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July 18, 2008
  
Mets at the Trade Deadline
by: gene on Jul 18, 2008 11:06 AM | Filed under: Journals

I made this list thinking we should be buyers at the trade deadline to compete with the Phils, Cubs, and the like for the playoffs.  After looking at the available talent, I cannot see many viable players that would really put us over the top.  Ultimately, a sell high strategy would maximize benefit for the Mets as relievers Scott Schoenweiss and Pedro Feliciano are pitching out of their minds and can easily be replaced through the farm system.  Simultaneously, their departures would import mid to low level talent at St. Lucie or Binghamton. 

Anyway, here is a list of a few players who are available and may be helpful if things break right. 

Baltimore 

Aubrey Huff: 1B, $8m

2008 STATS

AVG/OBP/SLG .287/.349/.528, 18 HR, 60 RBI

Summary

All hit, no glove type who could be useful down the stretch since he can absolutely rake.  Has a good frame for first base at 6’4” 235lbs, but is not fast or athletic.  His body size also indicates a steep decline curve within a few years which diminishes his value.  That said his salary is very reasonable at $8m per year and will likely be useful for at least 2 more years.

What it’ll take

One top level prospect and a mid level prospect: likely a position player and a pitcher in the high minors.  I’m thinking one of Mike Carp/Dan Murphy/Nick Evans and either Neise, Parnell, or Kunz. 

Kansas City

Jose Guillen: OF, $12m

2008 Stats:

AVG/OBP/SLG.270/.295/.462, 13 HR, 65 RBI

Summary

This is a terrible, highly overrated player who does not get on base and does not generate enough power to pay for his lack of OBP or his monstrous salary.  I actually can’t believe he is an everyday player, but he does have an excellent arm and top tier range in the field.  Personally, I wouldn’t take Guillen under any circumstances.

What it’ll take

Two low level prospects: The Royals need to dump this contract and open up playing time for younger players so he’ll be cheap.  I think a package of Lucas Duda and Maikel Cleto would do the trick.   

Mark Grudzielanek: 2B, $4.5m

2008 StatsAVG/OBP/SLG.309/.360/.410, 3HR, 20RBI

Summary

This guy is playing out of his mind right now and playing a solid 10% better than his career numbers at the ripe young age of 38.  The chances of him sustaining this are slim and none so this is a classic case of buying high.  Damion Easley/ Argenis Reyes are playing great right now and Luis Castillo is right around the corner from returning to the everyday lineup. 

What it’ll take

The same package offered for Jose Guillen would do the trick, but like Guillen, there is no way I make this move. 

Seattle

Raul Ibanez: LF, $5.5m

2008 StatsAVG/OBP/SLG

.273/.338/.438, 11HR, 55RBI

Summary

At 36yrs, he doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank but he is hitting this year with solid Major League-average production out of a corner outfield spot.  I personally don’t think he brings a whole lot more to the table than anyone we already have in house.  But because of the horrible play of the Ms this year and his salary, I think this is a guy who could be rented for cheap.

What it’ll take

Eating the contract and one low level prospect: The Mariners will be the first $100m team to lose 100 games and I think they are likely in firesale mode to quickly rebuild their tattered system.   

Erik Bedard: SP, $7m2

008 Stats ERA/WHIP/BAA

3.67/1.32/.231, 6wins, 4 losses and 72/37 K/BB Ratio

Summary

A frontline starter in person but a solid #2 on paper, Bedard is an excellent addition to any staff including our own.  Mike Pelfrey is pitching out of his mind and his peripherals don’t support his wins, Pedro is very creaky, Perez and Maine have been pretty inconsistent this year and Johan cant stop giving up home runs. 

What it’ll take

3 top tier prospects: Minimum package of Fernando Martinez, Bobby Parnell, and Jon Neise.  There will be shoppers for Bedard’s services and we’d have to pay to lock him up.  That said, he would shore up the rotation and add at least 3-5 wins over whichever mediocre guy we throw out there as the 5th starter.  I think the price will ultimately be too high and hope that the 2-headed Pedro-ElDuque monster can regain some form. 

Pittsburgh

Xavier Nady: OF, $3.5m

2008 StatsAVG/OBP/SLG

.321/.377/.525, 12HR, 56 RBIs

Summary

Well, haven’t we come full circle on this one?  Nady has been a top prospect, a Met, and the bringer of Bert Hernandez.  All of these are good things, but he has finally put it together with regular playing time for the Pirates.  With back-to-back solid seasons and solid home run/doubles power, he could be our Ryan Church sans concussions.  At 29, he is in the middle of his prime and has 3-4 good years in him.

What it’ll take

1 top prospect and 1 lower level prospect: We really only have about 2-3 top level prospects so we should start there.  A package centered around one of Evans/Murphy/Carp trio in addition to a live arm like Dylan Owen or Maikel Cleto should get it done depending on who else is in the market. 

Jason Bay: OF, $6m

2008 StatsAvg/Obp/Slg

.288/.388/.529, 19HR, 53 RBI

Summary

Bay is one of the most underrated players in the game combining, defense, speed, power, average, and on base ability- almost a poor mans Carlos Beltran.  He’s consistently put up 25 HR, 30 double seasons with near .400 OBPs since 2004 and though his steals are significantly down in recent years.  At 29, he is too young for a steep decline and could likely be useful for 3 more seasons as a left fielder starting ahead of the guy Omar traded him for…

What it’ll take

A top level prospect and 2 low level prospects: Based on brand name alone, it will take slightly more to get Bay than Nady, but ultimately you’d be buying comparable products.  The Evans/Murphy/Carp trio at the top and 2 low level arms could get the job done here especially since the Bay brand has been tainted by a horrible 2007 season. 

San Diego

Brian Giles: OF, ~$10m

2008 stats:AVG/OBP/SLG

.297/.390/.427, 5HR, 30RBI

Summary

At this stage, Giles has no power whatsoever but can still run, play defense and get on base at an incredible clip.  He will perennially be in the league leaders in walks and he can still hit doubles.  On the downside, he’s 37 and can’t hit for power and his injury risk will likely increase while his production will likely decrease.

What it’ll take

2 mid level arms: A package consisting of two of the following three: Nathan Vineyard, Scott Moviel and Bobby Parnell would get the job done here.  Padres need some young pitchers for their huge ballpark and these guys are young enough to improve quickly and are only a few years away from the majors.  Moviel especially is attractive as a 6’10” 250 potential closer. Cincinnati

Adam Dunn: OF/1B, $13m

2008 statsAVG/OBP/SLG

.228/.381/.544, 27 HRs, 60RBIs

Summary

This guy is the prototypical boom or bust player with each at bat resulting in either a) a walk, b) a homerun or c) a strikeout.  There isn’t a whole lot else going on here.  But at 28 entering his walk year, Dunn is just hitting his prime with 3+ seasons left of 40 home run production to go along with mind bending frustration over strikeouts.  He will lead the league in homeruns, strikeouts, and walks in the same season before its all said and done.  But the massive amount of walks makes him attractive and massively undervalued.  Ultimately, since he is a FA after the season, we would inherently overpay to get him since we can get him for a draft pick in the offseason.

What it’ll take

1 premium level prospect, 1 mid level prospect, and 1 lower level prospect: I think a package starting with Fernando Martinez at the top, either Jon Neise or Bobby Parnell at the mid level, and Maikel Cleto, Lucas Duda, or Dylan Owen at the low levels could do the trick.


3 Responses to “Mets at the Trade Deadline”

  1. Comment posted by Danny on July 18, 2008 at 11:27 am (#769830)

    Nice journal. Well thought-out and a lot of info and some good ideas.

    My one quibble is that I think you are severely underestimating what the Pirates want back for Nady and Bay. Take what you think the Reds want for Dunn and apply that to Nady and Bay, because those are the Pirates expectations, from essentially everything I have read.

  2. Comment posted by gene on July 18, 2008 at 12:13 pm (#769873)

    I actually completely agree with you Danny. I think we’d have to add another 2 top level prospects and a mid level type to get Nady/Bay. So it would be probably have to be the following package:
    Two of the following three: Evans, Murphy, Carp
    -AND-
    Either Neise or Parnell
    -AND-
    one of the low level guys: Cleto, Duda, Owens, etc

  3. Comment posted by Super T on July 18, 2008 at 9:28 pm (#770783)

    The team DEFINITELY needs to make a move as Chavez and Tatis aren’t taking the team to the playoffs. I say we trade for the best corner OF we can get without giving up F-mart.

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