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October 10, 2007
Musings from a Depressed Fan, Part II
The overused phrase in this week’s article is “bottom line.” On Reyes First off, we should always explore the possibility of trading and moving players. It’s part of what we do as fans, and I’d hope that it’s part of what goes on in major league front offices. The question should always be asked: can we get better value for this player in trade than we get for him on and off the field? I think with Jose Reyes, the answer is clearly no. Here’s why: 1. Reyes will be 24 years old on Opening Day 2008. Yes, 24 years old. He happened to have a bad two months. It’s possible that Reyes has regressed, but I think that it’s a bit premature to make that assessment. Analytically, I think the evidence shows that Reyes changed his approach for the worse at some point in 2007: 2006 LD% + GB%: 66.1% That’s a substantial drop off, something to the tune of 36 balls in play that were hit in the air unnecessarily. Another sad number? 2006 HR/F: 10.6% What do these numbers signal to me? Remember, amateur at work here, but this fits what we saw down the stretch, too: 1. Reyes tried to swing for the fence too much, not discriminating well between pitches he could drive and pitches he couldn’t drive. Reyes needs to change his approach again to move away from the constant desire to drive the ball. I think he can do it. His strike zone judgment held up until the end of the year, it seemed, when he looked lost at the plate. Over the full year, Reyes actually saw more pitches per plate appearance than he did in 2006. He also walked more; the discipline has persisted. I’ve seen some pretty bad slumps, and Reyes’s wasn’t really out of the ordinary. Bottom line? I think Reyes will eventually develop into a 25-30 homer guy, and he’ll also scale back on the steals. In short, I think Reyes will be Jimmy Rollins but with a few more walks and better defense. And hey, that’s a legitimate MVP candidate. On Booing Booing, to me, seems to invite two different views from fans: 1. I paid for my ticket, I have every right to boo poor performance. I lean towards the first view, though I am sympathetic towards the second one. My philosophy on “booing” (if it can be said I have one) is that the fans have every right to boo, but they do run the risk of alienating players (depending on the personality). Booing A-Rod doesn’t make much sense. Booing poor middle relief, on the other hand, seems OK to me. And, to link my first two sections, I would only have booed Reyes when he failed to run out a ground ball, not when he made outs. Bottom line? I really don’t know how players react to booing. I’m sure it differs from player to player, so it’s probably ineffectual to make broad judgments on this one. On Chips I have the sinking feeling that Lastings Milledge will be an undeserving casualty of the collapse. Trading Milledge seems like a great way to address the problems of the team: no one seems to like the exuberance and celebrations, Milledge is a “head case,” and trading the kid could qualify as a “significant though not drastic” move that seems so sensible. But let’s be honest: the “Milledge waking up the Marlins” thing? This is an artificial story. If Glavine had pitched well, it would have been a non-issue. If Castro’s ball had gone 10 feet further, it’s a non-issue. I look at Milledge and I see an athletic, talented player who hit .272/.341/.446 at Shea Stadium at age 22. That’s an OPS+ of 106. He plays a good RF and he has a good arm, and he’s still 22. To me, Gomez is a more sensible trading chip. Why? I like to employ the concept of “range of outcomes.” PECOTA measures this with a statistic it calls “Beta.” More qualitatively, though, what are we looking at? - Milledge could be an excellent player, posting batting averages near .300 and slugging percentages right around .500. He plays good defense. At the very worst, Milledge most likely will not decline from his present level, which would be serviceable and affordable for 4-5 seasons. Range: Average - Borderline All Star - Gomez? Gomez hit .232/.288/.304 at age 21 in the majors, which—any way you slice it—sucks. He’s 21, but we can’t use the simple “hold your own at a very young age could represent a special player” argument. Gomez could be anything; we can project him into a 40/40 player, Carlos Beltran… or he could stagnate, like many toolsy players do. Range: Inept - Superstar Bottom line? If I got comparable value for the two in trade, I’m taking the sure thing! There is some logic to doing an Alou/Gomez thing in left, but I think the Mets might be better off locating another outfielder to spell Alou (count Alou in for 300-400 plate appearances) and trading Gomez. They do need to make some moves this offseason, and they’ll probably have to trade key chips in the process. On Priorities Josh Phelps. Yeah, it doesn’t seem like much. But he’s come very cheap over the past few seasons (minor-league-contract cheap), and he’s a career .273/.344/.476 hitter. If Delgado completely falls off a cliff next year, Phelps is a good second option. He’s also right-handed, so thinking about spelling Delgado frequently against lefties makes a good deal of sense. I use Phelps as one example of my thought process for this offseason: the Mets number one priority has to be in “insurance.” Last week, I wrote about things that are possible but not likely. Delgado could bounce back to ‘06 form next year. He could remain at his present level or close to it. Or he could be 2003 Mo Vaughn. All are possible; the Mets need to be prepared for any of those outcomes. If Delgado is awful next year, the Mets need to have an option in place to spell him. Not preparing for this eventuality in the offseason will mean that the Mets will be forced to make an in-season trade. Since 2004, trading in-season has been extraordinarily difficult. And no, I don’t mean that Josh Phelps would put the Mets in the playoffs, and that’s certainly not a bold stroke. I’m only using him as an example. Bottom line? Unforeseen problems will arise, but the ones that can be predicted and anticipated should be addressed pro-actively. 18 Responses to “Musings from a Depressed Fan, Part II”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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Good analysis, Dan.
However, I DO believe that Omar Minaya needs to make a bold splash - but WITHOUT trading away Reyes, Wright or Beltran.
I propose the Mets should at least try to snag Adam Dunn from the Reds - even if that means trading away Milledge (who could replace Griffey).
A trade for Dunn makes all the sense in the world. He could replace the oft-injured Alou in LF (bringing durability and production) and eventually replace Delgado at 1B after 2008. Plus, should Delgado be re-signed if he does have a monster 2008, all the better - making it a win-win situation for the Mets.
Another good one, Dan. In a bad FA market and an environment where trades are very hard to accomplish, it’s going to be the little moves that make or break this team in 2008. The Mets simply don’t have a farm system deep enough to pull off a blockbuster trade. That is a huge problem in a weak FA market like we have this year. I would let LoDuca go and look into signing Michael Barrett, who is a few years younger and should still have some good offensive years left in him. For second base I would inquire about Josh Barfield. The guy has struggled, but he has a ton of talent and has been made expendable in Cleveland by Asdrubal Cabrera. It should not take a big prospect to get him and he could turn out to be a steal. I would bring Alou back for another year and give ITAM the right field job. The starting pitching looks like it could be a strength next year with Pedro, Maine, Ollie, El Duque and one of the young guns in the 5th slot. The bullpen needs a big-time makeover. Wagner, Heilman, Feliciano and Show look like locks to be back. Dump Mota ASAP. Omar will have to get creative in finding solutions in the middle innings. I wouldn’t be upset with bringing in a Riske or Linebrink, but Omar might have to bring a dozen guys to camp and see who sticks.
Phelps??? I mentioned him toward the beginnng of the year and i got BLASTED for it. I agree on that Dan.
BOOOOO ;-)
Very much enjoyed your thoughts, Dan. Everyone was saying that Jose could easily hit 25 home runs this year, and he bought into it. I agree with you that he certainly can hit that many. But he just needs to concentrate on waiting for this pitch and trying to hit line drives. The home runs will come that way. And definitely don’t trade him.
Booing? I written several times about my unhappiness about booing someone who is clearly trying. It really bothered me that people not only booed Kaz Mat for example, but developed a hate for him. The poor guy did his best and was probably negatively affected by the boos. If someone isn’t hustling, that’s another story.
Phelps? Well, I would prefer that they try to keep Shawn Green for some outfield duty and insurance if Delgado goes down or just plain sucks. I’ve read that this defense at first last year was rated “outstanding”. By the way, Green did get a gold glove in right in (I think) 1999. I guess that means that, at the very least, he doesn’t drop or bobble the balls that he gets to, and does not make throwing errors as an outfielder. Is he possibly a better defensive outfielder than Metsgeeks give him credit for?
I am hoping that when spring comes around, we still have Gomez, we still have Milledge, and we still have Humber and maybe Pelfrey (I am beginning to have more and more doubts about him as starter, but maybe a relief pitcher). I don’t think big trades are in order for 2008. Maybe before 31 July.
Green as an alternative to Delgado is problematic since he is also a lefty who can’t hit lefties. His RF defense is awful. A GG in 1999 is 8 yrs ago. He’s not at that level any longer.
Mota must go.
Torrealba for catcher.
Dan, I completely agree with is especially you assessment of Milledge/Gomez.
Milledge for Dunn would be one of the worst trades I have ever heard of.
minorleague,
I would like to see if Mota can solve his problems with a real spring training and a fresh start. He still had some stuff this year he just didn’t use it right at all. If he is having a horrible ST cut him, if he starts off the season horribly cut him, but I give him a shot to start next year at least.
Shawn Green can’t hit lefties, and has the range of a bucket of sand. He’s also made redundant by the presence of Marlon Anderson on team.
Excellently done as always, Dan.
Reyes, age 24 season: .280/.354/.421, 104 OPS+
Rollins, age 24 season: .263/.320/.387, 88 OPS+
Furcal, age 24 season: .275/.323/.387, 87 OPS+
We really don’t appreciate how young and good he is.
James SC, I would also like to see if Mota can solve his problems…..as a Yankee.
Doc, does Green really have the range of a “bucket of sand”. I don’t get to see many games but why has his defense at first been described by some sports writers as “outstanding”? The reference was made also in comparison to Delgado, who does have the range of this bucket from what I have seen. I also buy that he has lost a step or two since 8 years ago, but how can he go from gold glove to horrible?
I agree with you about Reyes Danny. He’s a keeper. He is still very young and should only get better.
I know that my persistence about writing about Shawn Green is probably getting old fast - at least among Metsgeeks his stock is not high to say the least - but he was one of the few not to fold in the end. In Sept, he batted .407 with a 1.08 OPS. He batted .291 overall. Yes, his RBI total over the year was quite pathetic, but I really have this feeling that the is going to have a revival. No, he won’t hit 49 home runs again, but, if anyone gives him a real chance, I am predicting two solid years from him.
The problem with bringing Shawn Green back is that guys like him are a dime a dozen. He’s a lefty who can hit .280 with no punch in his bat and struggles to hit lefty pitching. You can find a million guys like that at minimal salaries who are not 34 years old. The Mets already have Chavez and Gotay as lefties off the bench. I would bring Marlon Anderson back as the primary pinch hitter and try to find a righty with some pop for the bench. As for Mota, I’d be willing to see if he can work things out in ST as long as there are other options available. H can’t be considered a primary option.
reyes may or may not be a future HOFer but even exact duplicates of last year is pretty f’ing good. i bet he improves which will be plenty of offense from a quality feilding SS.
I like the analysis on milledge/gomez too. one thing we seem to have is a couple extra OF chips so hopefully we find a trading partner that is betting on the high ceiling of gomez.
Trading Reyes is one of the worst ideas floating around out there. If we trade Reyes we will be watching him be awesome for some other team for the next decade. If that is even a twinkle in the eyes of the Mets management they need to be swept up by the baseball gods into some “It’s a Wonderful Life” scenario where they have to go see the Mets for the next ten years without Jose and then watch him kick ass and win a WS with some other team.
Green is replaceable, he’s not really worth debating, either keep him or not, it doesn’t really matter, he’s at best a platoon player. What does matter is the bullpen and at least one starting pitcher. I don’t want to see Milledge traded either, it wouldn’t be as egregious as Reyes, but we need Milledge, it’s not as if we have extra full time outfielders lying around.
What do people think about the idea of adding Joe Torre as a coach under Willie ? He would bring a calming incluence plus would bring insight that would likely benefit Willie. And if Mariano River were to follow him, the bullpen could again be a strength. For Glavine replacements, please Omar, no to Livan Hernandez & Contreras. Despite both fitting our nationality requirement, they are both way past their prime. We dont need more starters whose ERA’s will be over 5.00.
Many thanks, Dan, great work as always.
Reyes in the first half of 2007 was better than 2006 Reyes. How do you give up on a guy that looked like a budding ultra-star on Aug 1 at age 24 because of a 2 month slump? The guy fell into his old bad habits and his performance suffered. But he’s making progress. This guy’s going to be a stud for a long time once he figures it all out, and he is figuring it out.
Re. Comment 16, we don’t need Torre on the bench. Torre is the same type of guy as Willie — bas tactical manager with good player handling skills. They do need a bench coach who will fill in Willie’s weaknesses — i.e., a good tactician who can help Willie make the right decisions by waging war on the gut.