A sweep. An honest-to-God, three-game sweep. They haven’t had one since April, against the Washington Nationals. And for the first time since then, the Mets (48-44) pushed around the dregs of the National League, winning all three games by a combined score of 19-3. Now, the Mets have a record four games over .500, they’re riding a six-game winning streak—their longest of the season—and they’re finally playing baseball that can inspire excitement. Still, they’ll have to keep it up against another weak team from the West, the Colorado Rockies. The Mets last faced the Rockies on June 22nd at Coors Field, taking two of three. After that, the Rockies proceeded to lose their next seven games before turning things around against the Padres. Since then, they’ve won seven of their last ten despite dropping two of three from the Brewers this week.
The Mets can look forward to facing Aaron Cook (11-6, 3.66), Ubaldo Jimenez (4-8, 4.21), and Mark Redman (2-4, 7.07). They answer with Oliver Perez (6-5, 4.62), Pedro Martinez (3-2, 6.86), and Mike Pelfrey (7-6, 3.93).
Game 1: Aaron Cook, RHP
What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report here.
This Year: It’s been feast or famine for Cook against the Mets this season. In the first, he was dominant, allowing just one run on four hits and a walk while going the distance. In the second, he had trouble keeping the ball down in the thin air of Coors. He allowed 12 hits and six runs over seven innings, including homeruns to Carlos Delgado and Trot Nixon.
What to Expect: Cook’s not hard to figure. He’ll throw a ton of fastballs, mostly sinkers and cutters in the lower half of the strike zone. When he gets ahead with two strikes, he’ll turn to his breaking pitch, but his aim is to let hitters put the ball in play. If his location’s off—as it was in the early going last time—he can be hit hard. Otherwise, you just have to pray the groundballs go where the fielders aren’t. Cook is coming off a rough outing where he pitched into the eighth inning, but allowed seven runs on eleven hits to the Marlins. In his previous start against the Pads, he threw a complete game shutout.
Game 2: Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
What’s the Story? You can find my scouting report on Jimenez here.
This Year: Jimenez pitched brilliantly against the Mets in his last outing, throwing eight two-hit innings over which he allowed just one run. He did walk four batters, however, and struck out just two.
What to Expect: Jimenez’s big problem is control. Thus far, he’s walked 57 batters in 107 innings, a rate that will have to improve if he wants to succeed. One thing he has done a good job of this year is getting groundballs, thanks to locating his fastball low in the strike zone and utilizing his great slider. He’s allowed just six homers this season, which is going to go a long way towards preventing those extra walks from coming home. Early in the game he’ll throw a ton of fastballs before slowly mixing in his other pitches earlier in counts. For the most part, he’ll stick with the slider and change as out pitches with the slider being the better pitch.
Game 3: Mark Redman, LHP
What’s the Story? I have to say, I had completely forgotten Redman was with the Rockies. He started 2007 with the Braves, pitching well enough to get released at the end of May. He was picked up by the Rangers but didn’t start a game with them and was released again in July. The Rockies picked him up in August, and he made three September starts for them, pitching fairly well. This year he’s pitched quite poorly, making one notable start where he allowed ten runs in the first inning but still pitched through the sixth. Shortly after that, he was demoted to Triple-A Colorado Springs and was recalled in early July. Redman’s the definition of a finesse guy: his best pitch is his changeup, and he throws his fastballs in the mid-80s, and he’ll add some cut or sink to it from time-to-time. He’ll also throw a slow curve.
Last Year: Redman pitched against the Mets as a member of the Braves in April of 2007. He was hit pretty hard, giving up five runs on nine hits over five innings and change. He walked one and struck out two.
What to Expect: Redman just doesn’t appear to have a whole lot left in the tank. Location is still the biggest key to Redman’s performance. If he can keep his fastball low in the zone and throw the cutter in on the hands of righties, he’ll have a chance at success. He’ll try to get ahead with the cutter and fastball, and if he fails he’ll just throw “heaters” right down the pipe. If he does, he’ll turn to his changeup to induce a weak groundout, but it’s worth noting that it doesn’t have the same downward bite it used to. He’ll mix in the curve occasionally, though mostly to give a different look to lefties.
Overall: I’ll pick two out of three here. I think Ollie’s on a roll now, and he’ll outpitch Cook in the opener. I’m still pretty unimpressed with Pedro, so I’ll say the Rockies take the middle game, but I also expect the Mets to do more against Jimenez the second time around. Finally, Mark Redman should scare nobody at this point, so I’ll select the Mets to win the rubber game.
Your analysis sounds right to me.
Pedro isn’t filling me with confidence but hopefully the other two can do their thing.
How about winning 2 of 3 while the Phils drop 2 of 3 and we go to the break 1/2 game out? Now that’s a pennant race. Now if only we had a real left fielder…