo.
i think Bradon Lyon is a guy that should be looked at as well
Or Brandon, either or…..
I’m with you, I’d cut bait on Heilman even if it was selling low. But the Mets are so passive about this stuff that I think there is no chance of it happening. I think someone has to be held accountable and sent away. It sends a bad message to the rest of the team that we are complacent about this.
Well he also gave up 13 HR’s in 97 IP in 2006. That’s 2 of the last 3 years. I’m not saying he couldn’t be okay, he just wouldn’t make my top seven here and I think he’s going to get more than he’s worth.
Remember, the Mets are already probably going to give up their first rounder on K-Rod or Fuentes anyway.
I considered Lyon but I think he’s a bit too hittable. I think over his career he’s proven that he’s nothing special thus far. If he hadn’t ever been a closer I don’t think he’d even be brought up.
That Buffalo part must have felt weird to write, because it felt weird to read! I’m still adjusting…
i agree about the mets’ passivity; especially when it comes to aaron. he has been allowed to languish in the bullpen where he is not doing the team any good. sometimes, change is good for its own sake. how about this trade (for trades’ sake:)
aaron heilman for brian “april love” bannister?
But also remember a team is limited in how many Type A FAs it can sign.
I think it would be silly to limit ourselves to sign Oliver — as much as I do like him
Everybody sing!!! ¨It´s The Circle of Life…¨ or how about Michael Jackson´s ¨I Want You Back!¨…
LMAO
Sorry, speaking for all the ignoramuses out there— can you explain the splits? I´m drawing a blank… +.131 (.724-.59x)… what does that mean exactly?
Thanks from dummyland…
Dave
it means that lefties (or righties) hit .131 OPS pts better than the opposite side.
in that example: +.131 is the differential…then .724 is OPS vs lefties say, and the .59x is OPS vs righties. subtract them out to get the differential (1st number).
It basically a look to see if the pitcher can get both sides of the plate out, something we be lacking
Well I had to think about it for a minute, but we already went through this with New Orleans, haha.
Hmm. Not exactly what I was thinking but that’s not a deal I think the Royals would poo poo immediately.
Thanks Dep! I was pretty sure it was something like that, but the specifics escaped me…