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May 20, 2008
  
Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves Pitchers
by: Alex Nelson on May 20, 2008 1:32 AM | Filed under: Articles

Maybe that players-only meeting really helped. Or maybe the Mets should consider switching leagues. In any event, the Mets (22-19), who had a terribly disappointing homestand against weak competition, did just what they needed to in Yankee Stadium—they looked like the dominating team everyone expected before the season. Now, the Mets have to do it against a team that really matters: the Braves (22-21). The Braves are only in fourth place, but they sit just a game behind the second place Mets, and they actually have the best run differential in the division.

The series starts with a doubleheader on Tuesday; the day game will be pitched by John Maine (5-2, 2.81) and Tom Glavine (1-1, 4.41), while the night game will feature Claudio Vargas (0-1, 2.84) and Jorge Campillo (0-0, 1.27). Mike Pelfrey (2-4, 4.17) opposes Jair Jurrjens (4-3, 2.82) on Wednesday. Thursday, Johan Santana (5-2, 3.30) duels Tim Hudson (6-3, 3.06) in the finale.

Game 1: Tom Glavine, LHP

What’s the Story? You can read my original scouting report on Tom Glavine here.

This Year: What was supposed to be Glavine’s first start against the Mets since 2002 was rained out in April.

What to Expect: There aren’t many firsts left in Tom’s career, but he’s just completed another one: his first trip to the DL. Somehow, I don’t think that one’s going into the scrap book. He’s been remarkably durable over the course of his career, so it’ll be interesting to see how he holds up over the course of the season. He did have a fairly successful return against the Phillies, even if he tired in the sixth inning, which is nothing new. Mets fans should know what to expect: fastball-change-up, occasional cutter, very occasional breaking pitch.

Game 2: Jorge Campillo, RHP

What’s the Story? Campillo will be making his first start since 2005—a start that lasted only an inning and a third before Campillo was removed with an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. Back then, Campillo was a Mariner, but he signed with the Braves as a minor league free agent during last offseason. He’s been a boon to a struggling Braves bullpen thus far, demonstrating great control, which is certainly his strongest asset. It’s certainly not his stuff: his fastball comes in at only 85-87, and he’s also got a solid change-up and a big, looping curve.

Last Year: Campillo’s never made a start against the Mets, but he did pitch two innings of scoreless relief against the Mets during which he allowed no hits and one walk while striking out four.

What to Expect: Campillo’s a junkballer: his day will depend on his ability throw all three of his pitches for strikes and to keep batters guessing. If he misses too many of his spots, he’ll either put batters on base or catch too much of the plate and get crushed. Or both. If he can’t keep batters guessing, he’ll get crushed. Which is really the problem with pitchers who can’t rely on raw stuff to succeed—they have no margin for error. He won’t throw many fastballs at all, instead relying on his breaking stuff and changeup.

Game 3: Jair Jurrjens, RHP

What’s the Story? You can read my original scouting report on Jurrjens here.

This Year: Jurrjens and the Braves beat the Mets on April 25th, 6-3. Jurrjens went six innings and gave up three runs on two hits and four walks. All the damage occurred in the third inning when he followed a pair of singles with four consecutive walks.

What to Expect: Jurrjens has been everything the Braves could have hoped when they acquired him in the Edgar Renteria deal. He hasn’t walked too many and has racked up a fair number of strikeouts while doing a phenomenal job of keeping the ball inside the park (only one homer allowed this season). He keeps the ball down in the zone while relying mostly upon his fastball and changeup. He’ll throw a few sliders a game, almost always to righties, against whom he is marginally more effective—the changeup is an effective weapon against hitters on both sides of the plate.

Game 4: Tim Hudson, RHP

What’s the Story? You can read Hudson’s scouting report here.

This Year: Hudson’s made two starts against the Mets already. The first was a solid six innings during which he allowed three runs on six hits while walking none and striking out four as the Braves coasted to an 11-5 victory. The second was perhaps Hudson’s roughest outing of the year thus far: three innings, four runs, seven hits, no walks, one strikeout. Nine of the sixteen balls in play against Hudson were in the air, including six line drives. For Hudson to succeed, he’ll have to keep the ball on the ground.

What to Expect: Mets fans have seen enough of Hudson over the past three years to know what to expect. He’ll throw a lot of sinkers, using the pitch to set up his slider and splitter, which are both quality offerings. He’s coming off a poor outing where he gave up five runs over five innings to the Athletics. The A’s laid off the sinker, forcing Hudson to walk five batters and make two costly mistakes up in the zone.

Overall: I’m just not sure what the Mets really are yet. At times they can demolish a team like they did the Yankees on Sunday night while others they appear listless and punchless. It makes sense to expect the Mets to split this series with the Braves despite having the advantage in starting pitching in every game except Wednesday’s. I think they’ll beat their former teammate in the opening game of the doubleheader, but Campillo frightens me as only a soft-tosser who’s never made a start against the Mets can. I think the Braves will get the best of Pelfrey, and Santana will out-duel Hudson. And I’ll be just fine with a split at Turner Field.


2 Responses to “Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves Pitchers”

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  1. Comment posted by Dep on May 20, 2008 at 9:32 am (#698822)

    I’ll take a split. Lets do 3 of 4 though! push it metsies!

    good preview.

  2. Comment posted by Hubie on May 24, 2008 at 9:27 pm (#705767)

    I’ll take a split. Lets do 3 of 4 though! push it metsies!

    good preview.

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