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February 26, 2008
  
Roster Musings, Part II

Pedro Martinez: His return from surgery last season was very impressive. He showed that he still has that ridiculous changeup, an excellent curveball, and superior command which allowed him to pileup the strikeouts (24 strikeouts in his last 18 innings of 2007) despite a mediocre fastball. Pedro has always been a very good pitcher—at least when healthy—and there’s no reason to expect that to change now. A repeat of 2005 is not likely but not completely out of the question, either.

Juan Padilla: It would be a great story for Padilla to emerge as an important part of the Met bullpen in 2008. He was great for the Mets in 2005, but his stuff was average at best. I do not expect Padilla to have much of an impact for the Mets in 2008.

Angel Pagan: I found the acquisition of Pagan somewhat perplexing, as I do not think he adds much to a team that already employs Endy Chavez as a fourth outfielder. It would make sense to have Pagan on the roster as a backup centerfielder, late inning defensive replacement, and pinch-runner, but Endy already does these things for the Mets. I don’t expect him to make the Opening Day roster.

Mike Pelfrey: His 2007 season was largely a disaster. His record in the majors was horrid, and he didn’t exactly dominate in Triple-A, either. Pelfrey did show Met fans a glimpse of his potential on September 1st when he one-hit the heavy-hitting Braves over six innings of work. In that start, Pelfrey was able to use his slider very effectively and struck out seven hitters as a result. There has been some talk of letting Pelfrey start the season in the rotation, but I think that is a mistake for two reasons. First, it would not hurt Pelfrey to spend some time polishing his game in Triple-A. More importantly, I think a big league club should enter a season with the expectation that at least one of their starters will not be healthy the entire year and prepare accordingly. There is no doubt in my mind that Pelfrey will pitch in the majors at some point this season. Letting him pitch in New Orleans is the best way to keep somebody sharp in case of an injury.

Oliver Perez: Perez wasn’t as good as his 3.56 ERA last season indicated last season. He allowed more than his fair share of unearned runs, and I think a 4.00 ERA would be a more realistic reflection of how he pitched last season. The Mets are going to have to make a decision regarding how much they are willing to pay Perez after the season, because he is likely to get a huge deal if all he does in 2008 is put up his 2007 numbers. Perez can dominate a game as well as anyone when he is on, and there’s always a chance that he finally becomes that perennial Cy Young candidate. That said, he is inconsistent and can be tough to watch when he isn’t throwing strikes consistently, and I am not sure it’s smart to pay a pitcher like an ace with the hope that he becomes one. I don’t doubt that there will be more than one team willing to gamble on Perez, but I am not sure the Mets would not be better off letting him go and using that money to sign players at other positions.

Stephen Register: Register’s a Rule-5 pick and one I don’t think will make Opening Day roster. The Mets are likely to offer him back to the Rockies with the hope that they will not want him back. Whether he is in the organization or not, I doubt he will make much of an impact in 2008.

Jose Reyes: Jose’s 2007 season was considered a disappointment, but I think that’s overly negative. Reyes showed the ability to get on-base consistently despite not hitting for a high batting average. He is a great fielding shortstop and is probably the best baserunner in baseball. That’s a pretty good year in my eyes. I expect Reyes to hit for a higher average than he did last season, transforming him into a more complete player. How much better his season is will depend on his ability to hit for power, which he did quite well in 2006.

Olmedo Saenz: I think this was a very interesting pickup by Omar Minaya despite Saenz’s advanced age. From 2004-2006, Saenz absolutely crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .315/.393/.618 batting line in over 250 plate appearances. However, Saenz posted only a .693 OPS against lefties last year, though that was due to an absurdly low BABIP of .128. He did hit three homers in only 57 AB against lefties in 2007 and walked more than he struck out against them, which might suggest that he has not completely lost the ability to mash lefties. He could be a good fit as a pinch hitter and a platoon partner for Delgado. If the Mets are willing to gamble on Church’s ability to hit lefties, it might make more sense for them to carry Saenz rather than Easley, especially if Gotay proves capable of backing up all three infield positions.

Duaner Sanchez: The biggest difference between the 2006 Mets and the 2007 Mets was their respective bullpens. The 2007 Mets posted a 107 OPS+, which was actually one point better than the 2006 Mets. The 2007 rotation posted a 97 ERA+ while the 2006 rotation posted a 93 ERA+. Unfortunately, the bullpen posted a 4.03 ERA after compiling a sparkling 3.28 ERA in 2006. Early in 2007, when Ambiorix Burgos and Joe Smith were doing good impersonations of Sanchez and Chad Bradford respectively, the Mets’ relief corps looked like it was going to be even better than 2006. But when Burgos faltered and eventually got hurt and Smith began to struggle mightily, the bullpen never really recovered. Personally, I think the Mets should have acquired a reliable setup man this offseason but it looks like they believe that Sanchez will be able to fill that role once more.

Johan Santana: He is a better pitcher now than Pedro was when he signed with the Mets prior to the 2005 season. Considering that Pedro had a Cy Young caliber season in 2005, there is no reason for Santana to pitch at least that well in 2008. 200-220 IP and a 2.50-2.75 ERA is my prediction. I would not be surprised if he is even better than that.

Brian Schneider: Who posted a higher OBP in 2007, Brian McCann or Schneider? The answer is Schneider. I don’t mean to compare Schneider to McCann since the latter hit for much more power and had a down season in 2007 after an incredible 2006. I just wanted to make it clear that I do not think Schneider is a player that is completely without use. He posted a .326 OBP last season despite a .255 BABIP. He can draw a walk and is a good defensive catcher. If the Mets are willing to give Ramon Castro significant playing time, there is no reason why the Mets can’t get solid production from the position.

Scott Schoeneweis: Show is what he is at this point in his career: a LOOGY. Simply put, lefties do not hit for any power against him—they’ve slugged a mere.300 against him the last five seasons. That’s actually quite incredible. He is overpaid and righties murder him, but there is no reason he can’t help the Mets in 2008 if used properly. The key is for the other relievers in the bullpen to pitch well enough so Willie is not tempted to use Schoeneweis in a more expanded role.

Joe Smith: Despite his uneven 2007 season, the Mets should still be quite high on Smith. Like many young pitchers, he struggled with his control in 2007, but there are certainly reasons for optimism. Smith struck out more than a batter an inning while maintaining a superb 2.86 groundball-to-flyball ratio. He might not make the Opening Day roster because the Mets will probably prefer veterans, but I expect Smith to play an important role in the bullpen by the end of the season.

Jorge Sosa: Sosa pitched surprisingly well for the Mets in 2007, posting a respectable 4.59 ERA in 14 starts, giving him a 4.01 ERA over his last 47 starts. However, his role in 2008 will likely be as a long reliever. Randolph doesn’t like to use a true swingman, but I think Sosa could thrive in that spot. Given the Mets’ lack of starting pitching depth, I think it might be wise to have Sosa make some starts, even if he is used primarily as a reliever.

Brian Stokes: Stokes has a big fastball that can reach the mid-90’s. Unfortunately, that’s just not enough to thrive in the big leagues.

Jose Valentin: Valentin is probably one of the more underrated players of his era. Over much of his career, he played excellent defense and had superb power for a middle infielder. He had a great 2006, and he also seemed to have a very positive influence on Reyes as Jose has played his best baseball with Valentin at second base. He and Gotay are probably battling for the backup infielder job, and I have a feeling Gotay will be given every opportunity to win it, likely send Stache to New Orleans.

Jason Vargas: He had a tough 2007, struggling in Triple-A while looking downright abysmal in his two starts for the Mets. He had surgery to remove some bone chips from his elbow with the hope that he’ll be able to re-gain some velocity on his fastball. Vargas still could have a future as a starting pitcher considering he has had some success at the big league level and he is still relatively young, but I doubt he will get that opportunity with the Mets. He is currently the seventh- or eighth-best starting option the Mets have. He could see time as a long reliever if Sosa struggles or he could make an appearance or two as an emergency starter. Honestly, the best the Mets and Vargas can hope for is that he pitches well enough in AAA that another team might give up a middling prospect for him.

Billy Wagner: He is still an excellent closer and was having a great year before injuries slowed him down. He does not throw in the high-90’s anymore but there’s still plenty of stuff to get the job done. The Mets need to baby him a little more to keep him fresh for the entire year. More innings from the rotation and increased bullpen depth should allow for that.

Matt Wise: I am not particularly high on him but I think he can soak up some innings. He will likely begin the season on the team, but I expect him to be slotted behind Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman and Feliciano. In my ideal bullpen, Smith takes Wise’s roster spot at some point during the season to give the Mets a dominant ROOGY.

David Wright: The Mets’ late season collapse probably cost Wright the MVP in 2007. Wright improved his defense (although he did not deserve the Gold Glove) and posted his first 30-30 season. If Wright repeats last year’s season and the Mets are as good as I expect them to be, there is an excellent chance that Wright becomes the first MVP in Met history.


2 Responses to “Roster Musings, Part II”

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  1. Comment posted by Dep on February 26, 2008 at 11:17 am (#616917)

    Carlos Beltran will win MVP.

    he will get 1,000 extra points for bold predictions.

  2. Comment posted by SoCal Metfan on February 26, 2008 at 4:29 pm (#617343)

    Thanks for the accurate evaluation of Show. I’m not a huge fan or anything, but it’s been a pet peeve of mine when people (many on this site) complained that Show was worthless. The fact of the matter being that a LOOGY as effective as Show does have value, in fact quite a bit of value, when used properly.

    I pretty much agree with all your feelings on every player so far in these two articles. I guess there isn’t a whole lot to quibble over, the way the rosters are currently set up.

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