The Dodgers might have appeared to be a real test for the Mets after their stirring series against the Marlins, but they weren’t. It seems like every time the Mets (28-27) get on a roll, some bottom-dwelling team shows up and smashes my faith in the team over my head. I’m scared to death that it’ll be the Giants (24-33) this time. The Giants aren’t good, especially once you get past their top two starters, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum—and the Mets only have to face Cain this week. In other words, the Giants scare the bejeezus out of me, and maybe the ever-loving snot, too.

In Monday’s game, Oliver Perez (4-3, 4.83) opposes Jonathan Sanchez (3-3, 4.26). Pedro Martinez (0-0, 10.80) returns from the DL on Tuesday to face the $126-million-dollar man, Barry Zito (1-8, 5.53), while John Maine (5-4, 3.66) and Matt Cain (2-3, 4.38) close the series out.

Game 1: Jonathan Sanchez, LHP

What’s the Story? The Giants drafted Sanchez in the 27th round of the 2004 draft, and, after shuttling him back and forth between Fresno’s rotation and San Francisco’s bullpen the past couple years, the Giants finally let Sanchez start at the big league level. Thus far, he’s been very solid for the team. Sanchez has a good arm, featuring a 91-92 mile-per-hour fastball with plenty of life, and it appears faster than it really is, thanks to some deception in his delivery. He uses a very good changeup as an out pitch and also throws a much-improved slider.

Last Year: Sanchez has only made two relief appearances against the Mets, back in June of 2006.

What to Expect: Sanchez pitches very differently to lefties and righties. Against lefties, he abandons the changeup almost entirely, despite it being his best offspeed pitch. Instead, he goes throws early-count fastballs to set up the slider. Against righties, he has a more balanced attack. He’ll still throw a lot of early count fastballs—Sanchez goes with his fastball on the first pitch 87% of the time—but he’ll mix in the changeup throughout the count and will still save the slider for when he gets two strikes. He’s got confidence to throw the change for strikes, even with three balls, which might be unwise since he’s had some trouble with walks to right-handed batters.

Game 2: Barry Zito, LHP

What’s the Story? Is Zito’s $126-million dollar contract the worst of all time? I’m not sure, but it’s not looking good for the Giants. Zito’s decline has only accelerated since donning a Giants’ uniform as he’s been neither effective nor healthy. The Mets really dodged a bullet there, as he went just 11-13 with a 4.53 ERA last season and was “banished” to the pen earlier in the one. The banishment didn’t last long, however, as he didn’t make a single relief appearance. His fastball velocity has continued to decline into the mid-80s, his once majestic curve isn’t as sharp as it used to be, and he’s been forced to rely increasingly on his mediocre changeup. He’ll also throw a very occasional slider.

Last Year: Zito made two starts against the Mets last May and actually pitched quite well. He allowed three runs on seven hits over six innings during the first one, but he got the victory as the Giants won 9-4, and he struck out five while walking just one. During the second, he shut the Mets out for seven innings, allowing just six hits and a walk while striking out seven.

What to Expect: As I mentioned before, Zito’s curve just isn’t the same pitch it once was, and he’s been forced to adapt. Since “returning” from the bullpen, he’s adapted better, striking out 21 batters in 28 innings and change—an improvement—en route to a 3.49 ERA. The keys have been better movement from his two-seam fastball and a dedication to early-count strikes. It should be noted that Zito doesn’t change his plan of attack much against righties, a big reason why they’re hitting .332 against him this season.

Game 3: Matt Cain, RHP

What’s the Story? Cain was the epitome of the hard-luck loser last season, and my fantasy team hated him for it. Cain posted an ERA 22% better than the league average last season, but his record stood at 7-16. This season is shaping up to more of the same: he’s not pitching all that well, but he’s still been stuck with seven no-decisions and three losses. Cain’s been a little up-and-down this year, thanks to spotty command, which continues to be the sole blemish on his game. Cain’s got outstanding stuff: a heavy, low-to-mid-90s fastball, a great hard slider, a solid slower curve, and a changeup that’s nothing special.

Last Year: Take a look at this; I find it incredible:

Date     IP   H   R   ER   BB   SO   HR  Gm Sc
5/8     7.0  10   4    4    1    4    0     44
5/31    7.0  10   4    4    2    5    0     44

Those are two very similar pitching lines. While the final line doesn’t indicate it, he was probably sharper in the second start, during which he got an extra strikeout but also 17 ground balls.

What to Expect: Cain’s a solid pitcher who can get hitters out a number of ways, as he features two good breaking pitches and a fastball that can be used to get groundouts. This year Cain seems to be favoring the slider a little more in two-strike situations, though he’ll opt for the fastball when there are runners on base with less than two outs. Righties will barely see a changeup, while lefties will see their fair share. Batters should be looking to take pitches, as Cain’s command is his weakest point, and he’ll surrender walks.

Overall: I think the Mets can win it. They’re due for an honest stretch where they win 11 of 14 or 16 of 20 or something, if only to set fans up for a bigger let down later on. I think they’ll lose the opener. Sanchez really is a decent pitcher, and the Mets haven’t really faced him before. But they’ll rebound for Pedro’s return and I think Maine will out-duel Cain on Wednesday.