[Editor’s note: From time-to-time, the MetsGeek editors may come across a particularly poignant or informative user journal. When that happens, the journal will be highlighted via a promotion to the site’s main page. Today, we’d like to present this journal written by user paumanok. Enjoy!]

Part 1 of 4

There is nothing sweeter than signs that spring is right around the corner, especially if you are the Mets or one of their fans.

This winter was a long one for the Kings of Queens after an epic collapse in September; a long one, that is, until the acquisition of TBPiB. With one wave of the wand, Minaya the Magnificent caused what is, in effect, a case of collective amnesia among the orange and blue faithful. Well, perhaps amnesia is too strong of a term – at the very least he has given us something new to think about.

Discussions in New York City offices, bars and on blogs no longer revolve around whether Tom Glavine deserved the ire of New York. The new message is, forget about Tommy G’s unapologies, forget about Mota calling off Lo Duca and throwing a fastball, or Beltran seeing strike three. As they say here in Brooklyn, just fuhgeddaboutit.

Why? Because whether valid or not, in the hearts of many Metropolitan aficionados, those moments were table-setters. They prepared the destiny of the Mets in 2008 just as much as Reyes and Wright’s respective coming of age, and the acquisition of Pedro and Carlos. To many, if not most Met fans, the heartbreak of the last two years was not the result of a sadist Baseball God punishing the organization and its devout followers for acquiring Bobby Bonilla twice. Those two years of heartbreak and despair were a necessary plot point – like the third Act in a Shakespearean play – to set up and underscore the upcoming year, which promises to be one to remember.

So the question posed to the many Met fans (taking a cue from Mr. Obama, to audaciously hope) is this: Is the winter of our discontent over or will the freeze continue? In this article, I will preview (read: speculate) what the best, worst, and most realistic scenario is for each position player and pitcher in the starting rotation, and its effect on the team’s ultimate destiny. Also, “most realistic scenario” is not meant to be a split difference between the best and worst scenarios, although most of the time it will fall in between. Instead, it is an attempt at objectivity in spite of really, really, really wanting the NL pennant, and perhaps more.

So here we go:

Jose Reyes

Jose Jose Jose’s quick and light feet will weigh in heavily on how far the Mets go this season. Reyes’ legs are agents of change. Take a look at the numbers before and during his slump, and the corresponding win-loss record for the Mets. It is no coincidence that last year where the Jose went, so did the Mets. Perhaps that is why his personal collapse stands out just a bit more than the rest of the team’s September implosions.

Now while Reyes’ legs are agents of change, his smile is an indicator. You can go to a remote island, trade in your GPS internet-ready phone for a hammock, read nothing but classics all summer, come back in July, and you’ll know exactly where the Mets are in the standings just by looking at a recent picture of Reyes. If you see nothing but pearly whites, you’ll know the Metropolitans are right where they should be. If his facial features seem to have uniformly dropped an inch around their edges, you can dust off your Jimmy Rollins voodoo doll. Or worse – but funnier – your two-in-one Tom Glavine-John Smoltz voodoo doll. (To which we may have to add Mike Hampton, when all is said and done in 2008.)

Sunny scenario: Reyes will finally internalize the Willy Mayes Hayes philosophy and start doing push-ups every time he hits a fly ball. By the end of spring training, he’ll be hitting liners up the middle and when he really gets a hold of one, abusing the bottom of the walls in left and right center and translating that speed into stand-up triples. Reyes will channel and harness his energy effectively, keeping the threat of a steal alive in the pitcher’s mind on every delivery, yet not battering his body to have the somewhat dubious distinction of stealing half as many bases as Rickey Henderson. (Rickey Henderson says nobody steals bases like Rickey Henderson.) Reyes will still be the spark-plug to the offense, improve his on-base percentage even moreso this year by fashioning patience into an art, and still make pitchers balk a run home when it counts. On defense, his new-found maturity and deeper understanding of the game shine through. He attains near Omar Vizquel-like dependability on routine grounders. Reyes does not fire every throw to first since he knows exactly when he must. With the help of Castillo, the Mets’ defense up the middle rivals that of Fonzie/Ordonez and becomes a great resource for the well-aged (read: older) starting pitchers the Mets will start this season, namely Pedro and Duque, who will need to rely on a low pitch count and to go beyond the sixth inning on a regular basis. Reyes hits .300, steals 80 bases, and has enough left in the tank to rip through not only September, but October as well.

Cloudy scenario: Reyes starts off just the way he ended and his smile never returns. On offense, he starts pulling out early and will not heed the warnings of his colleagues. Instead, he gets more frustrated, tries to force himself out of the slump, and in the process only compounds the problem. By late May, the NL All-Star shortstop race is between Rollins, Tulowitzki and Ramirez. Castillo sees no fastballs, which leads to a precipitous drop in average like what happened to Lo Duca when he was moved out of the two-hole last year. The offense sputters like last year handing Santana four first-half one-run losses and diminishing his image and value as a stopper. By August, a Vegas line appears on how many flyball outs Reyes will make this year, including an over/under line and very favorable odds on his breaking that horrific baseball record. Worst of all, Reyes can’t leave it in the batter’s box. He fumbles routine grounders and on a cool afternoon in September in the middle of a three-way pennant race, he lallygags his way to first and Willy pulls him from the game and chastises him in the dugout in plain view of the SNY cameras, and in the post-game conference. The Mets are not in first, Willy’s head is in the guillotine according to the Post, and Reyes becomes deservedly or not, becomes the scapegoat of a third failed season.

Realistically: Damn that was bleak, but, in my opinion, very unlikely. Talent like that can’t hide for an entire season, and if Reyes gets off to a slow start, there are plenty of veterans (more on that later) to help him regain his focus. He’s a pony and you can’t keep a good pony down, well unless you shoot him for humane reasons. Jose Jose Jose will resound in the ugly, worn concrete halls of Shea, over the sound of jet engines passing overhead all season long. He may not improve his patience as much as we want, but the lesson of September 2007 will serve to push along his maturation process. In Spanish there is a saying: no hay ningun bien que de mal no venga: there is always good that comes from bad. More likely than not, Reyes’ numbers will resemble last year’s, only that he will be more even-keeled. On this team, consistency from Reyes is more valuable than any slight statistical improvement.

Luis Castillo

Sunny: Luis improved his offensive production after leaving Minnesota and coming to the Mets. You can chalk it up to coming to a less-competitive league, but really the challenge always falls on the hitter to adjust, not the pitchers, so there’s something more to it. Perhaps the formula all along was less Minnesota and more Johan. This season, Luis reunites with Johan and the twins take over New York. There have been many indications that Santana’s mostly poor second-half performance is attributable to the trading deadline trade of Castillo, as that symbolized the Twins’ throwing in of the towel. Luis comes to spring training hungry for another title (he has two with Florida) and his professionalism and mood become contagious. He shows Reyes the value of consistency, truly embraces the Mets’ cause as his own, and becomes a lead-by-example veteran. Less fluid in his knee also translates to greater mobility on defense, which returns him to the glory of his gold glove years, giving the Mets a fifth potential gold glover and turns the middle of the field into a veritable bear trap. On offense, he becomes the number-two hitter the Mets looked high and low for (sometimes really low) in 2006. He wears out pitchers by fouling off good pitches, gives Reyes plenty of chances to take second, and makes sure the big boppers have something to bop. His improved knee even allows him to try for bunt singles, ensuring ducks on the pond. Luis becomes such a reliable contact hitter that Willy implements that funny thing he heard about at the Winter Meetings: the hit and run – more often than anyone could have anticipated. All of a sudden, the Mets running game has a new dimension.

Cloudy: It was the other knee that had to be drained. Or he hits a wall since 34 is the new 45 – 45 as in your Dad the 45-year old who plays pick-up with two (2) knee braces, not Roger “throw-a-bat-at-Piazza-so-this-is-what-McNamee-meant-by-roid-rage” Clemens, the 45-year old. Anyway, Luis loses enough range at second that Willy sees enough merit in platooning Gotay. Consequently, the lineup loses the transition piece from Reyes to boppers. Castillo, instead of becoming a role model for Gotay, Reyes and to some extent Wright, reinforces bad habits in the young players, including disinterest in the game (Hey Bobby Bo, beat my royal flush), which leads to tension in the clubhouse and discord among teammates. Worst of all, Johan defends Castillo to a more veteran group consisting of Pedro, Delgado and Alou, who do not appreciate the affront, and Martinez’s ego, more hurt by being the number two starter than previously let on, throws a sloppy cross at Santana who ducks and punches Martinez’s right shoulder while simultaneously loosening an abductor on his left hand’s little pinky. Season over.

Realistically: My educated guess is there is enough gravitas on this team to keep that latter situation from unfolding. However, I do not think Castillo returning to old form is in the cards, so to speak. His knee should hold up for longer periods of time but probably won’t allow him greater agility or mobility. He has a short swing, a slap swing from the left side, so any reduction in power may only manifest itself as a slight dip in batting average due to lost bat speed, a luxury contact hitters have in their later years. So, do not expect the decline to be so great as to merit a platoon with Gotay. Any platoon with Gotay will most likely be due to injury or a nagging discomfort in Castillo’s knee. Remember, they are both switch hitters, which allows Randolph one less variable to consider in shuffling. So as far as his game numbers go, expect more or slightly less of the same. The largest change in Castillo may be that he will make the Mets’ mission his own and assist in the inculcation of Mr. Santana. If the newcomers feel as invested as those Mets who had to see Yadier Molina chug his chubby ass around the bases in the 2006 NLCS, then this singularly-minded team will be something to behold.

David Wright

Sunny: David turns into Goliath. David comes into the season as the face of the team, and to some extent a new source of motivation. Hardly two years removed from the ignominy of carrying Cliff Floyd’s bags – stupid rookie – Mr. Wright is the warm little center that the life of this team crowds around. So without the fiery Lo Duca, David now says the right thing in public, but says the right thing in the clubhouse, too. The vets then take the banner from the young third baseman and institutionalize and replicate his desire to win. On the field, he’s a monster. He stops waving at those outside breaking balls, and with increased strength at the prime-approaching age of 26, he can be confident in his ability to turn on the inside pitch while looking to drive the outside pitch. The benefits compound and the face of the Mets transforms into combination Silver Slugger/World Series MVP. Shades of Gary Carter?

Cloudy: There is enough talent here to keep my imagination in check. David turned in a career year last year and to expect much improvement may be a little unrealistic. Many see a high ceiling, but some do not think his filling out will mean more power and more homeruns. What it could mean is losing a step on the basepaths, meaning he might have seen his first and last 30/30 season of his career. As for his fielding, many believe his Gold Glove was markedly undeserved, and this year could be the year he shows his true defensive colors. Mr. Wright can overcompensate for his faults and become less accurate with the arm. One of these throws draws Delgado off the bag, and as is his fashion, as Delgado attempts to gingerly apply the tag while the runner is barreling down the line, he breaks his wrist. Off the field, and the truly worst case scenario, D-Wright’s hope and resilience evaporate as the team spirals, and his relationship with the media crumbles. After four years of experience, David Wright’s name has become synonymous with unfulfilled expectations and a legacy of coming up short.

Realistically: D-Wright may be more than the face of the Mets. He also personally shares the team’s greatest collective strength: no apparent weaknesses. David will hit for a slightly better average, about the same in homeruns, but have less steals. His throwing accuracy will improve, and the substance of his leadership will be more noticeable. While it actually is hard to imagine D Wright topping last year in numbers, there is a good chance that if he does not get the slow start he did last year, he will. But for this team, players like Wright and Beltran only need to hold the line, do what they did last year, and as long as he keeps drinking that Vitamin Water he is more than capable of doing that. He will in the end, further convince himself and those around him that the number three hole on the New York Metropolitans lineup card was tailor-made for him.

Parts two, three, and four to come.