The Mets (10-7) took two of three from the Phillies, as expected, and now they face a pair of two-game series on the road before returning home to host Atlanta. First up is the Chicago Cubs (12-6). The Cubs are a red-hot team, having won six of their last seven games and 11 of their last 14. That said, the level of their competition hasn’t exactly been the highest: they’ve played the Astros, Pirates, Phillies, and Reds over that stretch, and they lost their series against the Phillies. Their offense is carrying their team so far, as the 4.71 runs per game they’ve allowed this year ranks fifth from the bottom in the NL. In fact, six of their positional regulars have OBAs of .393 or higher, impressive for a team that finished just ninth in the category last season. Mets pitchers need to be especially careful around Derrek Lee, who is hitting .364/.419/.714 in the early going.

John Maine (1-1, 3.70) and Carlos Zambrano (2-1, 3.04) take the mound on Monday, while Nelson Figueroa (1-0, 3.60) and Ted Lilly (0-3, 9.16) start on Tuesday.

Game 1: Carlos Zambrano, RHP

What’s the Story? 2007 was a disappointing year for Carlos Zambrano despite winning a career-high 18 games. His ERA was 3.95, the worst mark in his career, and the third straight season it had increased. His strikeout rate decreased 16.6%, and while his walks rate dropped slightly also, it was still a poor 4.20 per nine innings. Furthermore, his groundball percentage hit a new low of 46.8%. At his best, Zambrano is a groundball pitcher who can rack up strikeouts, a combination that’s pretty rare. He throws a four-seam fastball that can touch the mid-90s, a great sinker, a very good slider, an average splitter, and a decent change.

Last Year: Zambrano pitched twice against the Mets, throwing very well in his first start, and less so in the second. In the first, he went eight innings and allowed just one run on six hits and three walks. In the second, his command deserted him as he allowed seven walks in five innings. The Mets didn’t make him pay, however, as they managed just one run. In fact, the Mets needed everyone’s favorite punching bag, Ryan Dempster, to enter the game in the ninth in the midst of 2-2 tie to finally pull out the 6-2 victory.

What to Expect: Zambrano’s off to a great start, and the reason is his control. He’s walked just slightly over a batter per nine innings, which is an unreal rate for him—he’s never better than 3.47 before. More worrisome is that the groundball rate’s fallen again while the strikeouts have more or less held constant, indicating that Zambrano might be due for a fall to earth should his walk rate climb back to normal. Zambrano will throw a ton of fastballs, especially early in the count. He’ll resort to his off-speed stuff most frequently once he’s gotten a couple of strikes, the slider to righties and the split or change to lefties.

Game 2: Ted Lilly, LHP

What’s the Story? Ted Lilly enjoyed a great first season in Chicago after spending seven seasons in the American League. He went 15-8 with a 3.83 ERA and showed a great improvement in his walk rate, almost halving it. This year, he hasn’t been so lucky thus far: he’s been terrible, going 0-3 with a 9.16 ERA over his first four starts. His walk rate has been higher, his strikeouts less frequent, and his homerun rate has taken a turn for the worse, as he’s allowed almost two per game. Lilly’s got a wide assortment of pitches to choose from, and they’re all solid offerings: an 87-91 mile per hour heater, an excellent 12-to-6 curve, a slider, and an above average change-up.

Last Year: Lilly made one start against the Mets, on August 4th. He pitched very well, going seven and two-thirds innings while walking one and striking out eight. The only two runs he allowed came on a pair of solo homers from Moises Alou.

What to Expect: As I mentioned, Lilly has looked terrible this season, and the big reason has been location. He’s been completely unable to hit the corners of the strike zone with his fastball, forcing him to rely overmuch on the change. When he’s working well, Lilly’s approach on the mound is to mix things up as much as possible. He’s got four pitches, and, unlike a lot of guys, he’ll show you all four fairly often. Still, when he can’t locate the fastball, he can be hit hard, as he’ll fall behind in the count and be forced to throw fat pitches right down the middle of the plate.

Overall: One advantage the Mets won’t have over the Cubs this year is that the aforementioned Dempster is no longer their closer, having been moved back into the starting rotation. Last season, the Mets destroyed Dempster to the tune of ten runs over two and a third innings—that’s a 38.57 ERA for those of you scoring at home. I’m predicting a split here, and I’ll go with the hot hands, picking the Mets to lose to the Zambrano-led Cubs on Monday, while Nelson Figueroa’s feel-good story continues at Lilly’s expense on Tuesday. Now watch the opposite happen.