A nice surprise, the Mets (13-11) took two of three from Atlanta despite some massive mismatches in the pitching match-ups. Furthermore, nothing was better than seeing Delgado hit two homeruns on Sunday—if he can get going, the starting lineup improves substantially. Next, the Pittsburgh Pirates (10-15) stroll into town, last in the NL Central. Almost nothing is going right for the Pirates this season. Outside of Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, and Ryan Doumit, no one is hitting particularly well. The starting pitching, which was looking like a strength in 2007, has been atrocious, and the relief corps hasn’t been any better.

Ian Snell (2-1, 4.45) opposes Johan Santana (3-2, 3.12) on Monday. They’re followed by Tom Gorzelanny (1-3, 8.46) and Oliver Perez (2-1, 3.62) on Tuesday and Zach Duke (0-2, 5.34) and Mike Pelfrey (2-1, 4.43) on Wednesday.

Game 1: Ian Snell, RHP

What’s the Story? Through his first 17 starts last year, Snell looked like he was ready to emerge as the ace Pittsburgh so sorely needed. He went 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA over 116.2 innings, while striking out 93, walking just 33, and giving up a mere nine homeruns. Unfortunately, he lost it from that point on. He went just 2-7 with a 4.83 ERA and saw his walk and homerun rates worsen. A slow start to this season might cause me to question whether he’ll ever be consistent enough to be a true stopper, but much of his early-season troubles are the result of an abnormally high BABIP (.358). Regardless, he’s still a very good pitcher, featuring a low-90s fastball he can dial up as high as 96, an outstanding slider, and a change-up that continues to improve.

Last Year: Snell made two starts against the Mets; only one went well for him. In the first, he let in six runs over four innings, giving up ten hits—including a homerun to John Maine. He didn’t walk anyone, however, and he struck out five. Snell pitched better in that second start, three weeks later. He went seven innings and allowed three runs on eight hits. Once again, he didn’t walk anyone, and he struck out seven.

What to Expect: One of the biggest keys to Snell’s improvement in 2007 was the development of his change-up. In the past, lefties have murdered Snell, but the change has allowed him to improve against them, though there’s still room for more progress. Despite the change-up, Snell still requires command over his slider, which can desert him at times. When he can throw the pitch for strikes, right-handed batters don’t stand a chance.

Game 2: Tom Gorzelanny, LHP

What’s the Story? Like Snell, Gorzelanny was off to an excellent start in 2007, going 9-5 with a 3.20 ERA with only 11 walks over his first 132 innings. Over his last 69.2 innings? Disaster. He went 5-5, but with a 5.17 ERA and 30 walks allowed. Also like Snell, he’s off to a poor start to open the season, but his troubles are clearly his own fault. He’s allowed 22 walks over 22.1 innings this season. To say his control has been bad would be like saying Carlos Delgado’s bat has been a tad sluggish during the first 23 games. When he’s on, Gorzelanny’s got solid stuff: a deceptive low-90s fastball, a sinker, a very good slider, an above average changeup, and a decent curveball.

Last Year: Gorzelanny was obliterated in his only start against the Mets in 2007. It was, in fact, the start that began his rough slide. He allowed six runs on seven hits and three walks before being taken out with one out in the third. Of those seven hits, four were doubles.

What to Expect: The general opinion around the league is that Gorzelanny’s hurt. His velocity is down to the mid-to-high-80s. He’s unable to locate any of his pitches with any regularity. His mechanics are clearly off. He’s throwing his slider about half as often as he did in 2007. All these signs taken together point to the potential for a serious arm injury, and I’m surprised the Pirates haven’t shut him down yet. With Gorzelanny pitching the way he has been, Mets hitters should be patient; there’s no reason to believe he’ll be around the strike zone too frequently.

Game 3: Zach Duke, LHP

What’s the Story? It seems like a long time ago that Zach Duke was the great hope of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In fact, it was 2005, when he went 8-2 with a 1.81 ERA as a 22-year-old. Since then, he’s mostly struggled, due to a terrible strikeout rate. While some pitchers can succeed with below average rates, few can survive with rates as low as Duke’s. Last season, Duke spent significant time on the disabled list with an elbow injury, the first arm injury of his career. He’s got a fastball that tops out at around 93, but usually sits around 90, a great curveball, and a decent change.

Last Year: Duke did not make a start against the Mets last season. He last made one September 17th, 2006. He threw eight shutout innings.

What to Expect: Duke’s really a finesse guy. You know he’ll stay around the strike zone and give batters plenty to hit. He won’t put many on via the walk, but his fastball’s not good enough to make him unhittable, either. Duke’s gameplan is to pound the lower strike zone with fastballs and come back with the curve to lefties when ahead in the count. Against righties, he’s forced to rely on his change-up, which is not as effective a pitch. The numbers back this up; over his career righties have hit .320/.366/.472.

Overall: The Mets certainly could sweep this one. Snell is the Pirates’ best pitcher, but he draws the short straw in facing Johan Santana. Meanwhile, Gorzelanny is a decent pitcher who’s really struggling, and I see no indication that leads me to believe the Pirates stand much of a chance against their former teammate, Perez. I do, for whatever reason, believe Duke will shut down the Mets. Maybe it’s the memory of his last start against the Mets or maybe it’s a lack of faith in Pelfrey, but I think the Bucs emerge victorious on Wednesday.