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April 4, 2008
  
Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves Pitchers
by: Alex Nelson on Apr 4, 2008 12:13 AM | Filed under: Articles

Despite winning two of three games from their opening series—the last by a laughable 13-0 score—the series still felt like a disappointment for the Mets. After all, it’s almost unthinkable to imagine losing the series, and the sole loss was further marred by the injury to Pedro Martinez. Still, the Mets mostly did their job and pushed around a team like they should have.

Now the Mets (2-1) can turn their attention toward an old nemesis, the Atlanta Braves (1-3), who they’ll play for three games in Atlanta. The Braves, who were the automatic winners of the NL East for over a decade haven’t finished higher than third since the Mets broke their streak back in 2006. The team’s hoping to reclaim their place in 2007, and many writers at ESPN think they will, Johan Santana or not. The Braves certainly have a high-powered offense, which includes Chipper Jones, Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, and others, but they’ll still need strong years and good health from their starting rotation, and another good year from their bullpen.

The opening matchup includes John Maine (0-0, —) and Atlanta ace Tim Hudson (0-0, 2.57), while Mike Pelfrey (0-0, —) and former Met Tom Glavine (0-0, 1.80) start the second game. Johan Santana (1-0, 2.57) takes the mound against John Smoltz (0-0, —) on Sunday.

Game 1: Tim Hudson, RHP

What’s the Story? After a down year in 2006, Hudson returned to form last year to go 16-10 with a 3.33 ERA. What was the big difference? Well, for one, he cut his walk rate in half, but he also dramatically reduced his homerun rate. Some of the latter is likely due to an improved sinker—he got a few more groundouts last year than 2006, but some of it was just luck as only 6.5% of his outfield flies became homeruns. Hudson’s lost a little bit of velocity over the years—he mostly hovers around 89 or 90—but he can still dial it up to 92 or so when he needs to. His sinker’s still excellent, and he still has three other pitches he can turn to: a nasty splitter, a good slider, and a decent change-up.

Last Year: Hudson made four starts against the Mets in 2007 and went 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA over 27 innings. While Hudson isn’t a strikeout pitcher to begin with, he only rung up eight Mets. Luckily, he walked just five also. He posted game scores of 73, 44, 45, and 54.

What to Expect: Expect Hudson’s infield to get a lot of work. Hudson will usually throw a lot of early-count fastballs and sinkers, while saving the splitter and slider as out-pitches. He’ll mix the changeup in here and there, though mostly to lefties. However, as Josh Kalk mentioned, in Hudson’s first outing he didn’t throw a single pitch that could be classified as a sinker according to Pitch f/x data. That doesn’t mean he didn’t throw any, but that none acted like one (they were flat). It’ll be interesting to see if that sink returns tonight.

Game 2: Tom Glavine, LHP

What’s the Story? Everyone should be familiar with Glavine by now as before re-joining the Braves this season he had been a Met for five years. If you’re a regular around here, you’ll also know that I have a fascination with how he pitches. He has no velocity on his fastball whatsoever (tops out at 87 and mostly hovers around 84), and it doesn’t move. His change is his best pitch, but it’s really nothing special. In recent years he’s added a cutter, and he also throws his curve more frequently then he used to, but that can still only be described as “very occasional.” He can’t strike batters out, he doesn’t post very good walk rates and he’ll give up a few homers. Quite frankly, Glavine looks like he shouldn’t be able to get a soul out. And Tom Glavine will go to the Hall of Fame.

Last Year: The Mets obviously didn’t face Glavine in 2007. In fact, the last time they did was September 28, 2002, a game that Glavine only pitched the first two innings of—it was an appearance just to stay fresh, since he was scheduled to pitch the opening game of the NLDS three days later.

What to Expect: There’ll be no surprises here; Glavine’s been doing pretty much the same thing a long time. You can expect lots of fastballs and lots of change-ups, and it’ll be nigh impossible to tell them apart. He will mix in the rare breaking pitch, and he’ll throw cutters to the inside corners to keep righties honest. He’s liable to leave a lot of balls up in the zone, and he’s not afraid to walk the occasional batter. In short, if he pitches well, you’ll be asking yourself “How are the Mets not beating this guy?” the entire time. But he knows how to pitch, and he knows when he can afford to give an inch and when he can’t.

Game 3: John Smoltz, RHP

What’s the Story? Smoltz, who has had his first start of the season somewhat delayed after experiencing tightness in his neck and shoulder two weeks ago, is the polar opposite of the only slightly older Glavine, even now. He can still throw in the mid-90s, and he has great secondary stuff: a great, mid-to-high 80s slider, an excellent splitter, a good curve, and a solid changeup. He’s a tough pitcher, a power arm who gets lots of strikes, doesn’t walk many, and doesn’t give up too many homers.

Last Year: Smoltz made six starts against the Mets and was really pretty mortal against them, going 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA and 28 strikeouts against 11 walks. He had an average game score of 50.5, with his best start coming on May 24, when he threw seven shutout innings.

What to Expect: When a guy has as many weapons as Smoltz does, it’s tough to expect exactly what he’ll do. He will pound the outside corner of the strike zone with fastballs to set up the slider, which is still one of the best pitches in the business. Against lefties, you shouldn’t be surprised to see him throw more change-ups and even more curveballs, which is more effective in those situations than the slider. I can’t imagine the Braves will let him throw too many pitches due to the tightness he felt in spring training, so the Mets should do their best to rack up his pitch count.

Overall: This is a tough series to predict. The Mets do have their two best pitchers in John Maine and Johan Santana taking the hill, but so do the Braves on the same days. My first instinct is to say that there’s a chance that Hudson-Smoltz might be the more effective duo at home, but I’m not positive either is at 100% at this point in the season, while both of the Mets pitchers have looked phenomenal this spring. And I’m sure Glavine will kill the Mets, not that I expect too much from Pelfrey. So I’ll pick the Mets to go 2-1, losing only the middle game. However, I can just as easily see 1-2, so I don’t have a ton of confidence in my prediction.


9 Responses to “Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves Pitchers”

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  1. Comment posted by Confused on April 4, 2008 at 12:29 am (#645418)

    your lack of faith in the big pelt is disturbing. the force is strong in that one.

    ha

  2. Comment posted by Welb on April 4, 2008 at 6:49 am (#645425)

    Braves could possibly sweep as they have had their focus on this series since early Febuary.And they have the pitching matchups to boot.But they will probably only take 2 out of 3…So the Mets leave Atlanta at .500

  3. Comment posted by Danny on April 4, 2008 at 8:49 am (#645433)

    I actually think the pitching matchups line up quite favorably for the Mets. The weakest link in the rotation gets set up against Tom “Fuck DIPS” Glavine. I think the Mets have a great shot to win on Saturday.

    I like the way the Mets are swinging the bats right now. The best two ATL pitchers are righthanded, and I really expect the Mets to murder righthanded pitching this year (not to mention Glavine isn’t your typical lefthanded starter that is a lot tougher on lefthanded hitters).

    I think the Mets have a good chance to sweep and make a definitive early statement. The Braves aren’t playing their best right now, and might be vulnerable.

  4. Comment posted by littlefallsmets on April 4, 2008 at 11:25 am (#645564)

    I look at the Braves pitching in this series and I say:

    “Hudson and two washed-up old guys”.

    Oh and their bullpen’s so tired that they had to flip a reliever into left-field for a batter and flip back… and they still lost. To the Pirates.

    Two outta three for the Mets.

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  6. Comment posted by Peter H on April 4, 2008 at 12:13 pm (#645604)

    We should be starting Santana on Saturday & Pelfrey on Sunday, which would allow Santana to start on Thursday against the Phillies. As it stands now, Santana is scheduled to miss both series against the Phillies, which is pretty dumb when you consider all the lefty bats Philly has.

  7. Comment posted by BravesFan888 on April 4, 2008 at 1:07 pm (#645642)

    As a hardcore Braves fan, I’d love nothing more than to see them sweep 3 games from all of you devil-worshipping Mets fans. But, to offer my own prediction for this upcoming series, I’ll have to make my way back to reality. At their best, the Braves arms could handle what’s become an aging and rapidly deteriorating Mets line-up, and the throng or bats in the Braves line-up could systematically wear down the Mets rotation. But I know my team, and I saw how they did what they’ve done best over the past two years, and thats find a way to lose 1-run games like it’s their jobs. The bullpen is once again a hodgepodge of spotty no names, and the bats seem to be all or nothing (12 runs one game, 1 the next). So, I’ll say Huddy has an impressive start tonight, but that the bullpen will let him down again in a close game. Smoltzy is probably going to come out looking to silence the critics, but I’m not sure if he can go past 6 innings realistically. Glav will give up a couple of runs and keep the Braves in it, but it all comes down to whcih bullpen (and which bats) show up. Based on what I’ve seen in the first 4 games…I say the Braves take 1 out of 3.

  8. Comment posted by Lister on April 4, 2008 at 2:15 pm (#645669)

    Smoltz and Glavine are going in this series and you’re labeling the Mets lineup as old and deteriorating. Look in the mirror, fuckface!

  9. Comment posted by Tim in LA on April 4, 2008 at 4:44 pm (#645876)

    This is the REAL best feature on MetsGeek.

    Hudson doesn’t scare me. Glavine/Pelfrey looks like a slugfest waiting to happen, so I’ll predict a surprise pitcher’s duel. And then Smoltz really is scary, but not as scary as Johan. I’m looking for a sweep…

  10. Comment posted by Welb on April 8, 2008 at 9:56 am (#648265)

    As usual the Met’s get swept by the wayside again….Maybe they need a new coach,cause Willie always was a Yankee…Can’t wait for the next series as it seems like the only team we can beat is the Met’s….Also maybe Jorge Sosa can start one game for you…lol….See ya soon….Go Braves!!

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