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October 24, 2007
A Look at the Offense
We’re going to run a bunch of these pieces all winter, I presume, as we monitor the changes that the front office makes this offseason. Here’s my first look at the offense: Pos AVE OBP SLG OPSRnk C .267 .309 .410 6/16 1B .260 .344 .453 11/16 2B .278 .348 .405 10/16 3B .320 .412 .539 2/16 SS .281 .355 .422 7/16 LF .306 .357 .458 9/16 CF .285 .356 .520 2/16 RF .273 .326 .398 15/16 I really like this list, actually. It’s instructive, and it’s a good way to evaluate expectations. This is the production the Mets got from everyone who played at these positions at any point in the year, while they were playing that respective position. It’s basically all Met offensive production besides the designated hitter and pinch hitters. So, what does this list tell us? 1. I was really worried about what this would show from left field; I figured that there was no way the Mets could duplicate Alou’s amazing season. But the other left fielders the Mets played didn’t do a very good job; the Mets ended up being right in the middle of the pack in left field. Even anticipating a drop-off from Alou, the Mets should be comparable in left. 2. While the power at catcher sustained them, the Mets could stand to add some OBP at catcher. I love Chris McCown’s suggestion of a Ramon Castro/Javier Valentin tandem/platoon. I imagine that Valentin could be acquired for fairly cheap, off of a down year. You’re not going to get amazing production from that duo, but you would have some pop. Valentin had his best season when he platooned with Jason LaRue, rocking lefties to the tune of a .301/.364/.557 line back in 2005. I don’t think we’ll see that again, but that’s a potential weapon. 3. Third base and centerfield might see a slight decline, but I think that the Mets should be okay for roughly similar numbers. 4. A bounce back? Shortstop. Bank on Reyes and the guys who pick up 20-30 innings on his behalf beating their 2007 line of .281/.355/.422. 5. The potential decline is coming from first base. Suffering that brutal hand injury in the last game, Delgado might struggle to get back. He got off to a dreadfully slow start this year, and it’s possible that the same thing could happen in 2007. I alluded to needing to prepare for that possibility in a previous column, and I’ll reiterate it. The overall production they got from first base was acceptable last year, but another drop off would put them squarely at the bottom of the league in production from first base. 6. Right field is where the problem was. It’s an offensive position, and the Mets were second to last in the league in OPS there. A full season of healthy Milledge would outproduce the collective .273/.326/.398, but I’m not certain as to by how much. 7. You could also stand to add some more from second base. I’m not sure if Gotay, or a healthy Valentin, or a re-upped Castillo is the way to go here. Sadly, the market for infielders is bereft and awful. There is, however, a surplus of outfielders on the market. Check out some of these names: Barry Bonds, SF It’s not a great list, but there are some options (unlike middle infield). I like the idea of Fukudome. So, there’s really only one question left dealing with the offense: Is Ruben Gotay the long-term answer at second base? If so, you don’t really need to make a move to bolster the middle infield and might as well work with Valentin/Gotay/Anderson/Easley for another year. Then, you can ease Gotay into the everyday lineup. If not, you might want to deal from a position of strength: young corner outfielders. Now, challenge trades are rare, but dealing your young outfielder(s) for a middle infield prospect (say, Eric Patterson on the Cubs, or Michael Hollimon on the Tigers) might make some sense. You have a better chance of addressing the outfield problems through the free agent market than your infield problems, and you do have to give up value to get value. I do think that the Mets’ outfield prospects are far better than the two infield prospects I threw out there, for what it’s worth. I don’t have specific answers on this, but I think that the idea of moving from a position of strength towards filling a need (a starting-level, young middle infielder and live arms for the bullpen) is worth exploring. This is somewhat sacrilegious for me, because I do like Milledge. But if you can insert Fukudome and a good, young middle infielder into the lineup, you’d be in good shape for the near future. Even if it means dealing Milledge or Gomez. Most importantly, though, you want to bring in some live arms. Otherwise, the offense in 2008 is going to look pretty similar to ‘07, excepting catcher. That’s not a terrible thing, since 2008 might be a “retooling” year for the Mets, in order to prepare for their 2009 Citi Field debut. Delgado’s contract expires then and one would think Alou will retire after next year, so you’ll have two gaping holes at offensive positions to fill, somehow. You’ll also have a great deal of financial flexibility, with Pedro, Delgado, and Alou all coming off the books (assuming the Mets bring Alou back for one more season). But for the 2008 Mets, the real changes can come on the pitching staff. I’ll talk about that next time. 33 Responses to “A Look at the Offense”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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The goal, I’d hope, for the offensive line-up in 2009 should be:
CA - (big money free-agent pick-up in the 2008 off-season)
1B - (big money free-agent pick-up in the 2008 off-season, probably Texiara)
2B - Gotay
SS - Reyes
3B - Wright
OF - Beltran
OF - Milledge
OF - Gomez
Whatever best gets us from here to there in 2008 should be the plan.
I’m not so sure that Javier Valentin would be able to maintain his power if he left the Great American Ballpark/Launchpad. Plus, Castro hits lefties better too, that’s what makes the platoon idea a little murkey with him. Just not having to start Alomar and DiFelice should raise those numbers some, but how to accomplish that I’m not sure. If a trade was to be made, I would think catcher is the position to fill with one, and I think those stats bear that out. Since the free agent market consists of Posada, all the Mets catchers, and some guys that aren’t any better, the only worthwhile way to change the status quo would be to sign Posada, make Castro the starter (risky for a number of reasons), or trade for someone. Who, I’m not exactly sure. It seems that the Mariners have two catchers, unless they are planning on moving/DHing Clement, which I have heard rumours of over the years. Johjima is certainly no slouch. The Angels have a couple of kids, and very tight fists, and the Indians have Shoppach and Martinez, but they’ll probably move Victor to 1b before trading one of them. I’m not sure about other organizations, minor league catchers are a strange and unpredictable commodity. Ramon Hernendez is another option, but if signing him loses a draft pick, one would have to weigh his value against LoDuca plus the pick (unless LoDuca’s declaring makes that a moot issue, how do the rules work now?) Keeping Castillo, or platooning Gotay and Easley, or something of that nature should nudge the 2b numbers just a bit, Valentin just wasn’t playing that well when he was able to play. And what is the story with Fukodome? All I really have heard is that he is coveted, but I’m not so sure why. He’s likely the only name on that list worth persuing, Rowand is going to have a harder time keeping up his numbers playing away from Philly (part park, part lineup), Torii Hunter is going to cost a mint, and anyone would take at-bats away from Milledge and be a roadblock down the way for Gomez/Martinez, unless trades are going to be made, and or Martinez moves to 1b, but that would make Carp expendable, and Harper, though the latter probably wouldn’t bring much. Carp either, coming off the season he had. I would love to see the fielding stats by position, ’cause even with the weak parts of the lineup, the offense didn’t suck, it was just inconsistent.
Do you have a catcher in mind of for ‘08 signing? The cream of that crop is I-Rod, Varitek, and Johnny Estrada, as far as I can tell. And I’m not so sure the Braves would want to let Teixeira walk after giving up Salty (it’s to late to try and spell that one), they’ll probably try to lock him up. The next rung down from him that year seems to be Nomar and Delgado and Richie Sexson.
Teix is a Scott Boras client, so the chances of him working out an extension with the Braves before he hits free agency are vanishingly small.
I think you got Javier Valentin’s split backwards. That was his line against right-handed pitchers in 2005. The Valentin/Castro platoon could be a cheap and effective unit for sure.
Valentin career vs. RHP: .735
Castro career vs. LHP: .759
They wouldn’t hit for high average, but they both have power and draw their share of walks. I would bet that they could at least match that line from our catchers last year, and possibly be even more productive.
Personally, I think trying to bring in big, over the hill names, for the 2008 season will only make the Mets less competitive for 2009. My vote (not that Omar is listening) is to tread water in 2008. We have a fair chance of making the playoffs if Reyes plays like he did the first four month of 2007, and if Delgado plays something in between last year and three years ago - i.e. 100 RBIS. I think Milledge has a reasonable chance of hitting.285, 20 homers if he plays regularly. Then I like LittleFalls potential lineup for 2009. As Eric Simon points out, with Texiera being a client of Boras, the Mets probably have a better chance of signing him for 2009. Hopefully though, Yankees don’t become contenders for Tex.
I’d really be curious to see how the Mets rated regarding defense last year. I think that LoDuca’s pitch calling is over-rated and is a bad defensive catcher. If LoDuca is retained, please only for one year, and sit him against good running clubs. However, I am sure that LoDuca can manage a 2-3 year contract from someone. I was shocked to read that Posada will be/was offered 40 million over three years. I am relatively confident that the Yankees will be regretting that by 2009. We also should have ranked poorly defensively at first, left and right if one uses a metric of what balls should have been reached.
I wouldn´t be surprised to see Omar go after Brian Schneider in a trade for catcher. he had schneider in Montreal, and he has a good defensive reputation. Offensively he´s not great, but he is adequate. Since the Nats have another catcher (does the name Jesus Flores ring a bell?), maybe they´d be willing to trade, and Schneider shouldn´t cost too much in talent.
Well as far as Tex goes, Boras is a factor to consider, but not all his clients bolt. Bernie Williams and Jason Varitek come to mind. Giambi will be a free agent at that point too, so the one would think the Yankees will get into it.
I did have the Valentin splits backwards, thanks for pointing that out, but I’m still not sold on him. I’m almost positive his option vested, which means there would have to be a trade, and his power only surfaced for two seasons, last year he only hit two homeruns. In Cincinnati. And for his walks his obp was .311. He seems to be a better fit as a platoon partner with Castro than he is for the team.
Posada will break the bank. He made 12 million last year, and hit .338, so a pay cut isn’t on his mind. I agree that the range at 1b last year wasn’t good, but I thought the outfielders covered ground well.
It would be nice if Schneider would be available, but I don’t think the Nats would trade their starter unless there was someone else better around, and if that were the case I’d rather go for that person, but I can’t think who that would be.
Ramon Hernandez and Benji Molina are both rumored to be available via trade and would be better options than anyone else mentioned.
I would take Ramon Hernandez
I read somewhere they want Heilman for him.
that i would not do.
1. I was really worried about what this would show from left field; I figured that there was no way the Mets could duplicate Alou’s amazing season. But the other left fielders the Mets played didn’t do a very good job; the Mets ended up being right in the middle of the pack in left field. Even anticipating a drop-off from Alou, the Mets should be comparable in left.
Actually, I’m worried about a drop-off in left, because I worry that we’ll only get 80 games from Alou again, and that those 80 games won’t be as productive. LF was not that much of a net positive for us in 2007, despite Alou’s terrific season with the bat. When Alou is out there we get a great bat, lousy glove, and whenever anybody else is out there we get a good glove but no hitting.
I wouldn’t mind going with Fukudome out there. He’s a brilliant defensive player. Fukudome, Beltran and Milledge would be a great defensive outfield, far better than Alou-Beltran-Green. I think 160 games of Fukudome would be a better option than 80 games of Alou plus 80 games of Newhan-Ledee-Endy.
Free Heilman so he can start for some team! I wish that team would be the Mets, but it ain’t going to happen. Who would replace him in the bullpen? Everyone seems to be forgetting Joe Smith…or maybe they are not just sold on him. I also see Pelfrey as more effective in the bullpen.
What is all the fuss about Fukudome ? Havent there really only been 4, maybe 5 players to come over from Japan and have noticeable impacts ? I wouldnt be surprised if alot of the reason for not doing well here has to do with cultural adjustments, plus all the travel (that doesnt happen in Japan). Kaz, Yoshii & Shinjo didnt exactly do much in NY. Kaz was an MVP in Japan right ??? Is Fukudome a great defensive player based on 1-2 highlight clips seen on mytube.com ? Carlos Gomez made a bunch of nice plays in Queens last year. I agree about Joe Smith being better next year. He was basically just out of college and didnt have a season or two to build up the stamina needed for the full ML season. Pelfrey may very well end up like Heilmann better suited for a relief role due to lack of secondary out pitches. Regarding those 2008 available C’s, 2 of the 3 will be well into the typical decline phase for a C & the other has been injury prone. I-roid was only great when Canseco was poking needles in his ass in TX. Considering Estrada hits well for a C, isnt it weird to see him on his 4th team already ? He couldnt get along with people in Az ? Did the Braves receive much in return for him from Az or was he a FA; I didnt think he had the required time to become a FA.
jk, god willing, newhan and ledee won’t get any chances in left field this year, no matter how hurt alou is. chavez and ben johnson should do an adequate job replacing alou, so i think we can more or less count on reproducing last year’s left field line with alou/chavez/johnson in ‘08.
i like the idea of a valentin/castro platoon at catcher. i actually like the idea of just giving the job to castro, but this seems like a nice compromise for the legions who don’t think castro can handle the job fulltime. anyway, that platoon would probably better last year’s catcher production for roughly equal money.
i like fukudome, but we really don’t have the need for an outfielder, either now or in the future. if we can get him for 3/36 (which seems to be the low end of expectations) and cut alou loose, it would probably be worth it, but it doesn’t seem worth it to go more than that on him, as he wouldn’t significantly outperform alou, et al in left or milledge in right. better to save the money for the 1b/pitcher we’ll be needing next offseason, i think.
i also think, again, that we’re really underselling milledge if we’re not sure by how much he’s going to improve on last year’s right field production. first of all, he hit 272/341/446 last year. also, he’s going to be 23. also, he’s never ever been anything but holy crap awesome in his entire career. he even mashed righties all through the minors, so i think he just needs a little while to adjust to good righty pitching in the majors. long story short: milledge is going to be league average at worst in right field next year. this will easily be the biggest boon to our offense as long as we just let him play.
i, along with dan, expect cf and 3b to hold steady, while getting a bit of a boon from reyes at ss. so that leaves 2b and 1b. of the two, the 1b problem seems the hardest to solve, because things don’t look bright for delgado in 08 and we owe him a lot of money. even if omar’s really creative, i’m not sure what there is to do about that. i think we’ll probably just have to put him out there and hope for the best. at second, i don’t think we have much of a problem at all, actually. a gotay/easley platoon, or even a gotay/ahern platoon would work for about league average production, or maybe a little better. i don’t think we really need to worry about 2b or even “our 2b of the future”.
in short, what i see is an improved offense next year based only on the simple moves of giving milledge and castro more playing time and utilizing our in-house 2b options properly. considering that we were one of the better offensive teams in the league last year (3rd in obp, 7th in slg), i don’t think we really have to worry about the offense too much.
I am worried about THREE key players in the offense, and imho, they could be the difference between making the post-season or not:
- Delgado (age/health issues)
- Alou (age/health issues)
- LoDuca (age/health issues)
I’ve added LoDuca to that list because I believe the Mets will bring him back on a one-year deal. I was once a pretty firm believer in a 2008 bounce-back year for Delgado. Now I’m less sure because of that broken hand he suffered in the final game.
If any or all of the above go down for a significant length of time, I think the 2008 Mets don’t have enough reserve offense - Milledge simply cannot pick up the slack for 2 or 3 injured guys - and therefore will be trouble to make the playoffs.
PS- Trot Nixon is kinda intriguing to me strictly as a platoon player with Alou. The guy’s a gamer who could bring some much needed leadership to the clubhouse. I bet he could be had cheaply, plus he’s only 33. Then again, that might just be adding yet another injury risk.
If Fukudome were to actually come here (which I don’t see happening), I would move Milledge to left field, where he profiles much better defensively. Fukudome apparently has a very strong arm and would seem to profile better as a rightfielder, anyway.
Sweet, with Fukudome we can rank 15th of 16 in LF next year instead of RF.
No one knows how this guy is gonna produce. he can just as easily be a 700 OPS player than he is an 800 one.
its a little scary to me.
It just seems strange that people kill the production out of the Alou fill-ins, then say Fukudome.
He could be no better.
Plus Endy, who is supposed to back up Alou, happened to be out at the same time. I don’t think Endy is an everyday player, but he absolutely can put up respectable numbers for 2-3 weeks at a time. Certainly he will do better than Gomez, Newhan, Ledee, Johnson, etc. did this year.
Fukudome has upside, though. Worst case, he’s a slightly more productive Endy Chavez. Best case, he’s puts up an OPS+ of 110 to 120 and gives us great defense. We do have lots of flyball pitchers and I like the idea of an airtight outfield defense.
hmmmm, I do hear ya JK. Good points on the possible upside and having a defensively airtight OF.
Alou amazingly had 1.8 defensive win shares for 2007, I was surprised it wasnt negative lol. I’m sure its one of the lower ranking ones for Left fielders.
Not to be doubting anyone’s hopes for this Fukudome guy, but what are the expectations based upon ? Has he hit 330 with 35 hr’s / 120 rbi’s for 5 straight years ? Did some one say he’ll be a bargain at(3 yrs/$36.0m) ? We had one MVP from Japan completely fizzle and although Kaz has no bearing whatsoever on future Japanese players coming over, there is definitely only one Ichiro, & one Godzilla. I like Endy Chavez alot, but why bring a Japanese version of Endy over, make him the 2nd highest paid player on the team ? The guys who have proven themselves here, year after year, could easily resent seeing all this money given to an unproven commodity.
Who’s going to tell Omar to check in at Metsgeek daily? After last year’s moves, it is very clear he needs our help.
Fukadome? I really don’t know anything about him, have not even observed a u-tube catch, but if he does poorly and fans want to vent, he has the perfect name for it.
Bradley is out for the season, you can remove him from the list.
Castro can not be your #1 catcher. He is never healthy. There has to be a backup.
Saying that Endy and Ben johnson will pick up the offensive slack if Alou goes down is ridiculous. Endy had a career year in 2006. He was what he was last year…a slap hitter and what has anyone seen from Ben Johnson to say he can pick up the slack. I’m not sure he could pick up Alou’s jock at this point without getting hurt.
I love how we all make definitive statements about players performances….Milledge will bat this ( insert BA with x HRs,) Johnson will do that, Delgado will have a bounce back year…like saying it will make it so. The Mets best have some contingency plans in case of all of your sure things don’t work out so well. Okay, I’m done….carry on!
BTW…I realize you need to make assumptions and projections to put together a baseball team, but some of them just seem like wishful thinking to me. I think we need a touch of reality.
andy, fukodome has consistently shown amazing discipline at the plate, which is probably the thing most easily transferable to mlb. based on scouting reports, he also has gap power, which would play well in shea.
shea, castro’s career hasn’t involved any more injuries than the typical catcher. but i’m all for bringing in a good, cheap platoon partner to hedge the risk. ben johnson’s been very good in the minors his whole career and he’s approaching his prime. milledge has been amazing his whole career. it’s a pretty safe bet that players that perform well in the minors will be able to reproduce the success in the majors. that’s why i think johnson/endy can pick up the slack when alou goes down and that milledge will be at least league average from a corner outfield spot next year. these are realistic projections, not wishful thinking.
it’s fun to sit here and play GM. I pick up alot of info regarding other teams’ prospects/backups etc… But some of the comments are so unfounded, without factual backup. Just as an example,(not an attack), fukodome has CONSISTENTLY shown AMAZING discipline at the plate, which is probably the thing most easily transferable to mlb. based on scouting reports, he also has gap power, which would play well in shea. Consistently shown amazing discipline; does this mean no strike outs for 1 week ??? Does it mean (100 bb’s vs 15 k’s) for 5 straight seasons ? Scouts raved about Kaz Matsui. He was a league MVP - compared to all other players over there and voted superior. Omar is getting ripped left and right for signing Mota 2 yrs @ what maybe $3.0m/yr & Shoe for 3 yrs @ $3.5m/yr. People here are saying Fuko can get $36 m for a 3 yr deal? What GM is going to give away $36.0m, knowing that his job security is directly related to that kind of a deal.
Alou’s 1.8 Win defensive win shares should be transferred to their rightful owner: Carlos Beltran.
Fan favorite Endy Chavez was on pace for a 2007 similar to his 2007 until he got hurt. It seems evident to me that his “career year” in ‘06 was the result in a change in approach at the plate rather than random variance. Add to that his defense and low contract, and you have the ideal late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-hitter/pinch runner/4th outfielder and a player much more valuable than Shawn Green in ‘08.
Beltran in center, Milledge in right, Alou/Chavez/Gomez/Johnson in left. All 6 should not get hurt at the same time next year. Spend Fu’s money on pitching in ‘08 or ‘09.
In reality, we should take Alou’s 1.8 def. win shares, compare them with his actual total of -2.2, and hand Beltran the difference of 4 win shares which should bring his total to +15.
-2.2?
what’s that?
Just making the math easy.
andy, isoD for fukudome of .149, .087, .102, .090, .089 in the last five years. isoP .226, .302, .262, .292, .292. more doubles than homers over the last few years and he’ll be 31 next year. i hope that’s factual enough for you. i know you claimed it wasn’t an attack, but it still irks me a bit that you called me out after i tried to help you by giving you the scouting report you seemed to be asking for.