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September 22, 2007
Next year´s roster
Well, maybe it´s a bit early, but thinking about next year´s roster is a nice distraction from the current stress. Barring major trades, most of next year´s starters are set. The main areas of concern are catcher, second base, and corner OF. And pitching, but we´ll get to that later. So here are my thoughts on the 2008 roster. Catcher: LoDuca and Castro aren´t perfect, but they´ve been pretty good for the team. PLD doesn´t provide Piazza´s offense, but what catcher does? Outside of these two, the top free agents available are Michael Barrett, Yorvit Torrealba, and Javier Valentin, none of whom offers a significant upgrade over the pair we have. An outside candidate is Ivan Rodriguez if the Tigers don´t exercise his option, but he´s older than LoDuca and may not give you anything better than what you´ve got. I can´t really evaluate potential trades, because there are just too many possibilities that I don´t know enough about to evaluate; the only name I´ve heard in this area is Ronnie Paulino from the Pirates. PLD wants to come back, and he does bring some fire to the team, so I think he´ll be back (1 year deal with options, or a 2 year deal max). Maybe Castro will be gone if he gets a better offer. Second Base: There´s just not much out there as a FA. I think the best bet would be a trade for Orlando Hudson, who is entering his final year in AZ. Barring that, Castillo will be back(on a one year deal with options), splitting time with Gotay, Easley, and maybe Ahern. Corner OF: Barring a trade, Lastings should be in one of the corners. As Gomez isn´t ready for full-time duty yet, the Mets will need someone to bridge the gap, and possibly act as a mentor. Alou has an option, and is likely to return. If the Mets decide to go longer term or want a younger body (and when was the last time the Mets wanted a younger body?{Well maybe Steve Phillips and his secretary, but that doesn´t count.}), the best free agent options are: Milton Bradley (good power and average, but a headcase and probably a bad influence on Milledge and Gomez, though maybe his passion would be a good thing for the team), Geoff Jenkins (not too old and has good power and skills when healthy; Mil has a team option), Shannon Stewart (not as much power as the other two, but with speed), and Kosuke Fukudome a Japanese FA. Dunn isn´t an option in my mind due to his defense and strikeouts. An outside possibility would be a trade for Griffey, who is entering the last year of his contract; he may not want to come to NY, but it may be his best shot at a postseason berth for the first time in his career. My bet: Alou comes back. Starting Pitching: Four spots, and potentially five, are already set, with Pedro, Duque, Maine and Perez under contract, and Glavine having his choice of returning. Despite their success, this is not a rotation that gives me any confidence. I like Pedro, and I think he´ll be healthy and above average ( assuming he´s healthy I see the Mets trying to extend him for 2009 to inaugurate the new stadium). Duque can be brilliant, but he´s also old and brittle. He could be an option as a long man/spot starter too. Maine seems to me to be a guy that is an OK fourth starter, but the league will eventually figure him out; I´ve heard that his fastball is pretty straight. Ollie can be brilliant, but is prone to bouts of inconsistency (and he´s a free agent after next season, with an agent in Boras´ office). As for Glavine, I´m not sure I want him back. He´s been pretty good this year, but I think it´s time to move on. Pelfrey and Humber could force their way into the rotation, but they have been inconsistent too, and the Mets don´t seem inclined to give too much leeway to youngsters. What´s going to happen here? I don´t know, but I wouldn´t be surprised to see Omar try for a big trade, packaging a combination of Maine or Perez with one of the OF young guys (and maybe other prospects) for a big gun: Oswalt, Sabathia, Santana, or on a lower level someone like Aaron Harang (look up the numbers…he´s pretty damn good, especially in a hitter´s park). One of the goals should be a guy who can pitch deep into games, taking some of the heat off the pen. Relief: Barring trades these are the set spots– Wagner, Heilman, Sanchez, Feliciano, Mota, and Schoenweis. Assuming seven spots to fill, that leaves in-house options Joe Smith, Dave Williams, Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey. Burgos is rehabbing, I don´t see Padilla being an option, Collazzo and Muniz and Schmoll will be in NO. Best Free Agents available are both closers– F.Cordero from Milwaukee, and Joe Borowski from Cleveland. I think Borowski is an outside possibility to be a set-up man/substitute closer; he´s from Bayonne, went to Rutgers, is 36 years old and looking at his probable last contract. Cleveland has two other guys (Betancourt and Perez) who were outstanding setup guys and may be ready to close games. If we could get him, it´d be a great move. Bench: 5 spots– Endy (FA next year), Gotay, Easley, backup catcher, and Marlon Anderson. Part of me wants Omar to really shake things up, with the main needs being a top-flight starter and a corner OFer. What do I think will happen? Alou, PLD, and Castillo will all be back, and the everyday lineup will look pretty much the same. Milledge or Gomez could be gone in a trade for a pitcher, in which case we might need another OFer. Glavine´s return is a tossup at this point. If the starting pitching is the same as this year I see similar results: competitive in the standings, a bit injury prone, and with an exhausted bullpen by September. Likely lineup: PLD, Delgado, Castillo, Reyes, Wright, Alou, Beltran, Milledge / Pedro, Glavine,Maine, Ollie, Duque Ideal lineup: PLD, Delgado, Hudson, Reyes, Wright, Milledge, Beltran, Jenkins/Griffey / Ace, Pedro, Maine, Ollie, Pelfrey What do you want to happen (besides getting rid of Mota)? What do you think will happen? 35 Responses to “Next year´s roster”Leave a ReplyYou must be logged in to post a comment. |
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I think Glavine will retire. I also think Duque as good as he is needs to think about that option as he keeps breaking down.
O-Dog would be awesome but castillo will be here next year for sure.
Mota, Sele, Heilman, Gomez and either Ollie or Maine will get traded for something very necessary. Just my GUT talking ;)
you are busy on the journals today Espana ;)
I also think that Alou (who has been so great since he returned) may not be an option as he is very injury prone and getting OLD. If they have a platoon for him and keep it that may work. Alou/Endy would be nice. Alou/Jenkins would also be nice as Jenks has some Power and is a firey guy.
We’ll see.
On more corner OF option just appeared on the market Bonds? I will never happen but we’ll dealing hypothetical now right.
Other relievers-In house, Duaner Sanchez, Muniz, and later in the season Kunz, Rustich, Morgan, McDonald, some these guys should all move through the system fairly rapidly, similar to Joe Smith. FA-Riske(KC good peripherals), JC Romero, Oliver, and Franciso Cordero is out there but will 1)be expensive and 2)go where he can close.
Hey Gus- I mentioned Cordero, but he´ll definately close somewhere. I don´t think Oliver will be back, and I´ll have to look up Riske and Romero. I´ve got Duaner listed, but don´t think Muniz will be an option at the beginning. It´d be real optimistic to count on any of the other guys being ready next year.
And I wouldn´t want Bonds for any reason, even if it made the difference between going to the postseason and going home. He´s a cheater and a cancer, and his knees are shot.
Sorry Dave, I read it too quickly, I think Catcher could be the big change this winter, esp. if Castro leaves. I think that’s less likely after the recent back issue, but you never know. I think it’s a given that DET picks up the option on Pudge, so it’s probably PLD, Barrett or a trade, I don’t think Omar’s a Torrealba fan. If PLD has a great post season, there’s a chance he’ll be back, but my guess is it comes down to Barrett or Paulino. But the PLD deal came out of nowhere, so you never know. I hope Omar at least checks to see what it would take to get Salty from TEX.
I suggested Salty a ways back, but it seems that many here don’t like him. Feel he’s overrated. I think he’s a bit young to make that the final verdict. He’s only 22, I believe. The Rangers have moved him to 1st.
I don’t want any part of PLD for 2008. He’s a drain on the offense already, he’ll be 36, and he doesn’t play great defense. If you’re going to start a sub-.700 OPS catcher, you might as well have somebody who can throw back there. At his age and considering all the innings he’s caught, PLD is a good bet to decline further. I wouldn’t mind bringing Castro back and bringing in a solid, defensive-oriented backup.
Castro is too injury prone to be an everyday catcher, imo!
Player G GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 HR9 ERA RA RA+ VORP
Tom Glavine 32 32 195.0 9.46 2.82 3.92 0.92 3.97 4.11 1.15 37.6
Orlando Hernandez 24 24 144.0 6.62 3.75 7.75 1.38 3.75 3.94 1.19 30.2
John Maine 30 30 178.3 8.13 3.58 7.92 1.16 4.04 4.39 1.07 27.9
Oliver Perez 27 27 165.3 7.68 4.19 8.82 1.14 3.43 4.46 1.05 24.5
Billy Wagner 63 0 65.3 7.16 2.76 10.74 0.69 2.34 2.62 1.79 23.2
Glavine has been the best pitcher on this staff this year reguardless of what anyone thinks. His VORP is far av\bove the others. So not signing him if hes available is a big mistake. You dont get rid of pitchers who NEVER miss a start., who can you 15 games every year.
heres the link if you cant read that chart
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=nyn
Sign castillo for next year with Gotay as his and Reyes backup. Its time to get rid of anderson hernandez, Kiger is better and will take his spot in AAA. The OF next year will be Alou, Beltran, Milledge. With endy beign 4th OF again and Gomez getting a full year in AAA.
The Rotation next year should be Pedro, Glavine,Maine, Ollie, Pelfrey with Duque as long/utility man to save his health .to possibly have him go in the playoffs if a starter gets hurt or is just lousy.
The bench - omar will get good guys ,hopefully including marlon anderson, endy,easley. I dont want to resign green as a PH because you know willie will use him in RF vs righties. I want milledge to get a full season in RF to see what he has finally.
As for catcher. I really dont know, Im glad omar is deciding becasue its a cant win situation if you ask me.
No way I trade DW to get santana, now maine or perez I do for sure. Maine might be more of what Minnesota is looking for because hes locked up for a while yet. heres my trade Maine, Mulvey and one of Milledge, Gomez or F-Mart for Johan Santana.
can you Imagine having a rotation of
Pedro
Santana
Glavine
Ollie
Pelfrey next year?
Schnieder triple LETS GO Gnats!!!!!!!!!!!
okay. hi. i disagree with almost everything everybody here has written, but the one thing i want to address is: luis castillo. why would anyone want luis castillo on this team next year? he will be 32 and has bad knees. he has a lifetime ops+ of 93. he is hitting 295/354/348 overall this year. the average 2b has hit about 280/340/418. last year he hit 296/358/370 while the average 2b hit 280/332/395. the trend continues, and that trend is luis castillo being an extremely mediocre player. maybe his defense counted for a lot at one point, but even his defense is now only a shade above average, if at all. why would we want to give him a free agent contract when we’ve got a younger, far cheaper, just as mediocre player available in ruben gotay? he’s only 25, makes the league minimum, and is just as good as castillo - maybe slightly less of an on-base threat, but also more of a power threat. granted, he’s not too good from the right side. so let anderson hernandez start against tough lefties. that’s our 2b and backup middle infielder both for far less than what it would take to sign castillo, and we’d get the same production. we can use the extra cash for whatever.
Wood– thanks for the pitching stats. I guess Glavine is still valuable, but I´d love to see the team move in a younger direction–not younger just for the sake of being younger, but younger and good. Until that´s a possibility I guess I can live with Glavine for 1 more year!
Santana trade–much as I´d like to just trade Maine, Mulvey and an OF for Santana, I don´t think that´d get it done. I read recently that if the Twins would consider trading Santana, one of their main goals would be a good 3B, as they don´t have anyone there right now. I think they´re OK with pitching (if Liriano comes back healthy), so that´s not their primary goal.
e-poc–I wouldn´t use the numbers you cite to say that Castillo is ¨extremely mediocre¨. He´s above average for 2B in average and OBP, with only his power game being sub-par. What the numbers don´t show is the other side of the game–his defense is still good, because he makes up for in positioning what he has lost in range or mobility. He´s a very good #2 hitter. And most importantly, the Mets management loves the way he plays. Letting Gotay play a couple of days a week to rest Castillo´s knees, while learning ¨at the feet of the master¨, will only help his future game and the Mets future options at the position. One more year of Castillo, maybe with an option due to health reasons, is a good deal all around.
Dave….couldn’t have said it better myself. Resign Castillo ( as in sign again.) Hopefully playing on grass instead of that fake stuff he played on will help his knees. he’s much better than Gotay defensively and a good #2 hitter.
i think your narrative description of castillo’s offensive abilities is kind of misleading. the stats show that while his on-base skills are .016 higher than average, his slugging skills are .070 lower. although on-base pct. is more important than slugging, his decent obp does not come close to making up for his atrocious slug pct. i don’t really know what other numbers possibly express the overwhelming mediocrity of castillo’s hitting. and actually, defensive numbers do show the other side of castillo’s game, and they suggest that he’s actually not very good at defense. he’s at -12 fielding runs above average on the year, according to baseball prospectus. the only other numbers i could find in my moment of research had him at -2 runs saved above average per 150 games last year. gotay is at -6 fraa on the year. the unfortunate fact is that castillo is a mediocre (if that) player in all aspects of the game, and his age and health problems are causing him to decline. gotay, on the other hand, is mediocre but still improving, and best of all, he costs about 1/20th what castillo does/will. re-signing castillo is not a good or smart move by any objective measure.
Our opinions differ on this epoc, but that´s OK– that´s what makes it interesting. There´s more to baseball than numbers. My only concern about signing Castillo is his knees, and I´m sure the Mets can evaluate that better than I, and structure a deal accordingly.
I don´t know who originally said it: There are 3 ways to mislead people: lies, damn lies, and statistics. (Not saying that stats don´t have their very valuable role, but they don´t tell the whole story.)
Without castillo we don’t have a guy we can throw in the number 2 spot and have any amount of certainty in him. People can think about millege being ready but in reality hes still shaky and i wouldn’t want to have to put him in the number 2 spot just yet. I think you resign castillo and possibly platoon the two of them. It wouldn’t be the first time omar signed an older guy to teach someone of the younger ones.
I though heilman’s contract was up after this year. If that is the case i doubt he’ll return if he still is interested in being a starter.
I’d reasonably hope for a starting lineup of:
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Alou
Delgado
LoDuca
Milledge
And a bench of:
Chavez
Anderson
Gotay
Castro
Easley if he’s healthy/FA right-handed first-baseman if he’s not.
I’d hope that over the course of the year, Gotay and Castillo become a platoon and near the end of the year, Gomez gets into the mix as Alou probably will break down at some point… setting up Gomez and Gotay as the starting leftfielder and second baseman in 09.
You also hopefully get yerself a big firstbaseman and a biggish catcher next off-season.
Pitchers, ya got…
Ollie
Pedro
El Duque
Maine
Pelfrey
…and Humber waiting in AAA in case of injury.
Bullpen of…
Wags
Sosa
Heilman
Feliciano
And then some mix of:
Schoeneweis
Mota
Smith
Sanchez
Burgos
Padilla
As the backend of the bully.
Hopefully Mota ain’t one of them.
littlefalls– I´m in agreement. The only questions are if Glavine comes back does Pelfrey stay in AAA, or does Pelfrey or Duque go to the pen. Also, I don´t think Burgos will be back from his surgery next year (at least not before late in the season), so cross him off the list. I´d love to see a strong pen addition, like one of those I mentioned above.
so no one’s with me on the castillo thing, huh? how ’bout lo duca? anyone want to go to bat for me on the opinion that we should cut ties with lo duca as soon as possible? i won’t even quote any stats to explain why i feel that way. i just hate him. he dated my sister once and was extremely ungentlemanly.
on a meta-level, is there anyone here who thinks that it’s good policy to systematically integrate young, cheap players around your core of elite veterans, ensuring sustainable success, rather than continuing to pay and play declining veterans? does anyone else think about money as an issue when suggesting future moves? does anyone think about team-building according to long term plans rather than year by year sprints? just curious.
epoc- Yeah, I do like to mix in younger players. But the younger players have to be good, not just young. And there have to be some vets on the bench, as I´ve come to believe that there´s much to be said for experience. e.g. Easley, Marlon Anderson etc over AHern as a pinch hitter,who hasn´t proven anything. I would have loved to see the team go with Jesus Flores with Castro as a backup next year, but Omar miscalculated on that one big time.
Salaries are another issue. I think the Mets are positioned well to go after some serious FAs after 2008 (e.g. Santana, Sabathia, Teixeira), with a lot of money coming off the books (Glavine, Delgado[team option for 09], Alou). I hope that Milledge and Gomez step up and are both ready to be regulars in 2009. I think the Mets will extend Pedro for 09, and I´d love to see a rotation of Santana,Pedro, Pelfrey, Humber, Perez(who´s a FA after 08)– that´s be a good mix of quality expensive vets and quality cheap younger players.
BTW, in 2009 the mets start collecting $20 million a year from Citibank for naming rights. It´d be tough to plead fiscal restraint on the FA market with that coming in.
Amen….
guys, the problem with your seemingly rational demand that young players be good and not just young is that you do not demand the same thing from veterans. you do not want to let a young, cheap, mediocre player play second base; you prefer to sign a (relatively) expensive, older, mediocre player to play second base on the basis of his “style of play” or perfection as a 2-hole hitter or experience. while it seems reasonable to demand skill from a young player, it is unreasonable to overlook a young player because of lack of skill and at the same time promote an old player with a lack of skill.
also, until money grows on trees and the economy collapses, fiscal restraint will always be a good idea.
Your problem here e poc is that flaws are in the eyes of the beholder. While you insist that Luis Castillo is flawed…many of us don’t. I don’t see Castillo as “an older player with lack of skill.”
epoc– Good debate here, but it´s clear that we have different views of Castillo, so we should just agree to disagree on this one. It´s like arguing religion with my sisters and their hubbies– I won´t convince them and they won´t convince me, so we just don´t deal with it. Cordially.
As to fiscal restraint– I love fiscal restraint, but you don´t use that to avoid signing the arguably best pitcher in the game. That would piss me off. I´m all for fiscal (and length of contract) restraint in the case of Barry Zito, but for Johan Santana–open the checkbook!! After all, it´s not my money…
;-}
you use fiscal restraint to avoid signing 32-year-old 2nd basemen with bad knees, no power and declining defensive skills and 36-year-old catchers with questionable defensive skills and ops+s of 84. that’s how you reserve enough money to sign the best players in the game.
also, i don’t think that my problem is that flaws are in the eyes of the beholder. castillo’s flaws do not exist in my eyes; they exist in castillo, as represented by the statistical evidence recorded. my problem, if you want to call it that, is that i insist on using objective evidence to debate baseball decisions. perhaps my problem, ultimately, is that i do not have feelings.
I’m with e poc on this one. On Castillo vs. Gotay, I’d say that Luis probably has the edge in defense, but not by a whole lot. That’s based on both yer nerd stats and my own observation. Ruben, on the other hand, very definitely has the edge in power. OBP-wise, they’re almost dead even.
At 32, Castillo isn’t likely to get any better. A best case scenario for Castillo in 2008 is that he doesn’t get any worse, or only declines slightly; while Gotay at 25 is quite likely to improve. The fact that Gotay will only cost 1/20th of Castillo’s salary makes it an easy choice, for me.
As for Lo Duca, I love him, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not sure that we don’t have the catching roles backwards right now.
Also, e poc: you may find it helpful to invest in an emotion chip. It will make it easier for you to make sentimental decisions about player contracts.
:)
Guys, even Gotay was quoted saying how good Castillo is on defense, and how much he (Gotay) was learning just by watching him. There´s more to baseball than numbers.
all right, dave. u win.
Keeping LoDuca is more a function of how bereft the FA market is of catching options this off-season, than anything else.
For better or for worse, probably for worse, the best non-trade option the Mets have for a catcher in 2008 is Paul LoDuca.
I sure as hell hope something would pop up better next off-season, though.
I want Gotay to be the second baseman of the future, as well, but he’s not a polished hitter from both sides of the plate and his defense still has a way to go.