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December 1, 2007
The Milledge Trade and Good Faith
Besides MetsGeek.com, my favorite blog on the internet right now is Jay Cost’s HorseRaceBlog over at RealClearPolitics.com . I’m a political junkie as well as a baseball and football fan, and I love Jay’s very analytical, measured approach to politics. In a piece he wrote over the summer, he talked about what he calls the “good faith assumption,” which I think is quite useful for baseball analysis as well as political analysis. Cost uses the good faith assumption to great effect, I think: basically, he will assume that political actors are acting in good faith, solely because his information is largely incomplete. To simplify it a bit, he’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, because there’s no reason to believe the public persona he presents is equivalent to the person he really is. The way I will apply this line of thinking to analyzing a particular trade is as follows: 1. Omar Minaya is a rational actor who thinks he has made a beneficial trade for the Mets. So, here’s the question: what could Omar Minaya possibly have been thinking when he traded Lastings Milledge for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider? The good faith assumption tells us that we should assume that Minaya is a rational actor, and that the deal made intrinsic sense to him. So, what could his rationale be? Perhaps in hashing that out, we might tolerate the deal a bit more. Or we might learn something. Or we might just become even angrier. Here are some possibilities: 1. We had a surplus of young outfielders without many spots to play them. With Fernando Martinez charging, and Carlos Gomez ready to go, it was necessary to trade one of them. Gomez is an elite talent who will far exceed Milledge’s production within the next couple of years. 2. Milledge was such a problem in the clubhouse that it was becoming a distraction. His antics against the Marlins during the Maine Game, as Keith Hernandez postulates, really did reinvigorate the beaten foe to keep the Mets out of the playoffs. He is more trouble than he is worth. 3. Johnny Estrada is simply inadequate as a catcher to be paired with Ramon Castro, and Brian Schneider represents a significant upgrade vis-a-vis him. Our scouts believe in his defensive reputation. 4. Ryan Church is a very good hitter who has suffered from being jerked around. We like his bat, and our scouts think that the 30% star percentage (the likelihood that the player posts an Equivalent Average between .280 and .300) on his fairly optimistic PECOTA forecast is modest. If you accept my four propositions, this is actually a good deal for the Mets. They dumped a clubhouse problem, added in a strong defensive catcher who should be viable for at least the next two seasons of his below-market contract, and freed up space for F-Mart and Gomez in the long-term, while simultaneously upgrading at a corner outfield position in the short-term. Nice find, right? I think that those propositions are a bit strained, particularly the first three (I’m actually a big fan of Ryan Church’s bat, myself, and I feel that he might actually help the Mets in 2008). I’ll do my best to respond to them: 1. The Mets did have a surplus of young outfielders, particularly with four more years of Beltran locked in to one of those spots. If you remain high on Fernando Martinez (I do, even with the injuries), then it made sense to trade one of Gomez or Milledge. I mentioned this a few weeks back:
Gomez is a risk, by any stretch of the imagination. We don’t know how he is going to turn out. Milledge, on the other hand, seems fairly predictable. At worst, he’s going to be Ryan Church. If it’s me, running a team with a “win-now” orientation and a core of superstars, I’m taking the sure thing, rather than the range guy. Perhaps if I’m running the Royals, I’d keep the riskier player, hoping he might become a cornerstone, but my team already has young cornerstones. I worry about Gomez’s plate discipline, and from what I saw of the kid, he was not ready for the big-time at all last year. His injury basically ended his development in July, so he got a half-year of being extremely challenged at levels he wasn’t ready for. We don’t know how much better he will get, and Minaya is taking a huge risk to bank on him. 2. I’m not privy to clubhouse discussions, and I don’t know much about clubhouse dynamics. I do know that the Milledge-dancing story would have been a non-starter if Glavine had his good stuff against the Marlins on Sunday, or even if Cabrera’s laser groundball single in the first had been hit a few feet closer to third base (then it becomes a routine 5-4-3 GIDP and a chance for Wright to show off his glovework). Yes, Milledge has had his problems, but the New York media has done a wonderful job magnifying them and making an issue out of them. This is a 21-year old kid in the majors who tends to be a bit cocky. Is there going to be friction? Yeah, of course. Does it mean it has to be traded away? That’s silly. 3. The narrative for the trade would have been a lot different if they hadn’t made the Mota for Estrada swap. It’s a fairly straightforward one. I’ll write the lead. The Mets dealt troubled young outfielder Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for catcher Brian Schneider to shore up their catching situation in an offseason where the market for catchers is sparse. After having backed out of signing Yorvit Torrealba last week, and having been spurned by Paul Lo Duca, Mets’ GM Omar Minaya felt that he desperately needed to add a catcher to share time with Ramon Castro. Then the deal makes logical sense. In fact, it would almost be a rehash of the Lo Duca deal from two years back: the Mets traded a valuable prospect for a reliable catcher because they couldn’t land one of the few free agent catchers on the market. I wouldn’t necessarily agree with the trade, or like it, but it would make more sense to me. But that simply doesn’t hold water this time, because the Mets had already added Johnny Estrada, who’s the same age as Schneider (31). Here’s a chart with OPS+ figures: Player 2007 Career Estrada 78 86 Schneider 77 82 Estrada is a better hitter than Schneider. Schneider is certainly better defensively, but Estrada had a bad year throwing out runners in 2007, which wasn’t surprising consider offseason surgeries to repair his knees and his elbow, both of which are vital for catchers’ defense. Schneider may be a slight upgrade in 2008 over Estrada, but I wouldn’t bank on it with Estrada in a contract year. 4. I can accept this aspect of the rationale. I buy Church as a player who could really help you for a couple of years, particularly as a lefty bat. He would be an excellent platoon partner, at the very least, and could pick up some of the slack from the left side of the plate if Delgado can’t recover from his injuries. Church is a far better hitter than he gets credit for. In a death trap for hitters, he’s posted solid lines each season: Year PA AVE OBA SLG 2005 301 .287 .353 .466 2006 230 .276 .366 .526 2007 530 .272 .349 .464 I don’t really think that Church is going to emerge as a stud, but there’s a chance that you get something like .280/.360/.520 from Church from him someday, given a little luck. Because he hasn’t gotten consistent usage, Church is rather underrated. I think a lot of fans will be pleasantly surprised by him. Ultimately, if I’m right about Minaya’s reasoning, I think it was flawed. In my judgment, it looks like he underrated Estrada, overrated Gomez, and tried a bit too hard to placate the implacable New York media. It is probably smarter to trust Minaya’s judgment on those players than my own, but the bottom line is that sometimes, baseball executives read the situations incorrectly. I think this was one of those times. I see this as a bad trade (though not a catastrophically bad trade), and I would advise people to look at the big picture. I would take even-money odds that the Mets will benefit from this trade (minimally) in 2008. But it will look awfully bad in 2011. I’m pretty sure about that. 34 Responses to “The Milledge Trade and Good Faith”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Only time will tell if this trade was good or bad. There are too many things that can happen to condemn it now.
It’s a bad trade no doubt. I was pissed all day when i heard about in fact cause i really thought Milledge was gonna put up pretty solid numbers next year and just get better and better. The biggest problem i have with this is that it didn’t help us at all next year. Lasting is better than Church, and resigning Lo Duca (not that it was gonna happen) is better, at least offensively, than Schneider. Now had we got Rauch or Cordero in this deal i would at least feel very secure with our bullpen.
Wagner
Heilman
Rauch
Sanchez
Pedro2
Show
Padilla/?
thats a pretty solid bullpen, but i gotta say Minaya did nothing to improve this team for next year.
Only thing I will throw in there is that in the Lastings case, dismissing the clubhouse issue is the one thing we honestly know nothing about. IF that was the reason for the trade (and I don’t know that it is), it is the one factor that we are not privy to so we can’t really dismiss it the way you do.
I do agree that Church is a decent hitter, it just seems like we sold low on Lastings, it does sound like Church will be our regular OF and a lefty bat is useful in our lineup.
Or maybe Omar just made the trade so he can stop hearing about how he only looks for latinos…
A few weeks ago I proposed looking at Schneider as a catcher, because he has such a good reputation. Catchers´ ¨defense¨ is very hard to analyze statistically, because a lot of it is about handling a pitching staff, not just throwing out runners or blocking balls. So reputation, or subjective reporting, is more important at this position than any other.
My only surprise is that Milledge went in the deal, and that relief pitching didn´t come back. Who are our trade chips for a top pitcher now? Do we trade Gomez too? (I hope not) Do Church and/or Castro get added to the trading chip pile?
Good article. I would quibble with your Estrada/Schneider comparison in that OPS gives a greater weight to slugging percentage than it’s worth. The maximum possible OPS is 5.000, which is 4/5ths slugging. (This means that OPS has no meaningful unit, unlike OBP). OBP is, per point, more valuable than slugging. Schneider’s total OPS includes a much greater weight of OBP than Estrada’s; therefore, since their overall totals are similar, it seems that Schneider really is the greater offensive player.
Church also has a solid OBP-weight. So there’s that.
Also, I think the value of this trade is far greater than it would have been had the Mets traded Milledge for two relievers. That much should be clear.
One more thing Minaya might have been thinking was “Ryan Church is a more valuable trading chip than Lastings Milledge”. But this would seem to only make sense if he was lining up a deal with a team more concerned with contention. I can’t see, for example, why Baltimore or Oakland (or Florida for that matter) would rather have Church than Milledge in a package.
So here are some ideas that I came up with that might net pitching from a team trying to win:
Church to the Giants for Noah Lowry (I wouldn’t do this but it’s something)
Church to Cleveland for Cliff Lee and Rafael Perez (??)
Church and Pelfrey to Milwaulkee for Ben Sheets (I think this is quasi-plausible)
The Padres and Dodgers are also looking for a CFer, but I’m not sure if there’s a fit with them, unless the Padres want him in exchange for an ace reliever, like maybe…Heath Bell!
One more thing Minaya might have been thinking was “Ryan Church is a more valuable trading chip than Lastings Milledge”. But this would seem to only make sense if he was lining up a deal with a team more concerned with contention. I can’t see, for example, why Baltimore or Oakland (or Florida for that matter) would rather have Church than Milledge in a package.
So here are some ideas that I came up with that might net pitching from a team trying to win:
Church to the Giants for Noah Lowry (I wouldn’t do this but it’s something)
Church to Cleveland for Cliff Lee and Rafael Perez (??)
Church and Pelfrey to Milwaulkee for Ben Sheets (I think this is quasi-plausible)
The Padres and Dodgers are also looking for a CFer, but I’m not sure if there’s a fit with them, unless the Padres want him in exchange for an ace reliever, like maybe…Heath Bell!
so we traded milledge’s potential for the potential of a slight immediate upgrade at catcher and right field. what’s the max that upgrade could be next year? 2 wins? i think that’s generous, but let’s call it 2 wins (and an extra $3 million or so). how much more likely that we get into the playoffs with those two extra wins? is it worth sacrificing milledge’s longterm potential? only if a) you think that the mets have to win it all in 2008 because they’re not going to get another chance for a while and you think those two wins put us over the top; or b) you think that milledge will not be 2 wins better over the course of the next five years than church will be over the next four plus schneider over the next two. a) is simply not true (unless we continue to make trades like this one) and b) is very very unlikely to be true.
(why do i feel like i still have to discuss how terrible this trade was?)
i can almost guarantee none of the teams you mentioned are more interested in church than in milledge. if even we (soured as we were) thought that milledge was worth more than just church, why would anyone else like church more than milledge?
TO call it 2 wins you have to squint really damn hard. If you squint, Church is MAYBE 1 win better than Milledge.
Lowry? Seriously? Omar might as well sign Livan and Trachsel too, on the drive towards mediocrity.
All I can say is that this is the worst I have felt since someone promised to fix someone else in ten minutes. I had hoped never to experience this type of Deja-vu again. I am really pissed.
I think this is a terrible trade. Millo has allstar potential and was about to shine. Why build up this guy and trade him for 2 average players? At least get a pitcher of some kind for him.
I also think its Willies job to get someone like Millo under control. This just shows that Willie has no control over his players as well as Omar. Church no way has more value than Millo. Gomez IMO is really not ready. He will turn out to be a bust IMO or get injured. I hope i am wrong but I think Omar just made The Mets that much worse……..
I’m not really happy about this trade, but after sober reflection, I’ve decided to wait for the other shoe to drop before condemning it. I doubt this deal is completely done. To evaluate it completely, we’ll have to wait to see whom he trades next.
When he traded the Bensons to Baltimore, some of us were happy, but I doubt that any of us were very impressed, but I’m sure we’re all pleased with the way that has worked out. Let’s see what this “roster flexibility” brings in the next weeks.
Milledge held his own in the bigs last season, so his bat didn’t factor in his plummeting trade value. His attitude/preparation , and the realization that CF is not his long-term position are the culprits. His showboating particularly with Jose Reyes on that last Saturday in September probably really irked Minaya and Randolph. Again, I think it is a decent trade as I don’t see Milledge as this perennial all star / future hof as some on this board.
Jerry, I agree that I think many geeks overvalue Lastings right now, but I still think Omar may have traded him at a low point in his value. I think chances are good that he would have increased his value this year with a solid year. However, now the rumor is that Omar was getting turned down in trades by offering Lastings/Heilman/Humber to the Orioles where having Church might make the deal work. If that is the case, well, Omar will be demanding an applogy soon :)
Sure hope so. At face value this trade was about getting rid of a player who had pissed off Mets brass and therefore traded him while his value was low.
I think what happened was the was zero interest in Milledge as far as bringing back a pitcher. Minaya brings in a proven major league talent. The guy hit over 40 doubles in a pitchers park. He’s far from a bum. He’s just as good as Milledge is as this point. He also brought back a defensive minded catcher. Which we have not seen the likes of since, well ….the Jerry Grote days. I think in Church you have the same interest as Milledge from most of those teams. I think Minaya is finding it extremely difficult to find a Top Ace pitcher in todays market were there are only a handful. With these two players he takes care of the catching need and we still have a chip if need be.
It is interesting how many people that are huge MiLo backers are so against Gomez. Maybe that is why this trade bothers me but not as much as it does folks like poc who IMHO SEVERELY over-rate Lastings.
And it’s interesting to me how many people fail to recognize Milledge’s freakish bat speed, how at age 22 he could let the ball work deeper in the hitting zone than any other Met. This guy is a couple of years away from being the exact kind of hitter you want behind Jose Reyes.
And Milledge could have been league-average for us now. Gomez, unless he gets his hands on a bat made out of wood from a tree struck by fucking lightning, is at least a full year away from being an option at all to hold down a starting spot. And he may never even get there.
I’m the first to admit how highly I think of Milledge’s bat. He’s going to be a doubles machine for a long time IMO. But this deal is nowhere near Kazmir level, obviously, and for a large part because I believe Church will be good, and the lefty presence useful solidifying the back half of the order. I’m sure we’ll stick Castillo behind Reyes, but Church is certainly a viable option. And let’s face it, this team’s fate in 2008 (which is too soon to determine the outcome of this trade, sure) will hinge far more upon Delgado, Pedro, Ollie/Maine, and the bullpen than any of the positions relevant to this trade.
If Delgado gets back to clobbering the ball, and Ollie and Maine sustain or improve on last year’s work, we’re going to be WS contenders.
Believe.
I’d love for the Mets to become World Series contenders…after they blow the first three months of the season and Willie and Omar are canned.
This probably won’t happen because I’m guessing that this trade was a Wilpon move similar to the Anna Benson deal, and that it might have been done over Omar’s objections. This means that Omar has displayed loyalty towards the Wilpons and (as is usually the case) has something on them.
Sports don’t usually get to me this much, but this kid was one of my favorite players. I saw him as the third piece of the Wright/Reyes/Milledge homegrown trio. And we trade him for replacement level players.
A day later I think this trade still seems unbelievably stupid. The team just traded away the one guy on the roster who had the potential for a breakout season.
Young players don’t get a chance here unless they kiss the manager’s ass repeatedly and without question. That’s what this is about. Milledge should have been starting in RF last year, and he should be starting for us in RF next year. Omar and Willie are fools, and this is just going to become more and more clear as time goes on.
The idea that politicians are operating in good faith, these days…
Oh man, I buy that even less than I buy this trade.
But this ain’t the place to get political.
It all goes out the window, anyway, when you realize that an A-level prospect got dealt for two guys who would be bench players on most teams, should be bench players on most teams, only WEREN’T bench players because they were playing for the D.C. Expos.
A late-innings defensive catcher and a competent-hitting fourth outfielder for the guy who was supposed to be your open day rightfielder and was going to improve for years yet, already having better hitting statistics than the outfielder you got who can basically only go downhill from here.
Congratulations, they downgraded their right-field and as a bonus for trading down they got… Mike DeFelice 2: Judgement Day.
Blah.
The question isn’t if Minaya thought he was improving the team.
I’m sure that he honestly thought he was improving the team’s “image” and “chemistry” but all of that means less than a sparrow’s fart in a hailstorm when you’re actually talking about winning baseball games.
He was “improving” the team in a way that made no sense for the actual on-field product.
Which means that, for his position and what he’s supposed to be doing…
He does not fill criteria number one.
He was not a rational actor in the context of a major league baseball GM’s job.
Gomez COULD be great… has a CHANCE of being even better than Milledge, sure.
But he’s NEXT April away from being developed enough to be an everyday major league starter and… F-Mart is possibly THREE Aprils away. Those guys wouldn’t have been breathing down Milledge’s neck for a long time, rationally speaking.
There would’ve been ample time to actually explore Milledge’s potential before any kind of a logjam popped up, especially if you’re not delusional enough to believe that Alou’s playing beyond 08 or playing more than 120 games IN 08.
Dude can still hit but he’s made of glass, lets not count too much on him, huh?
Why are so many people down on Milledge to become a superstar? I still see that possibility. And I think he is much less risk than Gomez, who could be all or nothing and many of those prospects end up being nothing.
This is what Matthew Cerrone says at Metsblog:
Matthew Cerrone, though, is being a homer d-bag suck-up there.
You don’t develop the ability to lay off the breaking ball at the major league level without… surprise… getting a long unpressured stretch of time at the majors without the threat of being benched for any slup.
“Instincts” at the plate, in the field and on the bases in AAA… where you’re playing against 23 Jose Limas and two great prospects who are still green… and those “instincts” in the majors are completely different things.
Are players just supposed to… appear out of a wheatfield, like Venus on the half-shell, rising from the effing sea?
C’mon, now. That’s b.s.
And an on-the-field ego is a GOOD thing if your coaches and teammates are able to slowly and supportively channel it into a positive direction.
But no, those people who were supposed help him and teach him and help him grow spent two years smacking him down and leaving notes in his locker to protect the egos and jobs of fading “proven veterans” like Shawn Green and Cliff Floyd.
Bush-league, man. Total bush-league.
I totally agree with you, LFM. I’m certainly not defending the trade. But since we’re trying to figure out the logic behind the Mets trade, I thought it would be useful to post Cerrone’s thoughts.
I’d be much much much more happy today with Yorvit and Milledge than with Church and Schneider. And I would be much much….much happier with Milledge three years from now than Church and Schneider. Is this what Omar means when he says that he wants the Mets to get younger and more athletic? Omar must be thinking about their ages when he was still in Montreal. I am really disgusted and will be more so if and when I hear that he also traded away Gomez. Manny Acta is a lot smarter than Willie and Omar.
I’ve never been so disappointed in the Mets since the 10 minutes fiasco.
However, it’s unfair to call Church a replacement player or a bench player.
His OPS+ was 114 last season. This was in a platoon role, where he was used in favourable situations; so as he plays more, his numbers will probably go down. However he still is about average offensively for a corner OF. Last 3 years, Baseball Prospectus had him at 10, 12, 13 runs above (a league) average (hitter) offensively. That is about average for a corner OF. His defense is supposed to be good. So he should be average or slightly above.
c) the rap album, a strong on-field ego, a casual work ethic, etc, and
Reyes has a reggae album, I guess we should get rid of him as well.
This trade was ridiclous. We got nothing back we needed.
You know it is kind of funny, a lot of the issue with us apparently “not giving” enough time to Milledge last year is because of his injury. Lets not forget he would have been on our roster on opening day if he wasn’t injured for the first 2 or 3 months. It would have been interesting to have had the extra 200 at bats for Milledge that instead went to Gomez and then 25 other guys after our entire OF went out.
Actually you have no idea if you will want him 3 years from now over Church. What you know is that you would rather have the next 3 VARIABLE years over Church. Church is a more defined quantity as a 280/15/80 guy. A very nice player who would fit in well at the 2 slot or the 6/7 slot on this team. Also a lefty bat which is very useful to have. Milledge MAY do better than that the next 3 years, he may not. My person guess is that the key will be his average. IF he learns to make consistant contact he could be a 300/20/90 guy. IF he continues to have major holes in his swing he could turn out to be a 260/10/60 guy. If he develops more power than he has shown he could maybe have a few years of 310/30/100.
Yet it sesms to me by these posts Lastings is guaranteed to have a half decade of 300/30/100. Something I just don’t see. Frankly I would have been happy with Milledge if he gave me what Church did last year. It was honestly the most I was hoping for him for next year. That would have meant that Milledge was more patient at the plate, judged ML pitching well and was on pace for growing the next few years.
However, I could also see Lastings hitting 260/10/60 over a full season next year (not what I was expecting, but it wouldn’t be surprising with the ups and downs of a full year).
I wish Lastings well, I don’t like the trade. But we did not just trade a “superstar” IMO.
Well, I don’t think very highly of Cerrone at all. So whatever he thinks I take with a grain of salt.
JamesSC, you really think Milledge would be a worse player at age 23 than 22? Again, lets lose the blinders; this was a bad trade. Milledge is a better option in right field than Church right now, and he’s only likely to get better. And even if its only a tad better, Church is not likely to improve as much. Schneider hits like a pitcher so we essentially have two pitchers in our lineup when he’s in. Bad trade. Hopefully, though, better things will come.
I think we’re all stunned at this trade because of all the rumors of who he would have fetched a year or two ago. And that was the likes of Manny Ramirez, elite starting pitching, etc. Now he gets 2 replacement level players, one of whom seems to have no upside.
On the otherhand, I think the comment about his injuries was a good point.
Either
Lastings = future superstar outfielder, .330 average, 25 HR, 40 steals
OR
Lastings = Jay Payton. Or Alex Escobar.