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July 21, 2008
Plan B, Revisited
I banged out the skeleton for my “Rebuild the Mets” piece following the Friday night loss to the Phillies, figuring that the Mets were destined to scuffle and scrimp and claw their way to a .500 season. At the very end, though, I did what all worried writers who put forth an opinion do: I hedged. I made a brief allusion to the Giants’ Super Bowl run (which, of course, was awesome), and then moved on. It makes my piece a bit less incendiary: instead of saying, “the Mets need to rebuild NOW,” it becomes the more agreeable, “If the Mets keep struggling, it would be practical to trade off some spare parts.” And that, of course, was all followed by a 10-game winning streak, the one which the Mets have been waiting for since June 2007. Granting that much of the performance on this streak is unsustainable (Fernando Tatis is hitting .425/.465/.825 this month), the wins will remain on the ledger until the end of the year. One 20-game hot streak (say, 16-4) surrounded by .500 baseball for the rest of the season gets you into the playoffs in the NL. Or at least damn close. The realities, then, have changed quite quickly. Take a look at this graph of the division odds, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and Excel:  The Mets haven’t sniffed 40% since late May. A well-timed pre-All Star Break stretch has boosted them right to even money. Again, welcome to the National League. I feel that my initial point still holds: the Mets should be willing to sell this year, if they find themselves back around .500 at the end of the month. That looks much less likely now than it did two weeks ago, so it becomes more of a philosophical exercise than anything else. But I’ll hang onto it. Anyway, there was some interesting feedback from the great readers here on my “Plan B” article, so I figured I’d address it directly. Please refer back to the original piece for the actual comments. Peter H: Good point on second and third order wins, and I agree wholeheartedly on Mr. Rollins. I suspect some rebound because of lingering first-half injuries, but 2007, not 2008, is the outlier. The Phils will be seeing some bullpen regression, too. But Howard, as we see, is starting to get comfortable. Danny: His comment warrants a mea culpa on my end. One of the bloggers I hold great respect for writes over at The Skeptical Optimist. I love Steve Conover’s definition of a “skeptic”: one who weighs the evidence before deciding, and after. The truth is that I did not realize that Delgado had been doing so well, and a quick look at the statistics proved that Danny was right and I was wrong: Delgado has been perfectly serviceable since April 27, particularly against righties. With that in mind, Hubie’s comment suggesting that the Mets trade Delgado is pretty viable, too. Suppose a team needs a righty-mashing power bat? A contender with a weakness at first base or DH but with some lefty-hitting options? The Angels fit the bill here, actually; they’ve been DHing Garret Anderson, who is far worse off than Delgado at this point. Delgado’s contract expires at the end of the year, so he’s no albatross. And he certainly has value, at this stage. The Tigers, with Sheffield’s lack of production this year, could use another bat (wouldn’t have said that in the offseason). Pat Andriola: Your perspective is solid, here. My hope is that the Met front office does this all the time, but I won’t hold my breath over that fact. JamesSC: I agree with James’ overall point here: the Mets aren’t that far away. But most of the guys I suggested are fringe parts and contract-year players. Pedro’s not going to be back next year. Ollie’s unlikely, too. I think the idea of trading now is to position yourself to be players in the free agent market for 08-09 and then surging right back into it next year. Teix is definitely a good fit here. And the president has done some groundbreaking work in nuclear physics over the past few years, so there’s that. madisonmetsfan: Perhaps this is a pipe dream, but I think that fans will tolerate more “rebuilding” than is commonly believed. I’m not advocating anything dramatic here; most of these guys have no place in the Mets’ 2010 plans. I think the Mets can be a competitive, improved team for the new stadium with the right moves, not in three to five years. Next year. Much of this is based on the fact that the ‘09 Mets will look significantly different than the ‘08 Mets, simply because of expiring contracts. MightyJoeOrsulak: Indeed, there was a dearth of the word “dearth” in the article. I like your thinking here, too; it’s interesting to take these ideas and see where they end up. If it’s me, I’m not opposed to dealing anyone, except for Wright and Reyes. But it all depends on the offers; I wouldn’t be actively shopping guys like Beltran. gene: Omar’s track record certainly does not give us any indication that he would be a “seller.” Here’s hoping the better play is to buy, so that it won’t make a difference. Still, I hope that Minaya would have the foresight to sell if the Mets were, say, five games under .500 at the deadline. Perhaps I’m pushing for a “sell point” that is a bit too aggressive, but there is definitely a point within reason where the Mets would be better off selling. The recent hot streak, of course, has put that point quite a bit further in the rearview mirror. Indeed, lots of good comments, and lots of good news from the Mets this week. If they keep it up, this is all academic, and I’ll join the buyers’ camp. 27 Responses to “Plan B, Revisited”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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So, then what? Are you still in favor of trading players away from this team when it is tied for first place? Or do you need to actually see more to be sold on the idea that this team is good enough to win the NL East?
Also, where in any of your articles do you consider the impact of new managerial leadership guiding this team to its win streak? You seem to casually dismiss the team’s recent success to playing in the NL but look at the record under Jerry Manuel. The numbers (18-11, .621%) and the overall improvement in the quality of team play do not lie.
I take that back. Jerry Manuel’s record as Mets manager is 19-11 now. That’s good for a .633 win percentage.
Trading Delgado while he still appears to be worth trading for would do so much good for the future that it isn’t even funny.
Even in a season where there’s “hope for the playoffs” you have to have the balls to also prepare yourself for the future.
Sadly, no one’s going to give anyone anything for… Alou or Castillo or Pedro or El Duque… even if they were all off the DL. Only Minaya was gullible to set up those guys as a “win now” plan.
You just let their contracts expire and hope they retire before that happens.
But there’s a ticking clock on Delgado between now and whenever the next little bump or fluke exposes him as the oldest 35 year old in the world once again.
Maybe the Angels or the Dodgers have fallen for the “to win now, we need a guy who can hit moonshots and do little else!” fallacy and…
If you can get a Loney or a Kotchman along with even one other prospect… hell, you can still “win now” with those players back in place.
And if you can get someone to take Anderson with him… all the better.
We will never know. The Mets are 7 games over with 9 games until the deadline. If they lost every game they would be 2 under .500.
They’re nine games over and they should make certain moves now. You can rebuild for tomorrow while still playing for today, you know.
These aren’t mutually exclusive things. The best teams do both at the same time.
The Mets should be one of those best teams… but they have to start here and start now.
Its absolutely insane to trade Delgado now that he is stroking the ball in order to hope that his replacement will come in and produce an .800+ OPS. It isn’t happening. This teams recent offensive success has been largely contingent upon his resurgence and replacing him with someone who has never been proven to produce those numbers for over a month of regular play is a formula for defeat this season.
BTW, there is no way in Hell that the Dodgers would trade James Loney to us for Carlos Delgado. You would have to really sweeten the pot on top of Delgado with other prospects for them to consider such a deal. But if by the blind miracle that Ned Colletti is stupid enough to straight-up trade Loney for a player with approximately the same OPS who is 10 years the former’s senior, then Omar should go ahead and do it. Until then I will wait for pigs to fly and water to turn into wine.
Omar being Omar, if assumes that Delgado hits 28 home runs and knocks in 95 (even though there will be long dry spells between each hot streak), he’s not going to trade him this year. And if he reaches those numbers, Omar might even pick up his option for next year. If you think that Delgado looked old this year, watch him stand in one place next year. He could still be a reasonable DH next year.
There’s noway a team that is tied for first is going to start trading off pieces……noway. The financial benefits of making the playoffs is so great that a team would have to be crazy to start selling off players when the mets are in a position to win the division.
Why trade Delgado? What do you honestly think your going to get in return? You’ll probably get more production from Delgado then what he would give you back in a trade.
You’ll get very little in return for Delgado (other teams have been paying attention, you know). He’s both old AND an upcoming free agent. He has some value but not enough to get more than a middling prospect or some bench help.
What it comes down to: we do not have a replacement in our system that could duplicate or better his output. Nor do we have the ability to upgrade him on the trade market.
I still think we deal with what we’ve got in Delgado, maybe find a reasonable left fielder to round out the lineup, and then feel free to use Tatis to spell Delgado against the tough lefties when Delgado comes back down to earth. Of course, this all depends on Church’s condition.
LFM was actually the one supporting a trade of Delgado. My comment was there was zero chance of that happening in line with Lunk’s comment above, he has little value. I am still surprised at Delgado’s level of production. Unfortunately, since he has been a Met, Delgado has followed his good months with lousy ones. Lets hope this is a trend that does not continue.
Not convinced yet. This could still be more like a dead cat bounce. Mets looked ragged this weekend. Not being able to finish off Josh Fogg, who had absoloutely nothing was concerning.
A successful home stand this week with 4 wins and quality play would go a long way to convince me though.
Not to mention the fact that, lets admit this, six of the wins in The Streak, were at home against two teams that have already given up on the season.
A split at Cincy that could’ve easily ended with the Mets swept… yeah, I have to at least consider what Hubie’s saying.
But Delgado hasn’t looked old. He has been very good this season, especially as the season has progressed. Any analysis of his numbers would show this.
Did you expect them to continue sweeping every team they play, sustaining such a high level of play for as long? If anything I could argue that this team is doing well because it managed to split a series in spite of the fact that it executed rather poorly in most of them.
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So, the Mets are not improved because they consistently won against teams were were supposed to beat? Wasn’t that the problem and not their play against the better teams in the league?
Looking above I did not type that I expected them to sweep every series, so don’t put words in my mouth or on my keyboard. I do expect I team that expects to contend to finish off a pitcher like Fogg when he has nothing and they have him on the ropes every inning. The loss Friday stunk but Arroyo is always tough on us, the loss Saturday was flat out not acceptable.
Does anyone here remember about 1.5 months ago when I said that if Carlos Delgado got near Carlos Beltran in batting average which he has now done then just how bad has Beltran played this year on offense??? Let me tell you this Beltran is not clutch like some on this site think he is. I’ve seen Beltran either strikeout or pop up to the infield much more then I’ve seen him get a hit with men on base. In talent alone, Beltran might be in the top 5 in the leauge, but he has no heart and has no desire to make that talent into what ARod has become. Does Arod have more natural talent then Beltran? I would have to say Hell NO. Does David Wright have more talent then Beltran? Hell No. Beltran should be a feared player on offense, but who fears a hitter that will more then likely take strike 3 with men on base?
this Danica Patrick getting towels thrown in her face by Muno is funny as hell. to bad they couldn’t get naked and cat fight.
Fogg one hit the Brewers in his last start. Think about that.
Did you watch the start agst the Brew Crew? Well, I watched him on Saturday and he had nothing on the ball, serving up meat the entire night. I am sure they were embarrassed losing to him on Saturday.
batting average is but one stat to use in determining how good a season a player is having.
Oh, and if Beltran “either strikeout or pop up to the infield much more then I’ve seen him get a hit with men on base” then how do you account for his 68 RBI’s?
He’s hitting 284 with RISP, slugging 500 and his OPS is 875.
with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs he’s at 450 avg, 650 slg% and 1.108 ops in 20 at bats. 18 rbi’s 23 runs.
So he’s doing a bit more than stiking out or popping up.
So your entire point is based around the idea that the Mets aren’t necessarily a contender because they had an off-day against Fogg? Hmmm…I guess I will go ahead and put more words into your mouth because the ones spilling onto your keyboard make little sense at all…
man i checked out your blogger skeptic/optimist… terrible analysis of energy issues. MAkes me not want to read anymore.
Ahhh… Obviously, you took a couple hacks at him during the game…. HE THREW A ONE HITTER.
….
“Yeah, he no hit us but, man, he was crap.”
You make it sound he threw a complete game shutout. He gave up 1 hit in 5+ innings and blew up in the 6.
Lets see what he does his next start.
You are a real blow hard and a jack ass. For some one who claims to know so much, you are a fraud!
I should not have to explain myself to a big know it all like your self Ramon, but if you let a real crappy pitcher like Fogg off the hook, it does not bode well, especially when you follow up with a similar perforamnce on Sunday and end up being quite fortunate to win. If the Mets want to win the division, they can’t afford to let games like Saturday slip away. Philly has been struggling long enough, but don’t expect that to continue. They are bound to get on a good roll and when they do, we can’t afford to let games slip away. It’ll become too reminiscent of last September
Well, the energy issues in this country are quite complex, and it would be kind of difficult to speak to all of the many factors in a small space.