The Mets salvaged a split against the Cardinals on Thursday, winning in dominant fashion. But now the Mets (42-43) return to intradivisional play, traveling to Philadelphia for a series against the Phillies (47-39). The Phillies are just 4.5 games up on the Mets, so a strong series here could force the Mets back into contention for the division crown. The Phillies struggled mightily in June, winning just three of their last 14 games in the month. But they started July off well, sweeping the Braves in three games at Atlanta.
It’s a rare four-game weekend series at Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. In the opener, Johan Santana (7-7, 3.01) takes on the recently recalled J.A. Happ (0-0, —). They’ll be followed by John Maine (8-6, 3.86) and Jamie Moyer (7-6, 4.13) on Saturday, and Oliver Perez (6-5, 4.98) and Kyle Kendrick (8-3, 4.58) on Sunday. Finally, Pedro Martinez (2-2, 7.39) duels Adam Eaton (3-6, 4.79) during Monday’s finale.
Game 1: J.A. Happ, LHP
What’s the Story? Happ will be making just his second major-league start; his first start actually came June 30th of last year against the Mets. Happ was having a fine year in Triple-A Lehigh Valley, going 3-5 with a 3.86 with a strong 81-to-30 strike-to-walk ratio over 77 innings of work. The biggest difference from last year has been an improvement of his control—he walked 62 batters in just 118 Triple-A innings last season. Happ throws his fastball in the 88-91 range and can touch 92 frequently. It appears a little faster, however, due to some deception in his delivery. His next best pitch is his changeup, and his slider and curve are both average offerings.
Last Year: As I mentioned, Happ’s only made one other start, and it just so happened to come against the Mets. It didn’t go very well. He allowed five runs on seven hits, including three homeruns and a double. Happ walked two and struck out five.
What to Expect: Happ’s best weapon is really his fastball, which doesn’t have great velocity, but it’s deceptive and he has the ability to command it well. Expect him to work mostly with the heater and his changeup, while tentatively mixing in the breaking stuff. He can’t always command the latter well, so if it isn’t catching the plate, he’ll probably ditch it early. Happ will be out there to throw strikes, and it’s worth noting that he’s given up 11 homers while pitching for the Iron Pigs this season, not to mention those three he gave up to the Mets at Citizens’ Bank last year. It may pay for hitters to be aggressive.
Game 2: Jamie Moyer, LHP
What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Moyer here.
This Year: Moyer’s made two starts against the Mets this season, one at Shea, one in Philly. He allowed two runs over six innings in both of them. Combined, he’s allowed 11 hits, four walks, one homer, and he’s struck out just two. Lifetime, he’s 7-4 with a 2.88 ERA against them.
What to Expect: Moyer’s like a hundred years old. Why can’t he just pitch like it? Moyer’s got an ERA+ of 107 this season, which I think is pretty incredible, considering he looked like he was finally starting to lose it last season. Of course, I said that back in 2004 (and 2000), too. He can’t strike batters out and he’s given up 14 homeruns already, but he’s still got impeccable control, and he’s crafty as all hell. He’ll mix in all his pitches, and he’s confident he can throw any one for strikes on any count.
Game 3: Kyle Kendrick, RHP
What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Kendrick here.
This Year: Kendrick has his worst outing of the year against the Mets on April 9th. He lasted just two-and-a-third innings, demonstrating just no control whatsoever. He walked six batters and allowed seven runs on four hits. Luckily for his ERA, three errors were made while he was in the game (one by Kendrick himself), resulting in just one earned run.
What to Expect: Despite his 8-3 record, Kendrick hasn’t been quite as sharp as he was last season. His strikeout rate is just as pitiful as last season (a little better, actually), but he’s walking a batter more a game, and he’s still making a few too many mistakes up in the zone for a sinkerballer. The biggest difference has really been a change in fortunes. Last year, he had a pretty lucky .279 BABIP, but it’s risen to a more normal .298. And he still doesn’t induce quite as many groundballs as the Phillies would like. Expect him to try to pound the lower strike zone with sinkers, turning to the slider or change when he gets two strikes.
Game 4: Adam Eaton, RHP
What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Eaton here.
This Year:The Mets are making progress against Eaton. They still haven’t beaten him—he’s 5-0 against them over his career—but he hasn’t picked up the victory against them this year, either. In the first start he went six and allowed three runs on five hits and two walks, while striking out five. In the second, he went five and allowed four runs on six hits and a walk, striking out five. See? Progress!
What to Expect: Eaton’s really not pitching that much better than he did last season. But I guess he is pitching better. He’s striking out fewer batters, balanced by a small reduction in his walk rate, but he has been inducing a few more grounders, leading to an improved (if still not good) homerun rate. Location is always Eaton’s enemy, as his stuff is pretty good. But he has a tendency to miss his spots, which leads to too many hitter’s counts. A patient approach usually works best, allowing Eaton to dig himself into a hole where he has to either put hitters on or groove a pitch.
Overall: The Mets have Santana, Maine, Perez, and Pedro pitching this weekend. The problem? Citizens’ Bank isn’t exactly an optimal pitching environment for pitchers with flyball tendencies, as all four guys have. Still, I expect the Mets to take the opener and the third game, with Perez pitching his second straight gem. A split.
SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!!