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August 2, 2007
  
Month in Review: July
by: Alex Nelson on Aug 2, 2007 12:15 AM | Filed under: Articles

Month in Review is MetsGeek’s monthly state of the Mets address, examining every aspect of the team’s performance over the last thirty days. You may find our previous installments from this season here: April, May, and June.

The Mets started off their July exactly as they had played in June, going 2-6 before the All-Star break. However, after the season’s second half began, they won three of the next five series, losing only one. Not a great performance by any stretch of the imagination, but much better than the disaster that had been their post-Memorial Day season up to that point. Overall, the team went 13-14 in July, a small improvement over their 12-15 June.

Here’s how they played, team-by-team:

Team               W     L    RS    RA
Cincinnati         3     1    14    13
Colorado           0     3    12    34
Houston            2     2    14    17
Los Angeles        3     1    28    22
Milwaukee          0     1     2     4
Philadelphia       0     1     3     5
Pittsburgh         2     1    18    15
San Diego          1     2    12    10
Washington         2     2    15    13

Home/road:

Split         W     L    RS    RA
Home          7     4    47    41
Away          6    10    71    92

For the second straight month, the Mets played better at home than on the road. Run differential splits:

Split           W     L
1 run           3     2
2-3 runs        5     3
4-5 runs        4     7
6+ runs         1     2

Fewer blowouts this month—there were eight in June, and only one more one-run game. The vast majority of the games were in the middle two categories with the Mets doing much better in games decided by two or three runs.

Comings: Mike Pelfrey (twice!), Jason Vargas, Sandy Alomar Jr., David Newhan (twice!), Dave Williams, Lastings Milledge, Chip Ambres, Marlon Anderson, Anderson Hernandez, Jon Adkins, Mike DiFelice, Luis Castillo

Goings: Jason Vargas, Ricky Ledee, Julio Franco, Dave Williams, Mike Pelfrey (twice!), David Newhan, Chip Ambres, Joe Smith, Anderson Hernandez, Sandy Alomar Jr., Jon Adkins

Injuries: Jorge Sosa, Oliver Perez, Carlos Gomez, Jose Valentin, Carlos Beltran, Paul Lo Duca

That’s a lot of roster management.

Stat                           June     July
Runs Scored:                    106      118
Runs Allowed:                   119      133
Team OBA:                      .308     .325
Team SLG:                      .409     .413
Team BA with RISP:             .236     .283
Opponents’ OBA:                .314     .328
Opponents’ SLG:                .402     .411
Opponents’ BA with RISP:       .254     .293
Starters’ ERA:                 3.98     5.02
Starters’ K/9:                  6.0      6.8
Starters’ BB/9:                 3.0      3.7
Starters’ HR/9:                0.98     1.40
Relievers’ ERA:                4.68     3.59
Relievers’ K/9:                 7.9      6.6
Relievers’ BB/9:                3.0      3.2
Relievers’ HR/9:               1.02     0.72

The offense really let the team down in June, but the pitching did so in July. While the offense wasn’t amazing, it rebounded a little, particularly in getting on base and hitting with runners in scoring position. Unfortunately, the opposing teams did better in both categories. The primary culprit was walks, which rose significantly in July for the starters and slightly for the relievers. The starters’ difficulties were likely due to the injuries to Oliver Perez and especially Jorge Sosa, who never quite got going after getting back to the rotation. Spot starters Mike Pelfrey, Jason Vargas, and Dave Williams didn’t help much, either.

Longest Winning Streak: 3 (7/22-7/25)

Longest Losing Streak: 4 (7/1-7/4)

Pitchers “Beaten”: (Not necessarily the pitcher who took the loss) Jason Jennings, Woody Williams, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Belisle, Kyle Loshe, Jake Peavy, Derek Lowe, Brett Tomko, Eric Stults, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Tim Redding, Billy Traber

Pitchers “Beaten by”: (Again, not necessarily the pitcher who got the win) Kyle Kendrick, Jason Hirsh, Aaron Cook, Josh Fogg, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Aaron Harang, David Wells, Greg Maddux, Brad Penny, Paul Maholm, Mike Bacsik, Joel Hanrahan, Jeff Suppan

This is one of those months where I can’t make rhyme or reason of who beat the Mets and who didn’t.

Best Hitter: It’s been a while since I’ve been able to say this, but Carlos Delgado had a very nice month. He hit .323/.414/.525 over 99 at bats, playing every game over the month. It should be noted that David Wright (.902 OPS), Ruben Gotay (.923 OPS), and Ramon Castro (1.147 OPS!) had great months also. If Castro played just a little more, he’d be the big winner. June winner: David Wright

Worst Hitter: Paul Lo Duca manages to steal the “honor” from June’s “winner” Shawn Green. The thankfully injured catcher hit just .217/.239/.304, leading many to call for Castro to be given an extra start or two a week. Lo Duca’s prolonged slump demonstrates the importance of secondary offensive skills; they provide a cushion for slumping players so they’re providing some value to their teams. June winner: Shawn Green

Best Pitcher: John Maine takes the prize for the second straight month. Maine went 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA. The ERA isn’t fantastic, but his peripheral stats were strong: 29 strikeouts, eight walks, and four homers allowed over 30.3 innings. It’s nice to see that he’s refined his control, while keeping his strikeouts up. Oliver Perez had a fantastic month, too (1.40 ERA), but pitched eleven fewer innings than Maine due to his injury. June winner: John Maine

Worst Pitcher: Jorge Sosa was really, really bad. Maybe he was feeling jealous because I was actually starting to feel more comfortable with him on the mound than Tom Glavine, so he decided to revert back to the guy who pitched for the Braves and Cardinals last year. His stat line for July: 0-3, 18 innings, a 6.50 ERA, nine strikeouts, eight walks, three homers allowed. June winner: Tom Glavine

Best Pitching Performance: John Maine’s great start against the Astros on July 5th. Not only did Maine make it into the eighth inning, allowing just six hits and two walks while striking out nine, but his effort halted a four-game losing streak, also. He was also having a fine start against the Nationals at the end of the month before that one was disrupted by rain. June winner: Jorge Sosa

Best Defensive Play: Carlos Beltran’s amazing catch scaling Tal’s Hill in Houston on July 7th. It was a fantastic play under difficult circumstances, and it saved the game in the fourteenth inning for the Mets. Probably the best defensive play of the year to date. June winner: Carlos Gomez

Biggest Surprise: Ruben Gotay. Thanks to Gotay, the team didn’t miss a beat when Jose Valentin got injured and Damion Easley went on the bereavement list—in fact, it actually improved considerably, as Gotay hit .397 over July. It’s a pity we won’t get to see what Gotay can do as a full time player over the rest of the season due to the acquisition of Luis Castillo. June winner: Carlos Gomez

Biggest Disappointment: Pedro Feliciano. Feliciano was so lights-out during the season’s first half, that the bullpen feels so much emptier with him struggling. He’s only one guy, and a pitcher who typically doesn’t face many batters at that, but he’s seen some of the highest leverage situations of any man in the bullpen. Feliciano’s control was never his strongest asset, but it got out of hand in July; he walked six batters over nine innings and change and hit Prince Fielder with a pitch the other night. June winner: Joe Smith

Luckiest Player: While it may seem unfair that Castillo is taking Ruben Gotay’s job, the latter’s decline seems probable. Gotay has a chance at being a decent player, but I certainly don’t see him as a .350 hitter. His .411 BABIP is not sustainable, even if he continues to hit a line drive 26.5% of the time, which isn’t likely either. June winner: Tom Glavine

Unluckiest Player: Here’s another question for you: who leads the National League in line drive percentage? Paul Lo Duca, at 24.3%. Yet, his BABIP is only .283, a full sixty points lower than you’d expect. Considering Lo Duca has always been a line drive slap hitter, it’s safe to figure he was quite a bit unlucky during his .217 July. Expect a bit of a bounceback when he gets healthy. Of course, it still doesn’t mean Castro shouldn’t get more playing time. June winner: Billy Wagner

What’s in Store for August: Once again, the Mets have more road games than home games. They start things off by finishing up their series with the Brewers before moving on to Chicago to face their primary competition, the Cubs. Then the Mets return home for a big series against Mark Teixeira and the Atlanta Braves. The Florida Marlins come to Shea immediately after. After a day off, the Mets hit the road again for series in Pittsburgh and Washington before returning home to host the Padres and Dodgers. Finally, the Mets play four in Philadelphia before playing heading to Atlanta to close out August.

The offense needs to continue to make up for the loss of Carlos Beltran, but the pitching has to right itself, too. I’m not too worried about the starting pitching—getting a full month from Oliver Perez will help and hopefully Pedro’s return is on the horizon. However, the bullpen is looking slightly shaky thanks to the demotion of Joe Smith and the struggles of Pedro Feliciano. Somebody needs to take over that seventh inning, and I doubt it’s going to be Guillermo Mota.

References:
Stats are courtesy of David Pinto’s Day-by-Day Database and the Hardball Times, as always.

You can view Beltran’s catch at Mets.com’s Top Plays archive.


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