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September 11, 2008
Can Kunz Close in 2009?
August 2, 2008 may have been Billy Wagner’s last time taking the mound as an elite closer in the major leagues. Unfortunately for the Mets, Wagner will continue to receive an elite closer paycheck through the entire 2009 season while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery in the hopes of returning strong in 2010. However, his return isn’t likely to be with the Mets as Eddie Kunz is supposed be closing in New York by 2010. What happens until then though? The Mets spending more high draft picks than I can count on relievers was supposed to prepare them for this. Right? Why then do I feel as if the Mets will need to find somebody outside of the organization for next season? What are the chances Kunz will seize the role in spring training? Additionally, who could fill the void should he fail? Eddie Kunz was the 42nd overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft out of Oregon State. Coming off an NCAA championship with Oregon State where he served as a shut-down closer, he was billed as a near-ready major league reliever who would be the Mets closer sooner rather than later. Drafted ahead of potential impact players Michael Burgess (WAS), Neil Ramirez (TEX), Michael Stanton (FLA), and Freddie Freeman (ATL), Omar Minaya took a calculated risk in drafting Kunz to an organization whose minor league system included very few high ceiling players. For this to pay off, Kunz has to become the closer and achieve significant success. His 2008 season to date has included 27 saves in Double-A, but his peripherals show a reliever who has underachieved and whose brief struggles in both Triple-A and with the Mets may be a sign of things to come. I’d put Kunz’ odds of breaking spring training as the Mets closer at about 20%. Any future closer of Kunz’s size (6’5”, 265 lbs.) who strikes out less than a batter per inning and sports a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 sets off alarm bells in my head. His numbers just do not indicate a pitcher ready to take the reins as a closer in a major media market. This leaves us weighing other options currently with the Mets: Joe Smith was another early round draft pick spent on a reliever in 2006. With this being his second year in the bigs after being a third-round pick, he has been a great find for the Mets. However, his peripherals indicate a good, but not great reliever who will likely be out of his element as a closer at the big league level. I put his chances at about 15%. Duaner Sanchez will be a free agent after the season and may have to play with another one-year contract to prove his arm strength is all the way back after a recent dip in velocity. With his full repertoire, he could compete for the closer role should he re-sign, but his needing to both sign and regain his lost velocity put his chances of closing at about 10%. As an Aaron Heilman apologist, even I’m not willing to give him much of a chance to be the team’s closer in 2009. With the possibility of both Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez leaving via free agency, this may be Heilman’s chance to return to the rotation where I’ve always felt he should be. With that said, his chance to close is 5%. Should Luis Ayala return to the Mets and not leave via free agency, I would also give him a 5% chance to close. His career numbers and time missed due to injury are similar to Duaner Sanchez, but Sanchez has had better success in 2008, and his spending more of his career with the Mets gives him a slight advantage. Ambiorix Burgos also receives a 5% stake in the Mets closer race based on his pre-surgery triple-digit fastball and his being the only player mentioned thus far with the ability to strike out more than a player per inning. Pedro Feliciano is also a player who could receive some consideration for the role, but he’s perfectly situated as the lefty setup man and the Mets would be ill-advised to mess with a good thing. This brings us to options outside of the organization. If my tally is correct, there is a 40% chance the Mets closer in 2009 will come from outside the organization. With that said, here is my wish list which will only include one year stopgap types since I’m proceeding with the assumption that the Mets will spend 2009 grooming Kunz as a setup man with the intention of turning over the closer role to him in 2010. Juan Cruz - Cruz enters free agency as one of the most undervalued relievers in the game. His ERA currently stands at 2.91, and his 61 strikeouts and .188 BAA in 43 1/3 innings pitched screams closer. I could see him inking a one year deal with a chance to close in the hopes of securing a multi-year deal in 2010. What better place to do that than the Big Apple? Trevor Hoffman - With the Padres badly needing to rebuild, would Trevor Hoffman leave the west coast for a shot at a ring? After seeing Brett Favre in a Jets jersey Sunday, anything is possible. Hoffman would serve as a perfect tutor to both Smith and Kunz. He’s not the shut-down closer he once was, but could playing for a contender in a new stadium reinvigorate him? Brandon Lyon - With 26 saves, Lyon now has experience as a closer on a playoff contender. Unfortunately, that experience comes with a 4.76 ERA and a .302 BAA. His attempt to earn a huge payday did not turn out as he had hoped, but if Joe Borowski and Todd Jones can hang around as closers, there’s no reason Brandon Lyon can’t also. Salomon Torres - With the Brewers holding a 3.75 million-dollar team option for Torres’ services in 2009, it is very unlikely that he will be available to sign with the Mets. However, the Brewers may be wise to deal him after a career season in which he is likely to save 30+ games. With an ERA currently one and a half runs below his career average, his value has not been this high since he was a prospect in the early 1990s. The Mets could, of course, also make major play for Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes. They certainly have the money to dabble, but a signing of that magnitude would mean the Mets recent draft philosophy of relievers early and often has proved to be a complete and utter failure. I doubt the Mets are willing to make that concession quite yet. 19 Responses to “Can Kunz Close in 2009?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I think Kunz could do a reasonably good (not great) job at closer for 2009 but I don’t think he’ll get the chance. He might get the chance if their first and second choices go down with injuries.
I’d throw in Stokes at 5 percent also.
I’d be surprised if Omar does not make a run at someone like Lidge.
But I say bring back my main man Henry Owens. He’ll be striking out more than a hitter per inning….until he gets injured again…
I’d love to see Heilman get his chance to start, but is this knee tendonitis a problem that will continue? I knew he had tendonitis problems in his pitching arm, but didn’t know about the knee problem. I am blindly faithful to Heilman, feel his pegging him as a whiner was completely unfair, and still believe, if healthy, he can average 15 wins a season as a starter.
Heilman´ll get traded. Maybe he´ll start for someone else.
I think the premise that the Mets will only get a stopgap reliever because they´re grooming Kunz is off-base. While Trevor Hoffman is an interesting idea, I think the Mets could go after two names not mentioned here:
Brian Fuentes
Derek Lowe
Fuentes will cost a lot as the primary alternative to F-Rod, but would be a very good closer for several years. Lowe could close for a year (as he did in Boston) while mentoring Kunz, then become a starter again if needed.
The Phillies signed Lidge to a three-year extension, so he’s off the table.
Heilman can’t get 3 outs anymore. He’s a shell of himself. I think he still has hope to come back… with another team. He needs a change of scenery.
The Mets will definitely be in for Fuentes.
Derek Lowe will start if the Mets go after him.
Rafael Soriano is an intriguing power arm, but I would sign him to bolster the pen as another setup arm, not as a closer at this point in his career. Of course, that all depends on how he comes back from surgery.
To answer a few questions…
Stokes’ career ERA and WHIP sit at 5.74 and 1.64 respectively in 111 career innings. The Mets would be slammed by fans and in the media for opening up a new stadium as an NL East contender with Stokes closing.
The Marlins still like Henry Owens and feel he can contend for the closers role there from everything I’ve read. I doubt the Marlins would deal Owens within the division. Besides, 2009 will be Henry’s age 30 season and he currently have 27 career innings under his belt. Owens a closer in a small market maybe, but this is the big apple and more experience is necessary.
With Heilman, Tendinitis is an iffy thing. I had a chronic case of it as a catcher in college and it made it VERY difficult to be effective. With that said, Heilman’s pitching once a week as a #5 and having a start skipped every once in awhile should be better for his health than pitching twice a week and warming up another two.
Derek Lowe very well could wind up in a Mets uniform and it would be a good signing. I’ve always been a Lowe fan and he would fit in nicely to a Santana-Maine-?-Pelfrey-Niese/Heilman rotation. However, he’s the 3rd best free agent starter in this class and is in line for a contract better than the 4 year, 48 million pact Carlos Silva signed last winter. He hasn’t had an ERA of more than 3.88 and a WHIP higher than 1.27 in four seasons and his lowest inning total is 199 1/3 during that span. With that said, a number of teams will be after his services and there’s just no way he signs with the Mets to become a closer.
I swapped out Lidge for Fuentes in the article. With the quick turnaround time, I didn’t catch the extension.
This leaves Fuentes who will cost less than K-Rod because of the Rockies jerking him around. However, he will still demand a multi-year deal at 8 million per or more. His save total isn’t great, but his peripherals are strikingly similar to K-Rod. If I’m smart enough to figure that out, an agent will certainly point out the win differential between the Angels and Rockies and say “K-Rod is demanding 12-15 million per, Fuentes is a steal at 8-10 with his peripherals!”
In a future piece, I’ll be looking at the Mets propensity for drafting relievers in the high rounds in the last few drafts. The only reason to draft a reliever with a pick in the 1st or 2nd rounds is to groom them as a closer. To spend high picks on middle men when a team can fill their organization with high ceiling guys is an terrible draft philosophy. One could argue that should Kunz’ success alone will determine the success of that entire class.
Please lets not sign Soriano. He is a walking injury waiting to happen who has a terrible record of durability issues throughout his career.
Soriano most certainly is a walking injury, but he also may have the best pure stuff of anybody available. It’s classic risk versus reward.
F-ROD PLEASE…. As good as he is the big players who usually drive the price up are not looking at him. The Yankees and Red Sox will not be in on this. Closers don’t usually get absurd contracts like some starters so I hope we at least dabble before throwing in the towell. Remember we are opening a new stadium and I can’t see putting out a mediocre closer for the beginning of Citifield. Plus we start getting that 20 mill per year from Citibank so we can afford it.
Yes the Red Sox and the Yanks are the two biggest spenders, but the Braves will have 40 million or so in payroll off the books after this year. The Dodgers closer situation is in limbo and they like to spend money too. Other teams that could be in the running are the Angels, D-Backs and Brewers. There are 8-10 teams who will be closer to the playoffs next season and feel like K-Rod could put them over the top. Somebody will pay HUGE! If Francisco Cordero gets 46 for 4, K-Rod will likely demand 60 million over 5 years or more. I’d rather put that K-Rod money into Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe, C.C., or a handful of other players.
Joakim Soria please.
just say No-Rod.
K-rate plummeting and has lost considerable velocity off his fastball and slider in back to back years now.
both not things you wanna see from a 26 year old asking to get paid.
Fuentes or in-house.
Soriano signed a contract extension before the 08 season. He is a Brave through 2009
We also shouldn’t sign Soriano because the Braves will still control him next year.
Could a dude’s velocity be going down because he doesn’t have to throw that fast anymore and he’s pacing himself, doing more with less effort?
I’m just saying, it is possible.
Had Steve Traschel still been around none of these bad things happen. Just saying
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html
There’s a better list of pending FA’s than the one I used to look up guys. The list I was using must have been outdated.
Burgos’ rehab may be set back a bit after this…
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2008/09/09/2008-09-09_mets_relief_pitcher_ambiorix_burgos_arre.html
Im not even sure Kunz can close period let alone in 2009 lol.