premium blogad:
blogads:
advertisement:
sitemeter:
|
|
|
October 7, 2008
State of the Bullpen, Part 1
When the Mets were playing their final game of the 2008 season, I was in Chicago with friends and away from a television. I was following the game on my phone as closely as I could, but even when the Mets stormed back to make it 2-2, I knew not to get my hopes up. As my screen refreshed to show our new score, 3-2, I said one word: “Schoeneweis.” I’m not one of those writers who pretends to speak for a fanbase, but if I may self-indulge a little, I’ll say that these last two years have done a lot for me as far as discovering other things to care about. Whether it’s the national media, baseball-knowledgeable friends, or the random passerby, the narrative to paint us as chokers has driven me much further into finding new things to be happy about. I guess that’s one good thing I can say about the 2008 Mets, which is one more good thing I could say about them this September. I don’t know much about psychological studies when measured through the media, but the Mets seemed determined to prove every pundit right this year about the choking. Not only did they finish 23rd in MLB in reliever ERA, but they coupled that with a .741 OPS with runners in scoring position, a drop of 20 points from regular performance. This is a team that needs to make some drastic disassociation from the past, and both the easiest problem to fix and the part of the team that makes the most sense to revamp happen to match up perfectly: those seven guys that pitch mostly after the fifth inning that combined to blow 29 saves this year. The problem one runs into with this is that a) most of the Mets relievers actually have somewhat decent track records and could probably be expected to get a bit better next year anyway and b) for the most part, spending a ton of money on the bullpen is a bit wasteful. Teams like the Marlins and Devil Rays have cobbled together adequate enough bullpens without even spending top money on a closer. I theorized back in August that the Mets needed to get less situational, but with the loss of Billy Wagner, the Mets are essentially looking at a scenario where they need to acquire, find, or sign a completely new trio of top relievers. Heilman never got it back completely, Duaner was barely even used in September, and the only pitcher the Mets called up that even looked remotely competent in the final month was Brian Stokes. The funny thing is, statistically, the Mets bullpen doesn’t even look that terrible. Certainly not as terrible as you’d think they would be. They yielded a .736 OPS against, which was certainly not good (it ranked 20th in MLB) but was far closer to 10th (.716, Nationals) than last (.786, Tigers). Opposing batters hit .258, which was also good for 20th, but the Dodgers were in fourth at .241 and the Indians were in last at .280. They didn’t allow the most homers, the most doubles, or anything close to that. In fact, the only place where the Mets were really far to the extreme in were hit batsmen (28, good for third-worst) and intentional walks (37, good for fifth). The only thing the latter points to is how hard our pair of managers were working to try to get their situational relievers into good situations, and the hit batters thing is almost entirely a function of Joe Smith and Aaron Heilman, who have combined for 13 and 12 between the two of them the last two years. Who should be back? I think that Stokes is a pretty big lock to be with the team in some capacity next season, and I believe Joe Smith is a very capable and affordable righty specialist. Beyond that, the Mets need to determine a few things with the rest of the relievers: they need to decide whether to keep Feliciano or Schoeneweis as the lefty specialist, and they additionally need to decide whether or not Heilman and Sanchez are going to be able to rebound into reliable mid-inning types. To me, the former is a very close decision: Schoeneweis holds lefties to a .224/.299/.295 line over his career, .178/.243/.277 in 2008. Feliciano is a career .214/.291/.285, .210/.280/.295 last year. Schoeneweis is due to make $3.6 million, and Feliciano made $1.2 million and is a second-year arbitration-eligible case. The money and the job are very similar. However, while Feliciano was destroyed by right-handers in 2008, he has been very reliable against them in the past, and despite dragging a 1.014 OPS against them this season onto his career line, still limits them to a .780 career OPS. Scott Schoeneweis has allowed right-handers an .835 OPS over his career. I would keep Feliciano and try to flip Schoenweis, or dump them both and try and acquire someone different completely if the Mets think Felicano’s numbers against right-handers won’t rebound and they can find someone cheaper with that potential. The answers on Sanchez and Heilman are much tougher. The weird thing about Sanchez is that, outside of August, he was actually a very capable reliever. At some point I’m sure the wear and tear of coming straight back from surgery into being a key cog in the pen caught up to him, but the decreased velocity he showed leaves me completely uncertain on his future. Consider that in the first half of 2008, Sanchez allowed a .205/.288/.311 line to all hitters. The Mets are against a rock and a hard place with Sanchez. If he gets his velocity back, they’d be foolish to let him go—he’s probably the most accomplished reliever in the bullpen at this point and he’d be a huge boost if he came back completely healthy. His year probably doesn’t merit a huge arbitration boost, certainly; he’d probably make under $2.5 million. On the other hand, how much trust can the Mets have? Heilman supposedly pitched through an injury as well, and, for his sake, I hope so. Because that was one of the worst years I’ve ever seen a supposedly good reliever have. His walks and control were way down, and his homers allowed continued to climb. Left-handers had a .991 OPS against him. He might make more than any of the rest of the members of the current Mets pen. And yet, he still has a very stellar track record over the last three years, and, if you assume this was an injury problem and that they might pay him a little under $3 million, it still makes sense to see if he can bounce back rather than go to free agency. With both of these guys, health is one of the concerns. The other concern is simply that replacing the entire bullpen via big name free agents is going to put a big damper on any other plans to improve the team this offseason. Given both of these considerations, I can see the case for keeping one of Heilman or Sanchez, but not both. Perhaps the Mets would be best off seeing which of them would merit a better trade package, keeping the other one. Either way, I don’t think standing pat is a viable option. The Mets need wholesale change in the bullpen. There needs to be at least three new faces in the main corps next year, be they expensive free agents, a commitment to making sure they don’t lose the next Heath Bell (Carlos Muniz?) or trade targets. Next week: people I’d target. 10 Responses to “State of the Bullpen, Part 1”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
|
I should point out, before anyone says anything, that I didn’t forget Luis Ayala. I just don’t think he, yano, matters.
I would not say that Ayala does not matter. As opposed to Heilman, at least he has the guts to challenge hitters. I’d much rather see him in the pen than the gutless Heilman.
No problem with Smith and Stokes returning. Sanchez deserves a look in the spring. Heilman back as a starter only, if not move him. He can’t return in the pen as he has been a big part of the problem the last 2 years. I would bring back feliciano over Show, but have no problem if neither returns and we go a different route.
Ayala is a FA, so he would need to be signed unlike the others mentioned — we control them.
I think Sanchez is a no brainer — he missed two straight seasons. Then he pitched very well for a little over half a season.
I believe he simply wore down and hit a dead arm period. He should return b/c his upside is too damn high to throw away cheap. THey just can’t count on him as a key guy until we know better.
I think what happens with Heilman will show whether or not he was legitimately injured. I could see Jerry saying he was injured in an attempt to relieve some pressure on him at home. If the Mets dump him, I will believe injury talk was BS. If they keep him, then the FO believes he was hurt and will bounce back.
Duaner is like one of the only tough dudes we have in the lolpen as well. I think you have to bring him back for at least another look in spring training.
And while the bullpen’s ERA and WHIP only seem slightly below average, when you look at any stat that adjusts for leverage, this bullpen immediately plunges to the bottom of baseball, particularly their second-half performance, which was just atrocious ad below replacement level.
I’d like to see Sanchez another year. It was his first year back from some bad injuries, so a big improvement is possible. You won’t get much in trade for him. Injury and his prior track record aside, I don’t like Heilman’s attitude. The guy visibly sulks when things get tough and it clearly affects his performance. When he comes in and the first guy walks or somebody commits an error, you can see the “here we go again” look in his face. The guy expects to fail and that’s not somebody you want pitching high leverage innings. I’d be willing to give him a shot as a starter if he has a 3rd pitch, but otherwise I’d probably try and bring him to spring training, hope he puts up some decent numbers and then trade him.
All the Heilman haters are imagining all the “gutless”, “visibly sulks” and other metal issues. The guy was terrible in ‘08, just say he was awful, all this armchair (or computer-desk-chair) psychiatry is BS, imo.
Love,
The Chairman of the Aaron Defense Committee of One™
This should be the depth chart next year for the Mets
C Brian Scheider,
Ramon castro
1B Carlos Delgado
2B B. Jerry Hairston Jr. can play everywhere except P,C hit in 81 games (limited by depth chart) with a .326 avg with 6 HR and 15 SB for CIn in 08 can also play (see LF D. below)
C.Ray Durham,
D.Jose Valentin (if he can still play)
(for insurance if A.Daniel Murphy can’t play 2nd base).
(Go after Brian Roberts or Placido Polanco or Mark Derosa all free agents in 2010)
3B David Wright
SS Jose Reyes
RF Ryan Church
CF Carlos Beltran
LF A. Juan Rivera (why not? he hit 12 HR in only 96 at bats last year hit .310 with 23 in 2006 did not play that much because of the LAA deep outfield (check the depth chart)) should be a bargain with power
B. Fernando Tatis (if price is right)
C. Gabe Kapler hit .301 with 8 HR in 96 games play (filled in for mike Cameron when he was on suspension.) and played when there was a spot in the OF or as Dh? (when playing Al teams) for Mil in 08
D. Jerry Hairston Jr. can play everywhere except P,C hit in 81 games (limited by depth chart) with a .326 avg with 6 HR and 15 SB for Cin in 08
till E.Fernado Martinez is ready.
SP
1. Johan (the man) Santana
2. John Maine
3.Mike Pelfry
4. A. Ryan Dempster can also close 17 and 6 with the cubs in 08, 28 sv in 07 overlooked much cheaper than Sabathia
B. Ben Sheets 13 and 9 in 08
C. Oliver Perez (dought it but you never know?)
5.A.Sidney Ponson showed what he could do with the Yankees 8 and 5 between tex and nyy
B. Jon Garland 14 and 8 for LAA
C.Freedy Garcia (cheap with a good overall record 05 last full season 17 and 9. And pitched great for the Tigers down the strech)
D. Branden Looper is much better as a starter then as a closer
E.Carl Pavano take a chance on a 1 year non guaranteed contract (if he gets injured he doesn’t earn anything) when he was finally healthy he pitched well for the yankess in 08
Bullpen
Closer
A. Fransisco 62 sv Rodriguez
B. Kerry Wood 34 sv (ok if you have Ryan Dempster(see above starter 4.) or David Weathers (see bullpen number 11) for inshurace
c.Brian Fuentes is a good closer but can be wild.
d.Ryan Dempster (see starter 4)
Bullpen (free agent pick ups only)
1.Darren Oliver welcome back he’s a free agent (pitched for the Mets in 06) was 7-1 with a 2.68 era for LAA in 08
2.Dennys Reyes was 3-0 with a 2.33 era in 08 with MIn. has a 0.89 era with 50.2 innings pitched in 06
3.Arthur Rhodes had a 2.04 era between Sea and Fla in 08
4.Russ Springer had a 2.32 era for Stl in 08
5.will ohman 3.68 era for Atl in 08
6.Juan Cruz 2.61 era with Ari in 08
7.Doug Brocail had a 3.93 with Hou in 08
8. Joe Beimel had a 2.02 era with Lad in 08
9.brian shouse 5-1 with a 2.81 era as a reliver for the Mil bullpen in 08.
10. jeremy affeldt proved his worth with Cin in 08 with a 3.33 era and had a 3.51 era in Home run Heaven Col in 07
11.Rudy Seanez had a 3.53 era with Phi in 08
12. David Weathers wasn’t good when he was back with the Mets but last 3 years with Cin his Max era was 3.59 he also had 33 sv in 07. Said he doesn’t want to close.
13. Mark Hendrickson good in 1 inning bullpen role for marlins when he became part of bullpen in 08
the chart above is not a dream chart it is a realistic one (that’s why C.C. Sabathia and orlando hudson is not on the list
I keep Stokes, Feliciano and Parnell… give Sanchez and Stokes last chances in spring training, see if Kunz is closer to ready similarly…
And other than that, throw out the trash.
Schoeneweis can go screw himself inside the Devil’s ass and Heilman can be forced to watch.
See if you can steal both K-Rod AND Oliver from Anaheim, that’s sort of my main first plan for the bullpen.
The Mets have options at the middle fillers for the bullpen… what they don’t have are a legitimate closer and a legitimate longman.
Excuse me SMITH Feliciano and Parnell are all basically keepers, to one extent or another.