After taking three games from the Reds this past weekend, the Mets (51-40) hit the road to visit PETCO Park as the guests of the San Diego Padres (50-40). The Friars have allowed the fewest runs in the majors by a huge margin—51 runs, to be exact. While part of that can be attributed to playing in the majors’ worst park for hitters, a bigger reason is that their pitching staff is pretty great. From their starting staff, anchored by All-Stars Jake Peavy and Chris Young, to their bullpen, where Cla Meredith has the highest ERA at 3.48, they’ve gotten great pitching performances at every turn.

The Padres are sending out two veterans and one of the best young pitchers in the game. In the opener, fans can look forward to a showdown between the returning Jorge Sosa (7-3, 3.92) and the 44-year-old David Wells (4-5, 4.31). The Padres give Peavy (9-3, 2.19) the ball on Tuesday as Orlando Hernandez (5-4, 3.20) pitches for the Mets. Finally, John Maine (10-5, 2.91) and Greg Maddux (7-7, 4.35) start on Wednesday.

Game 1: David Wells

What’s the Story? At the age of 44, David Wells might finally be losing his touch, which is an odd thing to say about a pitcher who currently has an ERA under 4.50. The ERA is mostly a function of PETCO, however, and the one thing Wells does really, really well anymore—limiting walks—hasn’t been quite as sharp as it needs to be for him to maintain long-term success. He’s already walked more batters than he has in any season since 2002. His command is still pretty good if no longer superhuman, which is important because he doesn’t have much in the way of stuff: a straight, high-80’s fastball, a slow hook, a plus change, and an average slider.

Last Year: Wells hasn’t made a start against the Mets since 2004, when he just missed a complete game shutout. Over his career, he’s 4-1 against the Mets with a 2.73 ERA while averaging less than a walk per nine innings.

What to Expect: Wells will mostly work with his fastball and curve while mixing in the change. He’ll try to keep the fastball low in the zone, working it on the outside corner, while he’ll throw the curve to almost the same sport every time: low and away to lefties, down and in to righties. As I mentioned, Wells’ command isn’t quite what it used to be, and he’s started walking a few more batters than normal. That might actually be beneficial: in the past when his command was off, he’d leave the ball out over the plate and would be hit hard. Unfortunately for Wells, the walks have not been accompanied by a reduction in his homerun rate.

Game 2: Jake Peavy

What’s the Story? After looking like one of baseball’s best young pitchers for two seasons, Peavy had a down year in 2004, posting an ERA just three percent better than average. The problem seems to have been visual in nature; a faulty contact prescription wasn’t fixed until late in the season. His walks and homeruns allowed were up slightly, though his strikeout rate was as strong as ever. This season, Peavy’s back to his old self, which is to say he’s been nearly unbeatable. He throws a very lively fastball that touches 95, a good changeup, and a fantastic slider than breaks away from righties. He’ll also throw a hard curveball every so often.

Last Year: Peavy made one start against the Mets last year, on April 20th. He was dominant, allowing just one run on four hits over seven innings. He struck out five and walked none.

What to Expect: Peavy’s a fantastic pitcher who’s at the top of his game in 2007. He’ll throw his fastball 60-65% of the time, using it to set up that nasty slider, which has enough bite to be used against lefties also. And the changeup gives him a very capable third weapon also. In high-pressure situations, Peavy has been shown to rely more on his slider than normal in an effort to get the big strikeout. Don’t expect him to give up homeruns: PETCO’s cavernous outfield and Peavy’s moderate groundball tendencies are a perfect match.

Game 3: Greg Maddux

What’s the Story? Future Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux signed a one-year $10 million deal with the Padres this past off-season after splitting 2006 with the Cubs and Dodgers. Maddux isn’t the perennial Cy Young winner he once was, but he still has his intelligence on the mound, his reputation, and the ability to throw strikes. However, his command isn’t great anymore—he doesn’t limit the homerun like he used to—and he gives up far too many hits for my taste. His repertoire includes a mid-to-high-80’s fastball, a good cutter, a great changeup, a slider and a curveball. He’s also an outstanding athlete who helps himself in the field and at the plate.

Last Year: The Mets faced Maddux three times in the regular season in 2006, and once in the post-season. Each time he was hit hard. In his three regular season starts, Maddux went 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA. He allowed 23 hits and four walks over 18.3 innings, while striking out thirteen. In the NLDS, Maddux started Game Three and went just four innings, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks.

What to Expect: Maddux is really just a shadow of what he used to be. His stuff is pretty similar, and he still considers the fastball low and away as the foundation of good pitching, but he’s not quite as reliant on that fastball as he formerly was. Like Tom Glavine, he’ll instead throw his breaking stuff more frequently, and cutters and sinkers have a more prominent part in his game plan than in the past. But without his flawless command, which is slowly abandoning him, Greg Maddux is really just another pitcher.

Overall: I’m not feeling this series. It’s bad enough that the team isn’t hitting great right now, but a trip to PETCO sure won’t help matters at all. The good news is that the Padre offense isn’t great, and their pitching will probably have a slim margin for error. Wells is exactly the sort of pitcher who’s been giving the Mets nightmares lately, and it’s difficult to ever bet against Jake Peavy. The only guy I think the Mets will beat is Maddux, while I imagine Maine will have a bounce-back after his last outing. I’d be more inclined to bet on the Mets in the first game, but considering it’s Sosa’s first game back from the DL, I’m picking the fat man and the Pads.