2006 was a big step for Jose Reyes. That one glorious season, in which he went .300/.354/.487, launched Jose Bernabe from out-making scrub to leadoff wonder. Baseball Prospectus remarked in its 2006 annual, “Reyes would do less damage at the bottom of the order, as everybody except Willie Randolph seems to grasp.” It was hard to disagree after a year that saw Reyes OBP .300 and lead the league in outs.

After 2006, it seemed the sky was the limit for Reyes. Sure, he was fast. But he had shown that he had power, too. This was due to his increased skill at recognizing different types of major league pitches. In its 2007 annual, Baseball Prospectus wrote, “Reyes did not become more selective in the sense of working the count; rather, his pitch recognition improved, leading to his guessing correctly on a greater percentage of pitches that he saw. The results represent the maturation of a ballplayer rather than a one-year change of philosophy, and are thus much more likely to be sustained.” That praise aside, PECOTA predicted a .287/.330/.436 for Reyes in 2007.

Indeed, 2007 was a step back for “the most exciting player in baseball.” He hit .280/.354/.421, matching his OBP by drawing more walks than ever but hitting fewer triples and home runs.

          GPA   P/PA     LD%   BABIP     GB%    IF/F    HR/F
2005    0.237    3.6   19.6%   0.298   47.2%    8.1%    3.8%
2006    0.287    3.6   20.9%   0.320   45.2%   11.8%   10.6%
2007    0.270    3.7   18.5%   0.302   41.6%   13.4%    5.5%

In these statistics from The Hardball Times, we see that Jose did indeed see slightly more pitches per plate appearance in 2007. He wasn’t especially unlucky, as his expected BABIP based on batted ball types was about .304. What made the difference between ’06 and ’07 was a declining ground ball rate and shorter fly balls, meaning more infield pop-ups and fewer home runs. Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times covered this very topic in a December 2007 article. There, he concludes that Reyes doesn’t need to hit more ground balls; he needs to turn his fly balls into line drives.

Another aspect of Reyes’ season to consider is that it started out well and ended terribly. The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2008 notes that Jose was hitting .340/.415/.545 on May 14th; the rest of the year, he hit .263/.336/.385. From April to September, Reyes’ line drive rate dropped from month-to-month as his fly ball rate increased. As Jessica Bader noted, his BABIP was also split between the first and second half: .343 to .258. So what happened?

One or more of the following factors are possible: (1) it was just an extended slump; (2) pitchers caught up with him; (3) all the stolen base attempts made him tired. 4) Reyes was regressing to his true level of ability. We would like to dismiss the fourth option right off the bat, but, sadly, it remains a possibility. But at 24, Reyes could still be far from his peak. That he could peak at the age of 27, 28, or 29 means that, at 24, he is still learning and making adjustments, making the first two options more credible. Finally, it’s possible that all the wear and tear of stealing 78 bases, being caught 21 times, and diving back to the bag on numerous other occasions had a detrimental effect on Reyes that showed itself in a poor late-season performance. Whatever the case, the Mets would do well in coaching Reyes to tone down the base-stealing attempts.

How can we be sure that Reyes ultimately will be better than he was in 2007? David Pinto of Baseball Musings wrote recently, “I’m wary that Reyes is a superstar. His career numbers right now are .284/.330/.426, good for a middle infielder but nothing outstanding. If you can get Johan Santana for that, why not?” Yet the Mets refuse to include him in such a deal.

Why? Because he’s more than just a speedy, okay-hitting, good-fielding shortstop. He’s something special. As Tim Marchman of the New York Sun pointed out, Reyes’ rapid improvement in his ability to draw a walk is nearly unprecedented: “Take… the 43 post-integration shortstops 25 or younger who have drawn 30 or fewer walks while qualifying for the batting title, as Reyes did in 2005. Of them, all of three went on to draw as many as 70 walks in a season even once — Robin Yount, Tony Fernandez, and (of all people) Julio Franco, who averaged 2,665 hits apiece in their careers. None of them improved this aspect of their game with anything like the speed with which Reyes has.” More startlingly: “Reyes is on pace for 85 walks and 78 steals [this was July 24th—Reyes actually finished with 77 walks and 78 steals]. Since 1947, two players have done that at any age. One of them was Tim Raines; the other one was Rickey Henderson. Each of them was the best player in his league for years and years; each of them played left field, not shortstop.”

2008 Outlook:

             AVG     OBP     SLG   HR   SB   BB   SO
ZiPS       0.285   0.356   0.444   15   71   74   79
CHONE      0.293   0.355   0.438   12   67   60   72
Bill James 0.289   0.348   0.442   14   69   59   75

It’s quite clear from these projections that the experts aren’t bullish on Reyes’ rapid improvement. Nor should they be; Reyes still has a lot to prove, and 2008 will go a long way toward telling us what kind of player he will be. We know he will always be an above average shortstop, but will he continue to improve his plate discipline? Will he stop hitting lollipop-ups with his long, hopeful swing? Will he ever equal Jimmy Rollins in terms of power? Time will tell, and at about $7 million per year through 2010, it’s worth finding out.