The Mets’ loss on Sunday to their city rivals meant that they’ve now lost five straight series, something they didn’t do at all in 2006. In fact, they never lost four straight series last season. In fact, the Mets’ run differential is rapidly narrowing, as they’ve now scored a mere 29 runs more than they’ve allowed, something that was unfathomable after April (maybe even after May). Monday, the Mets (37-30) hope to turn things around as interleague play continues with a set at home against the Minnesota Twins (34-33), who sit in the middle of the potent AL Central.

In the opener, Carlos Silva (4-7, 4.07) pitches against John Maine (6-4, 3.05). Johan Santana (6-6, 3.19) and Jorge Sosa (6-2, 3.42) will pitch in the second game, followed by Scott Baker (1-2, 7.33) and Oliver Perez (7-5, 2.93).

Game 1: Carlos Silva

What’s the Story? After two years of solid pitching featuring lots of groundballs and phenomenal control, Silva imploded in 2006, posting a 5.94 ERA in 180 innings. The biggest culprit was the homer—he allowed 38 of them last year, a huge amount for a groundball pitcher. This year, his homerun rate is lower than it’s ever been, resulting in a return to form for the righty, who features a low-90’s sinker, a decent slider, and a changeup he’s started throwing with more regularity this season.

Last Year: Silva has never made a start against the Mets, though he had made many appearances against them as a member of the Phillies’ bullpen in 2002 and 2003. Lifetime, he has a 10.22 ERA over twelve innings and change against the Mets.

What to Expect: Silva will throw a lot of sinkers, breaking up the monotony with sliders to righties and changeups to lefties. Despite getting a lot of groundballs with the sinker, Silva has had a tendency to give up the occasional longball, but that might not be necessarily true now; many of those homeruns came off an ineffective curve he’s since junked. Also, don’t expect many walks, as Silva has pinpoint control. He’ll put the ball in play often and as such will give up his fair share of hits.

Game 2: Johan Santana

What’s the Story? The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, Santana has emerged as the best pitcher in the game, with a fastball he can throw about 95, a high-80’s slider, and a fantastic high-70’s changeup with great movement. His control is almost perfect, and he generally does a decent job of keeping the ball in the park, though he’s had a little bit of difficulty this season due to his troubles with big flies. If you can call a 3.19 ERA trouble, that is.

Last Year: Santana didn’t pitch against the Mets last year, but has been nearly flawless in his two career starts against them. In thirteen innings, he’s allowed just nine hits, one walk, and two runs while striking out nineteen.

What to Expect: From a hitter’s perspective Johan is as frustrating a pitcher to face as you can imagine. He works very quickly, hits his spots and picks them wisely, rarely giving hitters something to drive. Furthermore, he’s great at replicating his pitching motion, making it tough for hitters to detect what’s coming. This year he’s been a little more human, leaving a few sliders up in the zone which has resulted in that inflated homerun rate (45% higher than last year). No matter what, it should be a tough game on Mets bats.

Game 3: Scott Baker

What’s the Story? The Twins were fairly high on Baker following a 2005 season in which he posted a 3.35 ERA over his first 53 innings in the big leagues. However, 2006 was a big letdown as Baker had severe difficulties adapting to the league. 2007 hasn’t been much better. Baker throws a fastball with some late life to it that peaks at around 94, a good curveball, a decent change, and a so-so slider.

Last Year: Baker’s never made a start against the Mets.

What to Expect: Baker’s strengths are his curveball and fantastic control, so expect him to use both to good effect. He’ll change speeds with his fastball and he’s not afraid to throw his fastball up in the zone. Unfortunately, he doesn’t quite have the velocity to get away with that, and he’s been burned badly, to the tune of 28 homers allowed over 164 innings lifetime. Otherwise, he’ll mix in a few changeups and maybe a slider or two. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, and will let hitters put the ball in play, relying on his defense, particularly his outfield defense.

Overall: Last series, I stayed optimistic and predicted the Mets would turn it around and beat the Yankees in two of three games. How was I rewarded for my good faith? With two losses, of course. So I’ve had it. No more optimism from me until the Mets earn it back. I’m picking the Twins to take the first two games, with the Mets doing just enough to take advantage of the hapless Baker, as the Mets’ most consistent pitcher plays his part. Otherwise, the Twins hand the Mets their sixth straight losing series.