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April 25, 2008
Early Season Questions
Was the Lastings Milledge trade a good move to win in 2008? Maybe it was, to say nothing about the wisdom of such shortsightedness. Milledge is playing center field for the Nationals, where he is more valuable but would be blocked as a Met. He’s hitting a barely respectable .271/.333/.388 so far, but Ryan Church is belting a tune of .342/.398/.447, including a 1.022 OPS with two home runs against left-handers, an early season concern for the lefty bat. Brian Schneider is doing well enough, but with no power at all. I’m willing to give a little credence to the idea that he is exceptional defensively in some way, because I have no knowledge of the personal interaction between him and his pitchers. But if Schneider does possess a special catching ability, it is doubtful that it’s enough to make him an average catcher, let alone above replacement level. Still, stability at the position is worth something, especially when the Mets have so many other key players who are big injury risks. Overall, it’s possible that the trade improved the Mets in 2008, but it’s still way too early to tell. What about second base? In December of 2001 the Mets made a sweet trade with the Cleveland Indians for All Star and future Hall of Fame second baseman Roberto Alomar, who had just hit .336/.415/.541 with 20 home runs. Alomar was not good with the Mets, to say the least, and the suddenly flaccid second baseman was dealt to the White Sox in early 2003. The Mets mostly replaced him with Super Joe McEwing, who put up a 61 OPS+ in 119 games, including time at every position strike pitcher and catcher. The Mets also made room at second base for Marco Scutaro, Danny Garcia, Rey Sanchez and Jay Bell. If you are able to remember those forgettable appearances by such forgettable Mets, I commend you. Their terms as Mets are as zany and fun to recall now, as they were painful and pathetic at the time. That every one of them but Danny Garcia has been a viable starting infielder at some point in his career and they all met as Mets during that miserable 2003 is remarkable. So with that perspective, consider the Mets’ decision to sign Luis Castillo to a four year, $24 million dollar contract. The Mets seem to value stability above other considerations at second base, as with their catchers. But they usually look to veterans for that stability, and they are usually disappointed. Alomar was 34 when the Mets got him. Jay Bell was 37 and totally washed up. Rey Sanchez was 35. In 2004, plenty of youngsters played second—Jose Reyes, Ty Wiggington and Jeff Keppinger amongst them, but none stuck. Wigginton, subbing for the injured Reyes, was used to get Keppinger, a minor leaguer with good batting averages. When Reyes moved to short and Matsui to second, the unfortunate Keppinger was stashed in AAA, where he hit 337/.377/.455, but was unable to replace Matsui and his .255/.300/.352 performance. Not good enough to surpass Matsui, Chris Woodward or Jose Valentin on the depth chart, Keppinger was shipped to Kansas City in July 2006 for Ruben Gotay. Later, he was dealt to Cincinnati, where he has consistently hit over .300 with good patience and solid power for a second baseman. The veteran Valentin, was surprisingly good, but the Mets, valuing stability over youth again, re-signed the elderly Valentin for 2007. Even as Gotay, his replacement during an injury, rocked the ball, Valentin was given chance after chance when he came back. When he predictably fell apart, the Mets traded for Castillo and then re-signed him to a four-year deal after the season ended. Gotay was released in spring training. Sound familiar? With all this flux, the Mets want someone they can rely upon consistently. Unfortunately that someone is a 32-year-old with two surgically repaired knees who relies upon his speed to inflate his batting average, which is nearly powerless. Unfortunately, that second baseman has an undue reputation as an ideal number two hitter; and, unfortunately, Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph have not read the chapter in The Book about lineup construction. Less than 20 games into his new contract, Castillo was already asking for multiple days off every week. The Mets may call that stability; I call it a predictably bad investment. Is Willie Randolph going to get fired? I don’t know. Probably not. If he does, it will likely happen due to something unrelated to why he is a bad manager, like the team losing ten in a row. That’s just bad luck and the quick temper of New York. I’m not one of these guys who wants the manager to get fired whenever the team gets swept by the Marlins. And I think it’s disingenuous for writers to accuse fans of such shortsightedness. Each season is not a clean slate. The Mets’ management is building something, and Randolph’s tenure means something. His failure in 2006, followed by his failure in 2007, followed by his subsequent laying of blame on the players, followed by his continued mismanagement of the team in 2008—all of this leads me to my current opinion that he is a bad manager. Should he be fired? What good would it do? Who would replace him? Sadly, Manny Acta is gone. Still, it would be nice to have a manager who could get fired up from time to time, use his backup catcher as a pinch hitter, squeeze bunt, and bury Jorge Sosa at the bottom of the bullpen where he belongs. Are the Mets good enough to win the division? Yes! Even with the rapid decline of Carlos Delgado, the Mets still have three great hitters in David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, while Ryan Church and Moises Alou round out a good offense. Even Castillo and Brian Schneider are not black holes because they can draw walks and get on base. The Met pitching is even better; each starter gives the team a good chance to win each time he starts. Even Nelson Figueroa looks like he might have staying power that no one thought he had. Sure, it’s possible that the Mets will lose a major player like Wright, Reyes, or Santana to injury, and punt a near-full season’s worth of playing time to Anderson Hernandez or Ruddy Lugo. But player for player, the Mets have the best team in the National League East. There’s no doubt about it. 15 Responses to “Early Season Questions”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Well if you have to bury Sosa then Heilman needs a coffin right next to him. He has been just awful
What needs to happen is Carp needs to be called up and push Delgado which shouldn’t be to hard. I’ve said it last year and Ill say it this year Delgado is done.
Maybe we can teach Alou how to play first base when he gets back
Just wanted to say that John Niese pitched another steller game last night, his era for the season is now 0.71
Very much enjoyed this article John. Keppinger and Gotay, aside from being traded for each other, have something else in common - they were not given the chances that they deserved. I am glad the Mets traded Keppinger because it was clear he was going no where if kept in the Mets organization, and now he is getting his chance to shine. Hopefully that will happen for Gotay. I know that there isn’t a whole lot to back up my prediction but if AHern ends up getting to play regularly, I predict he will do quite well. Yes, his battng average is pathetic in New Orleans so far, but he also batted this poorly by this time last year, and he finished at .300. I don’t think it would be much of a step down offensively if Castillo goes down, and he will be better defensively.
I am no Willie fan, but I don’t see him being fired mid year, no matter how poorly he does. He’s better than Isiah though…What really makes me cringe though, is that Willie would probably look a bit better in 08 if my main man Heilman wasn’t getting bombed so often. Don’t know what’s happening with him. BCuster, maybe you could give him a pep talk.
Griffyusc, I don’t think that “pushing” Delgado will help - he doesn’t lack in motivation. He probably just doesn’t have it. But he’ll still have some good days. As Piazza said about himself several years ago “even a dyeing mule has a few good kicks left in him” (or something like that). But I would like to see Carp promoted to AAA. Let’s see what he can do there. Mets seem to have no confidence in Abreu (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him become a good hitting first baseman in the majors) so I don’t see Abreu as a reason to keep Gefilte fish down.
Let’s all remember that Carp missed a lot of time last year due to an injury. Even when he played he wasn’t doing well. Hence the reason he was not invited to Spring Training.
My point is that looking at Run EMC at this point as some sort of saving grace is based on small sample size. Carp is 21, turns 22 in June. Do we really expect him to come up and perform at this level in the major leagues? He is playing in AA after all, not AAA.
This team needs to STOP rushing prospects. Sometimes, like last year, injury issues cause it to happen. That is not the case this year. If something needs to be done with Delgado in a month or so, Omar will try to swing a trade before he calls up a youngster. Fans don’t react well to young players who come up and don’t perform up to their expectations. this has happened time and again over the years.
Niese does look very good, but again, any thought to calling him up is rushing it. This is his first full season in AA. Let him build his arm and command and control of his pitches. Maybe next year he will be ready. Again, he is 21, turns 22 in October. I love the name of his hometown (Defiance, Ohio).
Agreed (I think) Ed. At least I agree that this is what Omar will do. But, if Carp continues to hit nearly as well as he has so far this year, I don’t think challenging him with AAA pitching come early June.
Plus with a guy like Neise, there’s really no need to rush him as our pitching has been pretty good. Right now id put our 5 starters against any other in the NL.
Carp…..well ok Delgado is struggling but I still don’t think its necessary to rush a 21 year old that ISNT ready.
Wow, another write who feels to rip on Castillo. Its the flavor of the month. I’ve been saying all week that I hate the contract but for the short term Castillo will be fine. He’ll have his .360 obp steal 30 bases and play solid defense and take pitch after pitch at the top of the order. I think that is a pretty good 2 hitter. Am I missing something? Two weeks ago people were calling for Pagan to hit # 2 after he had a hot first week of the season. Good Lord!
Castillo is the least of the Mets problems at the moment.
I know it’s very early, but I’m extremely concerned with this team. There seems to be a negative energy hovering around the team and the fanbase. I’m not sure how it can be corrected either. The obvious answer is winning, but this team has played .500 baseball since the All Star Break last year… not sure what will make them wake up today and snap out of it without some type of change happening.
Perhaps Blastings Milledge can explain to me how Willie exactly failed in 2006? It was his first playoffs and the team did well. I know his decisions weren’t the best, but that team did overrachieve considering injuries suffered to two of the three top three starters before the postseason began…
Putting Cliff Floyd on the NLCS roster? Sending Cliff Floyd up to bat?
But no, the guy I blame for 2006 is Billy Wagner who choked throughout the playoffs. He pitches like he should and we’re in the world series.
Chinatown, I doubt Milledge is available for comments, but I think Future has it right. I’m not going to blame any manager for losing a short series, and maybe the Cardinals really had some sort of spark that year, but it sure didn’t look like it. In my analysis, Willie made a lot of mistakes then that he still makes now. It’s a pattern that has not changed, one that extends far beyond the small confines of 2008. That was my point.
Four years at $24 mil was a ridiculous investment, and Church in the two-hole looks to make the lineup stronger. But I agree with Shea. Castillo, at this point, is the least of this team’s problems.
Problem #1 right now is that the bullpen - as a whole - seems shaken and lacks confidence. I would argue that is is a carryover from last year, when they were clearly not a happy group with how they were being used, and suffered from a complete and humiliating melt-down that was a combination of their being exhausted from over-use and being mentally fried.
You can say that they’re getting paid and should shut up and pitch, but all of us know how we can perform best at our jobs, and when we are put in positions to fail, rather than succeed, it further affects our confidence and performance. It’s just how humans operate.
I don’t think that the guys in the ‘pen - who, it must be remembered, get to sit around out there and swap grievances for hours every day out of earshot of the manager - have any faith in Willie (and perhaps The Jacket?).