A split with the Nationals after a sweep at the hands of the Cubs is absolutely disappointing. The bats seem to be struggling some, and the bullpen cannot be trusted any further. What the Mets (11-10) could really use right now is an off day, an opportunity to give the relief corps a rest (not to mention an opportunity not to lose). Unfortunately, the Mets don’t have one until next Thursday, and they return home to host the Atlanta Braves (11-11) instead.

The Braves are certainly throwing their best against the Mets this weekend. The first game features rookie Jair Jurrjens (2-2, 3.20) and Mike Pelfrey (2-0, 3.18). Tim Hudson (3-1, 2.93) and John Maine (1-2, 3.57) have Saturday, while John Smoltz (3-1, 0.78) and Nelson Figueroa (1-1, 4.05) battle on Sunday.

Game 1: Jair Jurrjens, RHP

What’s the Story? Jurrjens, along with minor league outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, came over from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria deal. While Jurrjens put together some excellent numbers in the minors, many were skeptical how well his skills would translate to the big leagues, largely due to good-but-not-great strikeout and hit ratios. He makes up for it, however, with outstanding control. Furthermore, he has great stuff: a four-seam fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 but mostly sits 92-94, a two-seamer that comes in around 90—both heaters have great movement—plus a very good change-up that mimics the heater well and an above average slurve. If Jurrjens can be more consistent with his off-speed stuff, he could start racking up strikeouts.

Last Year: Jurrjens has never faced the Mets.

What to Expect: Jurrjens is off to a very promising start to his Braves career, and he’s been drawing praise from opposing players. His fastballs are both very difficult pitches to hit, thanks to their combination of velocity and natural movement. Instead, the Mets are going to have to hope that’s he’s having trouble with his slurve and change-up, as that will provide the Mets’ hitters with some opportunities. Otherwise, Jurrjens has above average stuff and outstanding command; I think he’ll prove troublesome.

Game 2: Tim Hudson, RHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Hudson here.

This Year: Hudson faced the Mets on April 5th, and really looked better than the final results might lead one to believe. He went six innings and allowed three runs, but the sinker was working brilliantly, as only five of the 25 batters he faced managed to get the ball in the air. Plus, he struck out four batters and walked none.

What to Expect: Hudson will do his usual: he’ll throw lots of sinkers and save the splitters and sliders as out pitches while mixing in the occasional change-up. Hudson’s pretty easy to predict. To succeed, he’ll need his fastball working well; it was in his last start, but in the previous start against Florida, his velocity was way down and the pitch lacked much of its usual bite. If the velocity is there and he’s keeping the ball down, it could be a very long day for Mets hitters, especially if he’s also locating his slider.

Game 3: John Smoltz, RHP

What’s the Story? You can find my original scouting report on Hudson here.

This Year: Smoltz made his first start of the season against the Mets, and he looked quite sharp despite only lasting five innings. He allowed only four baserunners—two walks, a single, and a double to Johan Santana, who is arguably the Mets’ best hitter right now—and struck out four.

What to Expect: I can’t recall where I saw this, but someone somewhere recently asked whether any pitcher has ever had better stuff than John Smoltz. I’m not sure. His fastball gets into the mid-90s, and both the slider and splitter are top-notch out pitches. And you know what? The curveball and change-up are both above average offerings, also. He’s a very difficult pitcher to face, because he can attack hitters any number of ways. If the slider is missing, he always has the curve. The change looks off? Hey, no worries, he has four other pitches. A even worse, Smoltz is off to an outstanding start.

Overall: The key for the Mets in this series might just be getting to the Braves’ bullpen, which is more than a little beat up right now. Closer Rafael Soriano is out, and his replacement Peter Moylan will likely miss a good chunk of the season also. That said, I’m very tempted to pick the Braves to sweep. I’ll pick the Mets to take one, and I’ll pick the third game. I don’t think Nellie Figgs will outpitch Smoltz, but I do think the Mets will get to that bullpen once. And my gut tells me it’ll be that game.