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February 22, 2008
Comparison: Mets and Mariners
Ah, spring. While it snows in my mountain home, frivolous articles are being written in Florida and Arizona about how so-and-so is in “the best shape of his life,” or Johnny Jones is a gamer who leaves everything on the field. Ben Shpigel writes, “If Carlos Delgado led quietly and by example and if Julio Franco consciously took on the role of clubhouse sage, then [José] Valentín’s style sits in the middle,” thereby creating a hierarchy of tired baseball clichés. Marty Noble calls Brian Schneider “the Mets’ primary offseason acquisition until Johan Santana took that distinction,” “a catcher’s catcher,” proud of being “a catcher who hits, rather than a hitter who catches.” Carlos Beltran says something to give the reporters something, and then everyone responds. Ambiorix Burgos is a flake. Moises Alou can hit. So I thought I’d produce my own frivolous column and ask, “How are the Mets like and not like the Seattle Mariners?” Both teams won 88 games last year, and each team traded for a front-line starter this offseason. The Mets, of course, gave up less and got theirs to sign an extension, but the Mariners got theirs two years before entering free agency. So how come Baseball Prospectus projects the Mets to win 96 games this year, and Seattle only 73? First, the Mariners’ Pythagorean Record last year was 79-83, while the Mets’ was 86-76. To take 88 games as a baseline for both teams would be a mistake. Second, the Mariners were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball last year, ranking 27th in Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER), at .678. The Mets were fourth, at .707. DER is the percentage of batted balls in play that were turned into outs; it is the inverse of BABIP, or 1.000-BABIP. While the Mets defense might even get a little better with Ryan Church and not Shawn Green in right field, the Mariners failed to get better. What the team should have done was retained Adam Jones, a superior defender and used him in a corner outfield spot, moving the miserable defensive player Raul Ibanez to DH, where he would displace Jose Vidro. Vidro is the Mariners’ version of Luis Castillo, except he can’t play defense anymore. The Mariners are in love with Vidro’s bat, but his .394 slugging percentage should just be unacceptable for a DH. Vidro, who hit .314 last year with an excellent .381 on-base percentage, benefited from an inordinate amount of infield hits to the tune of a .337 BABIP. Jones, who hit .314/.382/.586 last year as a 21-year old in AAA last year, stayed in the minor leagues most of the season. Mariners fans cried that he should be playing every day while Ibanez moved to DH, but it didn’t happen. Meanwhile, in New York, the Mets went with Shawn Green when Lastings Milledge provided a better option. Both teams traded their young outfielders in the offseason, but at least the Mets got a suitable replacement in Church; the Mariners seem to think Brad Wilkerson is good enough to do the job. The Mets also benefit from the return of Pedro Martinez and Duaner Sanchez, giving them some depth, while the Mariners have to hope for big years across the board from all their players, including “King Felix,” their 21-year old phenom, and Adrian Beltre, their mystery at third base. Of course, neither team has fantastic depth, either on the bench or in AAA. The Mariners are attached to guys like Willie Bloomquist and Miguel Cairo, while the Mets hope for more good times from Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley, and Ruben Gotay. But the Mets have young players who can still get significantly better, including David Wright, Jose Reyes, Oliver Perez and John Maine. The Mariners’ best players, besides King Felix, are getting old: Ibanez, Ichiro (never a favorite of projection systems), Richie Sexson (Think the Mets have first base problems? Sexson earned over $15 million last year to hit .205/.295/.399), and Vidro—all over 30. And if you think the four-year, $24 million contract the Mets gave Luis Castillo was bad, check out the Mariners. They gave four years and $48 million to Carlos Silva, he of the career 3.76 K/9 ratio whom PECOTA projects to have a 4.97 ERA in 2008. Two teams. Identical records. Both “mortgaged the future” to compete today. One team made the wrong choice. 11 Responses to “Comparison: Mets and Mariners”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Since when did the Mets have less than a stellar bench? I must have missed the memo….
Thanks, enjoyable article, John..
I would have written …”may also benefit”…Early reports sound promising, but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if he returns to the form of the first couple of months of 06.
Let’s not forget Adrian Beltre. He’s one of their most important hitters and seems to be coming on stronger in the latter stages of his absurd contract and he’s still relatively young. Jose Lopez is a talented, young second baseman who has not shown consistency but has, on occasion, shown ability to hit for power and average. And Kenji Jojima is no slouch behind the plate.
Well, I think you are going a little overboard bashing the M’s there, and I would definitely take the “over” on the M’s winning 73 games by the BP.
Pitching:
Felix-Bedard-Silva-Bautista-Washburn
Assuming you get Felix Hernandez and Bedard to stay healthy all year, you have one of the best rotations in the AL with that rotation. Sure, Silva is not worth the money he got, but he will eat up innings and win games for the Mariners. The defense will hurt him, but their 3-5 is capable of winning 10-15 games each and that is hardly a horrible 3-5 for a rotation that could have a young lefty and righty that could each win 18 games next year if things break well for them.
Bullpen:
JJ Putz - Sherrill - Mateo - Green
That is a solid core 4 that honestly is better than what the Mets can field right now with Wagner - Hielman - Feleciano - Show. JJ Putz is a significant upgrade over Wagner right now being rock solid for the Ms the past couple of years a K machine and 6 or 7 years younger than Wagner. Those other three guys are all good arms to have in games that simply did not blow a whole lot of leads last year.
Offense:
While the M’s lack a “big bat” in their lineup and are prone to be pitched around, they do have a lot of guys that can get on base on cause havoc. Ichiro-Vidro-Beltre-Ibanez-Guillien-Kohjima is not exactly a terrible offense. If they just had that big bat in the 4 slot instead of a black whole in Sexson they would actually be a fairly dominate lineup.
Defense
You summed up their defensive issues nicely and that is a big problem with their club, but I find it hard to dismiss the M’s as a 73 win team with the rotation and pen that they have assembled. They will be competing for the West and I actually think they will be the winner out West next year.
Another note, I think when looking at the win totals for the Ms next year, you have to factor in the steps backwards taken by the A’s and Texas in their division. The Ms could be in a division with two sub 70 win teams and to me the Angels have taken a step back as well.
sherrill’s gone along with jones. guillen’s in kansas city. johjima is not a good hitter, and vidro is a horrible hitter. they’re going to try to play brian wilkerson as their starting right fielder. ichiro, beltre and ibanez are their only above average hitters. they have a terrible offense. their pitching is okay, yes, but their defense is so horrible that it won’t matter much. especially since the back end of the rotation allows so many balls in play. i would guess the a’s and rangers are both more likely to finish ahead of the mariners than they are to win fewer than 70 games.
The Seattle rotation is basically 2 #1s and 3 #5s, and we saw how well that worked for Atlanta last year. Also, their offense is highly dependent on batting average - nobody on the team draws a lot of walks (and Johjima, Lopez, and Betancourt COMBINED for 50 walks last year), and only Beltre and Ibanez had more than 50 extra-base hits.
Beltre is extremely streaky. His OPS by month last year:
April .678
May .918
June .540
July .596
August .856
September .691
This write up will come back to haunt us John. I hope you’re happy. Wait until the the M’s come into Shea this year and sweep us. It will be your fault ;-)
I don’t see how the Mets bench provides great depth. It’s not terrible, okay. But Damion Easley and Endy Chavez are the team’s fourth and fifth outfielders? Ruben Gotay is the backup shortstop? Or is that Jose Valentin or Damion Easley? Can they play shortstop anymore.
Okay, it’s really not that bad.
As for the Mariners, I wasn’t really trying to sum up their roster. They have some good players I haven’t mentioned, like SS Yuniesky Betancourt (young and getting better) and 2B Jose Lopez (last year was a step back but he should improve), but they aren’t David Wright and Jose Reyes.
I also didn’t mention their fantastic bullpen, part of which was compromised with the inclusion of 30-year old independent league acquisition and great story George Sherrill in the Bedard trade. We don’t know what the Orioles wanted with him, but he was excellent for the Ms last year. But still their best three are better than the Mets’.
I like Adrian Beltre. He gets a bad rep. But he’s the Mariner version of Carlos Delgado: horribly inconsistent.
John are you writting for the U.S.S. Mariner? Its funny because for the past few months they have been dreading the Bedard trade, and never ceasing to point out that ZIPS has the A’s finishing higher than the M’s. Yeah, the A’s, I threw up in my mouth a little too when I read that, but they are pretty adamant about that.
The A.L. West race will be fun to follow. I find myself agreeing with you on almost everything you have written here, but I am not sure if I can think for myself on this subject after being indocterinated by the U.S.S. Mariner with respect to all things Marniers.
Mateo and Sherrill are gone. I’d say Putz is better that Wagner right now but, aside from that, our bullpen is better.