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October 16, 2008
The Core
After experiencing the second tragic collapse in a row, many fellow Mets fans began thinking outside the box. Of course, the box was a sanity box, and this led to many fans calling for the unclutch Wright, the over-enthused Reyes, or the really-good-but-never-lives-up-to-crazy-standards Beltran. I agree with these fans that this team has problems that need to be addressed, but this does not mean we need to get rid of the solutions to our problem. Let’s look at what we have going for us. We have an incredibly talented, healthy, and young left side of the infield. We have a centerfielder who is remarkably consistent with great power and impeccable baserunning skills. We have a kid just called up who plays some outfield and some infield and is just a wonder from the left side of the plate. We have a first baseman whose contract will probably be picked up and is coming off a great season. We have a starting pitcher who finally found himself last year, and we have the best pitcher in baseball manning our staff. I’d say that that’s a good way to start a team. So where are we lacking? We clearly need to get better in terms of corner outfielders, catchers, second basemen, the end of the rotation, and the bullpen, which is by far our biggest problem. None of these issues has to do with Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, or David Wright. In fact, it was these guys who carried the team the entire season. It was Reyes and Wright who single-handedly came back against K-Rod for Jerry Manuel’s first win. It was Beltran who provided all the offense the Mets could muster in their final game of 2008 and at Shea Stadium. It was Jose Reyes who led off games with a bang, giving the Mets an incredible first inning run differential. It was David Wright who was great in the first half of the season when the team seemed to be heading in the wrong direction. Are we really going to let Delgado completely off the hook for sucking for half of a season? So Wright couldn’t get hit a flyball against the Cubs. So Jose Reyes was awful in the last game of the season. So Beltran got caught looking against Wainwright in 2006. Who cares? Did you forget it was Wright’s bases loaded walk in the first inning of that Cubs game that scored a run and set up Delgado’s grand slam? Did you forget that it was Reyes who stole 56 bases and slugged .475 out of the leadoff spot? And did you forget it was Beltran who hit 41 homers in 2006? Maybe the biggest problem is the slack we cut the real problem: the marginal players. “Oh, that Brian Schneider had such a good year. Oh, Ryan Church was hurt and was good in the beginning. Oh, Luis Ayala started off well. Oh, Pedro Martinez will come around, he always does.” Mets fans, what a disservice it is to guys like Wright, Reyes, and Beltran who do everything they can to make you happy (aka help the team win), yet you rip them apart at every chance you get, while guys that continuously suck are given numerous excuses. We should applaud Wright, Reyes, and Beltran for their fantastic seasons, not whine that they should have done more. Because remember, you don’t know what you have until it’s gone. 14 Responses to “The Core” |
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can you please call mike fatcesa and tell him this.
Wright could wind up with 175 RBIs in 2009 and a line of .380/.500/.700 with runners in scoring position, and a line of .400/.550/.800 in September, and hit the world’s first 7 run home run to win a game in which they were down by 6 in the 9th inning and go 10/10 with 13 walks in the crucial final game, including the game tying HR in the 9th and the game winning HR in the 11th of the final game in the NLCS and single-handedly demand that Selig expand the World Series to a best of nine after the Mets lose the first four and drive in 70 runs over the next five games to win them all, and Fat Man would still call him unclutch, or find some other way to trash him, or say that it’s because the new 2nd baseman David Eckstine “taught him how to win” or some other spectacular heap of rapturous crap.
That’s what Fat Man does. He is an idiot. I don’t listen to him. I value my brain cells too much.
What gets to me is when “Met fans” like Benigno–whom I don’t listen to either except perhaps by accident or when I act upon a certain otherwise deeply buried flash of self-loathing–jump on the same “no grit on the Mets” bandwagon. Clowns like Benigno forget that Wright had as clutch a regular season as you can have in ‘06, as great a September as you can have in ‘07, and that the dude is 25 freaking years old and you really can’t put a label on him yet, and turn against the faces of the franchise, the biggest reasons why we are not losing 90 games a year in 2002, the guys who led the Mets out of the gutter and at least into the wilderness, if not yet to the promised land. (Golden Calf? Joe would have worshiped a lump of scrap-metal cowdung on the first travail.) What kind of an a****le abandons their best player at the first sign of adversity?
If clowns like him end up running Wright and Reyes out of town, I’ll either switch allegiances (Go Rays!) or (more likely) find better ways to waste my time than watching baseball games. If this happens, the only interest I’ll have in the Mets will be my hope that guys like Benigno never see the Mets or any of their teams win again in their lifetimes.
H.L. Mencken said: “Democracy is the belief that the people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard”. Same goes for the Mets and their “fans”.
(Obviously, this diatribe only applies to ass-clowns of Binignoan proportions.)
I’d largely agree. I’d be really disappointed if the Mets traded away Reyes or Wright - they are just great and can get better. I am not very enthusiastic about Beltran but the stats say I am wrong. I’m not enthusiastic about picking up Delgado but with all the other holes the Mets have (see below), I suppose they need to retain Delgado. If the Mets are doing poorly by late July, I wouldn’t mind seeing Delgado and Beltran traded for lots of excellent prospects. But it won’t happen.
Hmmm, I’d agree with you, and though if the Mets did nothing to change their roster, some players would shine (maybe Church, maybe Murphy), but looking at all the potential holes, I hope Wilpon has lots and lots of money he wants to spend and recognize that Mets will be worse a few years down the road because Mets will be giving up lots of draft choices for these free agents.
FIXED!
your a better man than me Pat. Writing a substantive article about our metsies this close to late September IMO would be like doing shots of Jameson after waking up from a monster hangover. I applaud your buoyant elasticity.
@ extrmegamesx8: Francesa wouldn’t let Pat get a word in and then proceed to contradict himself and say he didn’t say the Mets should trade Wright or Reyes.
Reality check time…
The Mets won 88 games in 2007
The Mets won 89 games in 2008
This team DOES NOT need to be torn apart by dealing Wright, Reyes, Beltran, or Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, and I would even include Ollie Perez as well, unless he asks for some unreasonable new contract.
They are the young productive parts of the team, the reason the team won 89 games last season.
They simply need to replace the unproductive parts of the team…ie bullpen, LF, & 2B.
The problem isn’t Wright, Reyes or Beltran. The problem is Omar Minaya. Look at what he’s done:
- Increased the payroll by 40% to the second biggest in MLB
- Created a team that averages a high 80s win total (not near enough to the 95 win mark needed to guarantee the playoffs)
- Under-invested in the minor league system so that it is now ranked in the bottom third (by Baseball America)
His greatest flaw in achieving these results were:
- Taking the very good 2006 bullpen - and making one bad trade and signing after another
- Signing too many older (past prime) veterans while not spending enough time or money re-stocking the team/minors with younger players
Omar has had his moments:
- Getting good young starting pitchers in trades (Maine, Perez)
- Acquiring younger players approaching the peak of their careers (Beltran, Santana)
But his overall track record has led to a team that is only somewhat better than average and not a championship team. If you look at the Red Sox - a good example of a well run large market team - they spend about the same money on salaries, but generally make smarter decisions and they draft better (breaking slot when they need too and using a great deal of analysis/scouting to make wiser picks). So they end up with a great veteran/young player balance with a deep farm system. They are a 95 win team with very good minor league talent behind them.
What we should all be really upset about is that Omar just got a four year contract extension. He had one year left on his current contract - and it would have been great to hold his feet to the fire to see if he could make better decisions in shoring up the team’s deficiencies. And he has a tall order in front of him (about $30mm/year in available salary room to get 2 good starting pitchers, 2 top end relievers and one very good corner OF - compromises will have to be made).
We’re all upset with the outcome of the last two years - but let’s vent our frustration in the right direction at Omar Minaya, not Wright, Reyes or Beltran.
Great post, since it really would be batsh*t crazy to trade away any of these three.
@ Eli and any other met fan that doesn’t think Beltran is valuable. For the past 3 years he’s been one of the best CFs in the league. At Baseball Prospectus, he was the 2nd best CF this year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=313152
Follow that up with being the 5th best CF in the league in 2007, and the 2nd best CF during his awesome 2006 season. And by the way, Sizemore is a stud, so how about no whining that he’s only the 2nd best.
If someone can find some better fielding stats/metrics, I’d appreciate it. All I could find is Zone Rating and Range Factor at ESPN.com. Even by these stats though, he looks pretty good.
Beltran:
Year ZR RF
2006 2.81 .897
2007 2.87 .908
2008 2.72 .899
Career 2.80 .904
Best: 3.05(2004) .927(2003)
Torii Hunter:
2008 2.67 .881
Career 2.80 .895
Best: 3.29(2001) .904(2001)
Andruw Jones:
2007 2.67 .863 (last full season)
Career 2.76 .875
Best: 3.15(1999) .922(1998)
So compared to Hunter and Jones, two CFs no one would argue are/were great fielding CFs, Beltran stacks up pretty well. Better career numbers, better current numbers, and even at their peaks, Beltran had more range (by RF) with a few more errors that bring his ZR down.
This article was on Metsblog a few weeks ago, but I think it’s worth a read. Glad to see someone else appreciate Beltran for how great of a player he is, not how great people believe he should be.
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/09/11/beltran/
Good post davidg, but I disagree that Omar is a problem. I will agree that he should have made more moves for the team last season, but his moves IMHO for the most part have been pretty good.
First off, can we agree that there isn’t a MLB GM out there who hasn’t made a bad deal? Even your example of Theo Epstein would prolly reverse his signing of Julio Lugo, and he hasn’t been able to give away Coco Crisp as well, just to name a few of his less stellar moves. But the good GMs make more good moves than they do bad ones. And while OM has made a few bad decisions, his good moves have more than made up for it.
While you acknowledged OM acquiring Santana, that trade was pure brilliance. NOBODY thought the Mets could acquire Johan with the package they offered the Twins at the time. A lot of so called know it all Met fans/supporters were wanting the Mets to give the Twins…Wright, Reyes, F-Mart, Pelfrey, you name it. But it was your problem GM Omar Minaya who held firm and ended up not only landing Santana, but he landed him for the prospects he was willing to give up. Quite a pleasant change from many of his predecessors.
And how ’bout the Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider trade? Met fans (including myself) was ready to put the noose around Omar’s neck after that deal. Don’t see too many fans complaining about it now.
Kris Benson for John Maine/Jorge Julio?
Steal of a deal.
Xavier Nady for Ollie Perez/Roberto Hernandez
Good deal.
And one area he definitely doesn’t get enough credit for is the trades he doesn’t make. He didn’t deal Pelfrey. He didn’t deal F-Mart. Daniel Murphy is looking like a real keeper as well.
Super T is really giving our boy Omar far too much credit.
I’ll just discuss the Milledge/Flores/Schneider/Church situation, which Mr. T lends dubious acclamation.
Omar is often given grief over the Lastings Milledge trade and the irresponsible handling of Jesus Flores, but not taken to task on how these two moves were related. We had a hole at the catcher slot because Omar gave away 6 cost-controlled years of Jesus Flores. For some reason he was not thinking about what would happen upon the departure of the aging and overrated ‘roidhead Paul LoDuca. Omar then traded Milledge for a right fielder in Church whom Milledge had outperformed in the minors at every comparable stage of development, partly to heal this self-inflicted wound at catcher with Brian Schneider. But Schneider’s gone after next year, when he will be 33 and seeking a multi-year contract that will run through his decline, which, as we have seen with Piazza and LoDuca, is steep for catchers. Thus, in 2010, Omar will be right back to where he started in ‘08, with the alternatives of resigning an older catcher who carries risk, or madly searching for a replacement, except that this time we will have a 30 year old Church in right instead of a 24–yes, freakin’ 24 year old Milledge, who will probably be outperforming him by the time (he was already outperforming Church in the second half of 2008), and a freakin’ 24 year old Jesus Flores. These two players might not necessarily be studs at their positions, but they would have been good enough to give the Mets flexibility, security, and breathing room with payroll that they could use at other positions.
One of Omar’s several glaring weaknesses is that he tends to think on a year-to-year basis and not of the long-term implications of what he does. This fiasco is the quintessential example of the folly of this.
I think that the jury’s still out on Omar, and that its decision will hinge upon what becomes of Pelfrey, F=Mart!, Niese, Parnell, Kunz, and Daniel Murphy over the next two seasons (as well as others like Dylan Gee). Omar has so far been working on inherited talent, some of which he botched, and free agents. He has now been here long enough so that his drafts can be evaluated. If he has success there, it will tip the scales in his favor. If not, he’ll be justly considered a failure.
Mighty Joe,
I was as perplexed as you as to why the Mets let Jesus Flores go. Definitely, wasn’t one of Omar’s better moves. But, just as I stated in my above post, I still feel that OM’s good moves have outweighed his bad ones. Let us also not forget that Omar was the one who convinced the at the time “coupon” Wilpons to open up their wallet and sign one Pedro Martinez, which also ended up bringing in Carlos Beltran as well. We definitely also have to look at where the team came from when evaluating him. OM is MILES ahead of his predecessors (Al Harazin, Joe Macillvaine, Steve Phillips, and Jim Duquette). And frankly, I would say he is better than alot of other current GMs today Ned Colletti (Andruw Jones & Juan Pierre) anyone? He factors in on base percentage and patience at the plate when he evualates offensive players which is more than can be said for many other current GMs which is pretty amazing in todays times.
(I think we’re seeing eye to eye regarding Milledge though!)
Phillips was a fool with his signings, but Wright, Reyes, Heilman, and Milledge were his pickups, and you have to give him credit for that. Duquette on the other hand, negotiated what was probably the worst trade in the history of the franchise–which is saying a lot in the case of the Mets–with no redeeming accomplishment to mitigate it. I don’t want God to kill Duquette; I just want Him to get Duquette to GM for the Yankees.
Omar’s good with OBP
He’s skeptical of the “Grits McHeartandsoul” types. He didn’t sign Eckstein and he didn’t resign LoDuca.
His handling of prospects is inconsistent, but not uniformly bad. Flores and Milledge were terrible moves, but Maine and Santana were outright Coups, so I’d say that’s a wash. (Santana added salary, but Maine subtracted it. Also, I strongly suspect that there was pressure from the Wilpons regarding Milledge, so I can’t kill him too much for that.)
He’s negotiated inscrutably bad contracts, but none that is really debilitating like Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, Garciaparra, Kent, and Lord knows what else. His bad deals, aside from Martinez, have been relatively minor. He did the right thing in locking up Wright and Reyes, at the going lock up rates for players.
Yes, he’s got some things going for him. He just isn’t good with long term planning and hasn’t been able to fortify rosters.
His legacy will hinge upon how his drafts turn out. IMO, that will be the clincher.