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December 27, 2007
David Wright: Cooperstown Bound?
From the standpoint of a Mets fan, this offseason has been rather glum, with the only move of consequence being the jettisoning of Lasting Milledge. So while the rest of the National League competitors are busy improving their teams, I thought it would be nice to take a look at one of the positives in the organization, and one who is certainly not going anywhere. For all of his awesomeness and playing in New York, David Wright is still under-appreciated. He is overlooked by the media for the other third baseman who plays a few miles north and by (casual, non-Geek) Met fans by the more eye-catching talents of the man playing a few feet to his left every night. He even has to share the spotlight with some other guys who can have legitimate Hall of Fame aspirations based on early returns. Not only is Wright a stand-out among his peers, the start of his career matches up well with any of the all-time greats at any position. With three full seasons, a large contract and an MVP-caliber season under his belt, it’s not too early to project Wright’s future place in history. So, how do his first three seasons compare with the greatest third basemen of all time? David Wright Age Year AB AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ WARP3 22 2005 575 .306 .388 .523 27 139 9.4 23 2006 582 .311 .381 .531 26 133 8.7 24 2007 604 .325 .416 .546 30 150 12.7 Total 1761 .314 .395 .534 83 141 30.8 Mike Schmidt Age Year AB AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ WARP3 24 1974 568 .282 .395 .546 36 158 12.6 25 1975 562 .249 .367 .523 38 142 9.6 26 1976 584 .262 .376 .524 38 150 11.0 Total 1715 .264 .379 .531 112 150 33.2 Schmidt is a bit of an interesting case when looking at early parts of a career. He got a relatively late start compared to other HOF-type talents (most of those guys don’t go to college), and had a tough time staying in the lineup his rookie season with a line of .196/.324/.373 (I didn’t use that season to compare him to Wright; it would be a waste of time). Schmidt was a superior defender than Wright and his offensive numbers are also slightly better, but given the large age difference and Schmidt’s terrible rookie season, I’ll call the early careers equal. However, Wright will have to develop more power, improve even more defensively and put up a few monster seasons like Schmidt consistently did in the late-70’s and early-80’s to give the greatest third baseman ever a run for his money. I love David Wright as much as anyone and it pains me to give credit to a Phillie, but Wright has a long way to go before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Mike Schmidt. Eddie Mathews Age Year AB AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ WARP3 20 1952 528 .242 .320 .447 25 113 5.1 21 1953 579 .302 .406 .627 47 171 10.8 22 1954 476 .290 .423 .603 40 172 11.1 Total 1583 .278 .383 .559 112 152 27 Mathews’ career path was the opposite of Schmidt’s. He reached the majors at a very early age but, outside of 1959, peaked early. Given the age difference, and that his rookie season (OPS+ of 113) could have easily been replaced with his 1955 season (172) for this study, the early career edge goes to Mathews. Wright has a better chance at catching Mathews than Schmidt in the long run because Mathews tapered off much faster than Schmidt and he was a much inferior defender. However, Mathews, like Schmidt, has a handful of the greatest seasons ever put up by a third baseman, so I’ll have to see a few more from Wright before he can exceed the top two. George Brett Age Year AB AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ WARP3 22 1974 634 .308 .353 .456 11 125 7.4 23 1975 645 .333 .377 .462 7 144 9.5 24 1976 564 .312 .373 .532 22 142 9.8 Total 1843 .318 .368 .483 40 138 26.7 Not much to say here about the early careers. I gave Brett the benefit of the doubt by eliminating his two-homerun rookie season—serving the dual purpose of keeping the matchup competitive and aligning the comparison seasons to cover the same ages for both men. Wright still edges Brett slightly in every category. I think Brett is an interesting comp for Wright over his whole career. Most people believe that Wright will continue to be more of an on-base threat rather than the 40-homer threat as he ages, as Brett was. However, Brett’s total career (1980 excluded), prime included, was about as good as Wright’s career has been up until this point. Wright has to have at least a little growth left in him, so he has a good chance of edging Brett in the long run. Wade Boggs Age Year AB AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ WARP3 25 1983 582 .361 .444 .486 5 150 11.1 26 1984 625 .325 .407 .416 6 135 9.9 27 1985 653 .368 .450 .478 8 151 12.3 Total 1860 .341 .434 .460 19 145 33.3 David Wright has had a great start to his career, but he didn’t walk into a Hall-of-Fame pace like Boggs did. Of course, Boggs didn’t play his first full season until he was 25, so going on first three years, Wright is equal to Boggs. Outside of his 24 homerun anomaly season in 1987, Boggs was pretty much the same player that he was from day one. That may not sound good, but the flip side is that Boggs was consistently great for an entire decade. He was a great player and is/was underrated due to the OBP factor, but I have a tough time believing that Wright will not pass him in the pantheon of third basemen when you consider that he will likely surpass Boggs’ career homerun total before his 26th birthday. And, just for laughs: Larry Age Year AB AVG OBP SLG HR OPS+ WARP3 23 1995 524 .265 .353 .450 23 108 3.8 24 1996 598 .309 .393 .530 30 136 5.9 25 1997 597 .295 .371 .479 21 119 5.3 Total 1719 .290 1117 .486 74 121 15.0 Not even close, Wright dominates! I imagine that it won’t be particularly close when both careers are over either. Even though he was an offensive juggernaut in the late 90’s and early 00’s (and to a lesser degree over the last three years), Larry was/is a terrible-to-below average defender depending on your preferred metric, spent two-and-a-half seasons bumbling around in left field, the fact that he had only one (1999), maybe two (2001) dominant seasons and general lack of consistency/health outside of his five year peak will allow David Wright to blow by him sooner rather than later. Which will be one hell of a satisfying day. Sources: Thanks to the always wonderful BaseballProspectus.com and BaseballReference.com. 15 Responses to “David Wright: Cooperstown Bound?”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Re Chipper,
you really need to do more than just look at Baseball Prospectus’ flawed defensive metrics and then loudly conclude that he is a terrible defender.
WARP GROSSLY underrates Chipper.
The play by play metrics, of which FRAA is NOT one, rate Chipper more highly than FRAA.
Chipper, UZR year by year from 2003: -4, +15, +5, -3, +7. All in runs above average.
Wright from 2004: 0, -2, -7, +3. All in runs above average.
In 2007, Revised Zone Rating had Chipper at +8, Zone Rating at +7.
In 2007, Revised Zone Rating had Wright at +24, Zone Rating at +1.
In 2006, Zone Rating had Chipper at -6, Wright at -10.
I included Wright’s numbers to provide a comp.
Also,
defense aside, WARP will underrate players like Chipper, ie players with durability issues, because the replacement level that Baseball Prospectus uses for WARP is very low: around AA level.
If you use Batting Runs above Average, also from BPro, which compares a player to average from an offensive standpoint, instead of some hypothetical replacement level, Chipper’s career looks different.
Example, by Batting Runs above average,
Schmidt: 648.
Matthews: 701
Brett: 498.
Chipper is 540 runs above average offensively over his career. Last 3 years: 33, 40, 56.
Metrics aside, there is a reason Chipper was moved to the outfield. Not saying that Wright may not eventually move if he can’t get his error totals lower….
As much as I love Wright (In addition to being a Met fan I farm drafted Wright in my roto league and have had him at a low salary for 4 years in my roto league)
wait a minute…
Chipper’s OPS+ marks his first 3 full seasn were 108, 136 and 199 gainst Wright’s 139, 133, 150, but Larry then reeled off 148, 168, 141, 160, 153 and stands at 143 for his career.
He is ahead of Larry but it’s a bit premature to say that he’ll definitely blow him out of the water.
You also need to account for the difference in offensive era- Schmidt’s 1st three full years saw him put up OPS+s of 158, 142 and 150.
And you forgot the man whom Wright was compared to from day 1- Rolen
22: .283/.377/.469
23: .290/.391/.532
24: .268/.368/.525
Rolen due to a variety of injury issues has never really developed from the age of 23 on.
That reason was the signing of Vinny Castillo, an exemplary fielder who couldn’t hit much of anything outside of Colorado. Your point is taken, though; if Chipper were a terrific fielding third baseman he wouldn’t have been a candidate for that move. Though, all it shows is that he was a lesser (or at least perceived to be lesser) defensive fielder than Castillo.
If I recall, the reasoning behind signing Castillo was for both the offense and the defensive improvement. If Chipper was fine at 3rd, why not sign a slugging left fielder which typically is easier to do?
I think you misread the article. The idea is that Wright blows Larry’s first three years out of the water. No one, including the author, is saying what he WILL do in the future. It’s just being suggested that Wright is having a much better start to his career than Larry which you agree with.
The things that really has hurt Chipper Jones is injuries over the last 5-6 seasons. If he wasn’t always hurt I would hate to see his total numbers in his career they would be scary, but injuries are part of the system ask Ken Griffy Jr. about that.
This is a great article, Zubin. It’s weird to think of the best player on a NY baseball team as being underappreciated, but David Wright definitely is. My one bone of contention is that Eddie Mathews only has one T in his last name. There aren’t many of us one-T’s, but we stick together. Even if they’re Braves.
No the author says:
Non-NY fans and media immediately believe that the Mets and their fans overrate Mets prospects and players. The fact that Wright has been everything that the Mets could have reasonably hoped for, if not more, is somehow lost on many.
Go on other team’s fan sites, an almost immediate reaction to the mention of David Wright is, “overrated”. He’s regarded as a good player by fans outside NY, but nothing more (except Fantasy Players who have rightfully come to regard him as a god).
A few months ago, BPRO printed a spreadsheet of the best players in baseball for each year- it was purely statistically, and weighted the most recent year at 3, 1 year away at 2, 2 years away at 1
(ie: a player’s 2007 was rated 3 times, 2006 times, and 2005 once)
2007 the best players in baseball
1: Pujols
2: AROD
3: Santana
4: WRIGHT
5: Cabrera
He has been one of the ten best players in baseball EACH of the last 3 seasons- how many people can say that?
The article is about Wright dominating in the 3 years. The author IMAGINES (hopes) that Wright’s career will continue down that path. He didn’t say “David Wright is and WILL BE a better player than Chipper in his career.” That’s a huge difference.
He was the best player in the league last year and finished fourth in the MVP vote. He’s overrated all right.
Thanks for the great article.
I remember doing a similar comparison (though less statistical) about Dwight Gooden after his first few years….
It´s early yet, but there´s certainly room for hope.
Wright has a loooooong way to go before he can be compared to any of these guys. I don’t care what defensive metrics people want to toss around, Wright’s defense ain’t great and I question whether he’ll ultimately play more of his years at 3B, LF or 1B.
And you have to show more respect to Chipper. The guy’s been an offensive dynamo, half the time with injuries that would render other players ineffective or put them on the bench. The hitting talent required to put up all-star numbers with bad backs, rib cages, ankles, etc. etc. is astounding. In this respect he’s kinda like the Mick — 500+ HRs, half the time drunk or with a hangover. Amazing.
That’s not to say I am not optimistic about Wright — he is improving year over year and he cracked the 30 HR plateau for the first time. He seems to have his head screwed on right and he raises the bar under pressure. If he’s going to be great, he needs to throw up 30+ HRs consistently. That will push his OBP way up. He’s just not strong enough defensively to stand out with gap power and 20-25 HRs a year. Let’s see if he can build on 30 in 3008.
2008!!
Last year his defense was pretty good. His throwing is still a bit of an issue tho but he has improved